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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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6 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Zzzzzzzzzzz, that’s about it.

54E94102-2EF5-44B6-8F5F-9764016BD48E.png

I would say, get to there, settled, await the next attack.

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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Baltic you say ?? It’s rubbish 

92486E0D-54DB-47EA-A533-117130309D85.png

9D90D01E-E486-4363-98F5-73763AFBE2E1.png

You're trusting the uppers at this range?? Fair play to you!
The synoptical set up is baltic. Could quite easily be a long fetch northerly!

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5 minutes ago, East801 said:

Time to look to spring now, let’s hope for some early warmth in the models in the next few weeks. Can we nudge a 14/15 deg by the end of the month...hopefully.

God I hope not. Spring and summer are reserved for those temps, not winter lol

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2 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

You're trusting the uppers at this range?? Fair play to you!
The synoptical set up is baltic. Could quite easily be a long fetch northerly!

Lol I don’t trust any model this winter 😁. Even if the uppers do improve as we get closer it’s will only be a glancing blow before it gets shunted into Europe . To much energy from the NW pushing it all to the side . 😞

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6 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Fwiw, the op cluster on the eps was the flattest of four ......not that any of the others are likely to be particularly wintry 

Not even in the extended?

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14 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Which really wouldn't be difficult blue!!

Horrendous outputs, i really hope people are not putting any hope in ukmo either..

 

 

Horrendous indeed...At this rate, we'll be lucky even to see a bit of 'heat snow'!😀

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Good grief, the PV fires up into an angry animal midway through the low res part of the pub run. Thankfully it's verification after 120 is normally way off... I still think there's hope... Maybe Feb will be eating his ice cream, but the men in the white coats will be coming for him!

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56 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not even in the extended?

Well yes maybe, but when the clusters are split like this all the way up to D15... I'm sure you will agree there's not much point in analyzing at any length

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019020412_288.

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019020412_360.

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8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Well yes maybe, but when the clusters are split like this all the way up to D15... I'm sure you will agree there's not much point in analyzing at any length

 

Yes -classic fake cluster signature there.

EDIT : and the 12z GEFS have now downgraded on the 18z - absolutely d

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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1 hour ago, East801 said:

I can’t recall a winter where almost every single major long range model has called this winter so badly. Their validity is at best mediocre. Far too much faith has been placed into this by many.

Granted the SSW has raised many of our expectations markedly, sadly the results we were hoping for haven’t materialised.

Not the winter many of us hoped for when the long range models were predicting such positive signals for coldies back in November.

Time to look to spring now, let’s hope for some early warmth in the models in the next few weeks. Can we nudge a 14/15 deg by the end of the month...hopefully.

A

 

 

Spanish Meto have been bang on the money with theirs, for Iberia. 

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I'm a complete novice to all of this, and I know that the Express is just a joke of a forecasting paper, but surely the good people at NetWeather would never allow rubbish like this to be published with their name on it?? 

(have to admit, I would love to see a real chart with that amount of cold aimed at us!)

Original article: https://www.express.co.uk/news/weather/1081520/uk-weather-forecast-snow-news-uk-met-office-bbc-radar-map-today-cold-warning

weather-1719722.jpg

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14 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Spanish Meto have been bang on the money with theirs, for Iberia. 

What did they forecast this winter? I take it the complete opposite to the other models forecasting  a higher than normal probability of HLB throughout the winter months which was a complete FAIL in the end. 

Edited by SLEETY
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3 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

What did they forecast this winter? I take it the complete opposite to the other models forecasting  a higher than normal probability of HLB throughout the winter months which was a complete FAIL in the end. 

Dry and settled. So that indicated (to me anyway) an AZH or mid-Atlantic High for much of Winter, which for most of Winter (so far) the HP has been there or thereabouts.

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1 hour ago, ICE COLD said:

1000000% no confidence in UKMO T144 . In any other year you would have had confidence in it but not this winter 😞

Not sure about this. Every signal leads us to believe this, but as you said maybe not this year. 😛 UKMO been my number one for many years, but only just started hunting the cold on model charts😨 10%

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2 hours ago, Mike Poole said:

I think there is something in this, actually.  I sense two things neither with any statistical evidence to back them up, and they are these:

  • I think that proper wintry outbreaks for the UK will become increasingly reliant on SSWs - how many major snow events in Southern England have occurred since Dec 2010 that hasn't had a SSW component?  1.  Dec 10 2017.
  • SSWs are likely to increase in likelihood given changes in Arctic sea ice and other indicators at or before the start of winter, as per Cohen's theory.  

Could be talking out of my backside, it's happened before, but I don't think the changes that are undoubtably happening to our planet all point in the direction of warmer winters for the UK, could be quite the opposite, we just don't know yet.

Good point Mike, on the other hand massive amounts of artic ice melting into the Atlantic ocean could also serve to switch off the gulf stream, throwing western Europe into the freezer. Mother nature may have a little trick up her sleeve as regards to this warming! And Yeh SSW very likely to increase as global temps increase annually, a lot could happen, still think its only a matter of time before we end up with a winter of a generation 👍

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2 hours ago, East801 said:

I can’t recall a winter where almost every single major long range model has called this winter so badly. Their validity is at best mediocre. Far too much faith has been placed into this by many.

