Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, Mike Poole said:

    As per my earlier post, you could read anything into that.  Not buying!

    I think we can safely say its an atlantic trough, the question marks are is it coming up against a stable Scandi block giving battlegrounds or is the trough poorly orientated and domineering of the pattern dragging up tropical air, and how mobile is the pattern?

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 12.2k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

    Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

    Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, Rocheydub said:

    Huge differences out to 102 with the Vortex over Newfoundland. HUGE. Much higher pressure.

    ???

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    2 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

    This thread can be summed up in one sentence,,,,,,,,'Roll on a very cold snowy spring'

    Edited your post for you ?

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 minute ago, Don said:

    It’s not a cold signal with winds from a southerly quarter?

    No, not really, it's a mean chart for a whole week 3 weeks in the future, and who knows what it is made up of!  Because we can't see the individual runs.  ignore it!

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
    3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    ???

    OK, let me explain It's now to 120 and 126 from the 12z

     

    Screenshot 2019-02-04 at 22.16.28.png

    Screenshot 2019-02-04 at 22.16.46.png

    As I said, huge differences in pressure over Newfoundland.

    Edited by Rocheydub
    • Like 3
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks

    For what it is worth my first long look at the anomaly charts for a couple of weeks and it seems the Atlantic will be the main player through the 6-14 day period. Just a small signal of some ridging towards Greenland from an area, unusual one, NW UK and Norway.

    Anyway my notes and links below

    Mon 4 feb

    Ec-gfs and ec now has main trough down e’ern seaboard usa and ridging is from azores towards n’ern Europe; gfs is more trough orientated including uk with ridging s of this over Europe from w-e, marked troughing similar place to ec but general w’ly flow from off us e coast into uk and Europe (s of w). ec has higher contour heights uk than gfs (often seems this way)

    Noaa mon evening 6-10 shows  still some ridging towards Greenland from nw uk/Norway region but no signal for actual height rises, last evening this was a feature; its major trough fits the ec version.

    Effectively there is a general idea of some kind of atlantic flow, quite strong out of n America beneath the major trough e of states.

    So an unsettled/changeable spell with a mix of Tm/Pm airmasses, no major cold showing

    http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/500mb.php

    http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWF_0z/hgtcomp.html

     

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    And more likely so see Ice cream than ice based on the GFS.

    image.thumb.png.365b8b9684b50822176fc3d95c0edca5.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

    OK, let me explain It's now to 120 and 126 from the 12z

     

     

    As I said, huge differences in pressure over Newfoundland.

    Looks like one has just progressed a tiny bit quicker, the only big changes look over the pacific sector, somewhere near Alaska.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
    3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    And more likely so see Ice cream than ice based on the GFS.

    image.thumb.png.365b8b9684b50822176fc3d95c0edca5.png

    Are you saying that's a warm/mild chart? That's what your ice cream remark suggests.

    I stated there was huge differences. There are, and at such a short time frame too. Thanks.

    • Like 1
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    5 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    I actually think that without an ssw we would have had a more wintry jan/feb ........

    Yes your probably right in November and December we had some nice blocks set up but it didn’t deliver cold with it being to early on in winter . The ssw seems to of put even more energy to are NW just shutting the door on any long lasting blocking . We might get lucky towards the end of feb/early March but it obviously has to be that bit more potent. 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    5 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

    Are you saying that's a warm/mild chart? That's what your ice cream remark suggests.

    I stated there was huge differences. There are, and at such a short time frame too. Thanks.

    There is one of those Ice cream cones with a bubble gum on top, as for the chart, i cant see any of those 2 runs showing any proper cold before 240 at a push, much of a muchness to me.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and very cold.
  • Location: porth (Welsh valleys)
    17 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    Edited your post for you ?

    Very kind that's what I meant to say.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    9 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    I actually think that without an ssw we would have had a more wintry jan/feb ........

    Which really wouldn't be difficult blue!!

    Horrendous outputs, i really hope people are not putting any hope in ukmo either..

     

     

    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    There is one of those Ice cream cones with a bubble gum on top, as for the chart, i cant see any of those 2 runs showing any proper cold before 240 at a push, much of a muchness to me.

    I really have no idea what your point is. None at all.

    144 on the 18z is baltic and wouldn't take much adjustment to make it very snowy. If you were outdoors eating ice cream in that, you'd be considered insane. Actually, maybe I've just diagnosed something!

    Screenshot 2019-02-04 at 22.35.20.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

    Which really wouldn't be difficult blue!!

    Horrendous outputs, i really hope people are not putting any hope in ukmo either..

     

     

    1000000% no confidence in UKMO T144 . In any other year you would have had confidence in it but not this winter ?

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: London
  • Location: London

    I can’t recall a winter where almost every single major long range model has called this winter so badly. Their validity is at best mediocre. Far too much faith has been placed into this by many.

    Granted the SSW has raised many of our expectations markedly, sadly the results we were hoping for haven’t materialised.

    Not the winter many of us hoped for when the long range models were predicting such positive signals for coldies back in November.

    Time to look to spring now, let’s hope for some early warmth in the models in the next few weeks. Can we nudge a 14/15 deg by the end of the month...hopefully.

    A

     

     

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

    I think come back in about a week and things will look a lot different whether that’s good or not remains to be seen, there’s no getting away from these poo looking charts at the min though unfortunately. It would be nice to get a proper cold spell before the end of winter though before we really start looking forward to warmth

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    2 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

    I really have no idea what your point is. None at all.

    144 on the 18z is baltic and wouldn't take much adjustment to make it very snowy. If you were outdoors eating ice cream in that, you'd be considered insane. Actually, maybe I've just diagnosed something!

    Screenshot 2019-02-04 at 22.35.20.png

    Baltic you say ?? It’s rubbish 

    92486E0D-54DB-47EA-A533-117130309D85.png

    9D90D01E-E486-4363-98F5-73763AFBE2E1.png

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
    6 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    Zzzzzzzzzzz, that’s about it.

    54E94102-2EF5-44B6-8F5F-9764016BD48E.png

    I would say, get to there, settled, await the next attack.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
    1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

    Baltic you say ?? It’s rubbish 

    92486E0D-54DB-47EA-A533-117130309D85.png

    9D90D01E-E486-4363-98F5-73763AFBE2E1.png

    You're trusting the uppers at this range?? Fair play to you!
    The synoptical set up is baltic. Could quite easily be a long fetch northerly!

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...