Granted the SSW has raised many of our expectations markedly, sadly the results we were hoping for haven’t materialised.

Not the winter many of us hoped for when the long range models were predicting such positive signals for coldies back in November.

Time to look to spring now, let’s hope for some early warmth in the models in the next few weeks. Can we nudge a 14/15 deg by the end of the month...hopefully.

A

 

 

Bar humbug! 14-15 degrees!! This is the hunt for cold thread, what we wanna see is - 14 to - 15 uppers! Plenty of time for them temps you seek...... Like let's say May or June 😒

Edited by Mattwolves
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2 hours ago, Catacol said:

We will know more after another 10 years or so, and with ongoing solar impacts to assess....but I think there is something to the idea that less arctic ice will encourage more autumnal blocking, and this in turn will stress the vortex more readily via wave breaking. What we also know without any doubt, however, is that regardless of global warming a continental feed will continue to provide enough cold for snow for a long long time to come (look at the snow that happened last week on the back of a really rather pathetic continental infeed of uppers over France that really weren't that cold...) and that for high ground polar NWs will continue to give snow. There is nothing to me in the GW argument to suggest that snow will disappear from our weather.

Whether global warming is going to provide a boost to the sub tropical high pressure belts as the models forecast is another issue entirely. If the sub tropical highs shift north then the storm track will move north also, and that means a more difficult time to get onto the cold side of the jet. We will need to see if this happens - don't suppose we will really have an answer in our own lifetimes to this....but there was a debate on twitter somewhere a few weeks ago about this, and whether increased cold outflow from more vortex disruption would overcome sub tropical belt movement or not. We simply don't know.

The influence of the QBO is fairly well known in terms of an eQBO opening up an easier window for a meriodional storm track, but what I am a lot less certain of is the impacts of eQBO and wQBO on the progress of any downwelling vortex event. I'm sure the info is out there - I just haven't read it yet....but on a sample size of 1 (2019) I'm left assuming that a wQBO resists successful downwelling through some kind of linked process whereas eQBO assists it (2018). It also depends a bit of the type of vortex event that is going on - a displacement event is less beneficial anyway, and I've read contradictory interpretations of exactly what sort of event we have had this year. Will all come out in the wash.

There is a final area of investigation that seems underdone in my opinion, and that is the impact of the tropical atlantic. We spend all our time understandably focusing on the key areas of convection in the pacific, and the ENSO state as a broad context for global weather, but I'm left wondering if there are impacts in the tropical atlantic that are not analysed enough. Clearly the tropical atlantic does not provide the same degree of convection energy - but there are still hurricanes that spawn and an ocean temperature gradient that must have an impact. In the close season I'm going to see what papers might be out there.

It's all a learning curve. Writing may nearly be on the wall for this winter if we don't get a block in place soon after mid month....and then while some of you lot start dreaming of summer (which I hate) I'll hunker down for a bit, and wait for September to come around when the nuggets of the next winter season may begin to be seen. 2 or 3 years ago I marked 2019/20 down as the year that might properly deliver the goods based purely on likely QBO phase and properly low solar impacts.....so we will see!

 

  I think you’re right that we may know more in 10 years I don’t put much faith in solar impact either personally I think the writing is on the wall for this winter I think it’s just a week or two before the writings become clear and put us out of our misery for this season from this crappy winter.  excellent post by the way and that is very interesting what you say regarding the tropical Atlantic also if I am right I think next winter is the west QBO isn’t it? 😞😞

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As this thread states this winter has been a hunt for cold ,but maybe more a battle with the azores block which we have had for most of this winter which refuses to budge,and although we saw snow for some last week this constant set up will give us mainly milder atlantic weather with at best cold zonal short spells ,if that block becomes a Bartlet block it could mean an early spring,what we all want is that block to migrate north to block the Atlantic but all we are seeing is weak ridges which won't stop the Atlantic for long and another cold zonal weekend coming,let's hope by the weekend the short 5 day chart runs show some more positive signs of stronger blocking and in the right place

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Dreadful icon run with the high slipping south and low pressure over the top, means mild and a million miles away from what the ec46 ANOMALIES were showing for this time, of anyone still thinks it has performed well, then they must be. employees of the European Centre 🤣

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7 hours ago, snowfish1 said:

Totally. Agree.. There's nothing wrong with that except a poor summer doesn't make a poor winter any better. two wrongs don't make a right,! 

Nope but two minus’s make a plus 🤔😎

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31 minutes ago, TomSE12 said:

The 00z UKMO teases us again, next Monday, 11th Feb.:

image.thumb.png.17a1017bb1d8e262003d5662cd612e0d.png

image.thumb.png.e5f849e9bc8acdb56e68fd12a3ac4209.png

Regards,

Tom. 

 

Is this a tease on the GFS 00z too - a day earlier? I think so, just a little tentative with my reading of models still.

gfseu-13-132.png

gfseu-1-132.png

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