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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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DUMPING ALERT!

 

N flank of that developing wave - but marginal.

image.thumb.png.90a38a359bd61155862ecce919937be8.png

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Looking at the early stages of tonight's Gfs 18z operational..anyone fancy some snow?..Tuesday looks an interesting day..not exactly day after tomorrow stuff but actually it is the day after tomorrow!:whistling:👍😉❄️

18_36_preciptype.png

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image.thumb.png.8f3d9d6e4387f05ed62bafc8ed4d88a2.png

@Frosty. Yes please

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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150 and it's looking decent.  A fairly potent northerly bringing -8 uppers across Scotland.

image.thumb.png.7bb067bbe54ded845b5e8ffd6aafa0a9.png  image.thumb.png.9214a1dfb1e7f4e7be09add0d6f688b9.png

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the early stages of tonight's Gfs 18z operational..anyone fancy some snow?..Tuesday looks an interesting day..not exactly day after tomorrow stuff but actually it is the day after tomorrow!👍😉❄️

18_36_preciptype.png

If only.

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1 hour ago, Stuie W said:

effects of the SSW still not fully resolved.

Or understood.  This is new science.  Our understanding of this phenomenon is at the very beginning.

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4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

150 and it's looking decent.  A fairly potent northerly bringing -8 uppers across Scotland.

image.thumb.png.7bb067bbe54ded845b5e8ffd6aafa0a9.png  image.thumb.png.9214a1dfb1e7f4e7be09add0d6f688b9.png

Yep,not bad

a few frames later the south coast.

gfsnh-1-168.thumb.png.25522d2b1a1dd5c2242cf2a373527210.png

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image.png.507ac49d4747f1a4472cf600d6442536.png

Uppers are colder in UK than Central Europe on that map but i suppose it will still have surface cold.Will be interesting how this week pans out.GFS out on its own i feel with regards to snow in the South.Think it is far too optimistic personally for Midlands Southwards although NW Britain could get its first significant snowfall of this winter-Would be great if somewhere sees the landscape turn white!!

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Yes that’s better a lot better 850s no marginal there . 👍

86062864-5538-4974-8E02-975574148CAD.png

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54 minutes ago, Coastal Eddy said:

That's directly over the WHITE-house

No wonder there's a government shutdown !

 

So there's 2 d*ckheads there at that point...

Edited by JeffC

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1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yep,not bad

a few frames later the south coast.

gfsnh-1-168.thumb.png.25522d2b1a1dd5c2242cf2a373527210.png

It is, with the next northerly attack primed at 192.  Not that the detail will be correct, but it seems this is how the upcoming cold spell (*IF* there's going to be one) is going to evolve, with ever more potent northerlies establishing themselves before hopefully a northeasterly/easterly?

image.thumb.png.32cfc51b1af5c2517db28f18d3ec2cf5.png  image.thumb.png.fb07ac63085c0955749ae2c28f7c203a.png

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11 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Looking at the early stages of tonight's Gfs 18z operational..anyone fancy some snow?..Tuesday looks an interesting day..not exactly day after tomorrow stuff but actually it is the day after tomorrow!👍😉❄️

18_36_preciptype.png

Hmm, I think the EC and Netwx SR Precipitation type charts below are more realistic re snow!B5C04D7B-3E88-46D6-A3D9-4D8176F1B17D.thumb.png.fe7c5901ba6540ea990d2f150c5f05e3.png76C24446-FBD9-4BA6-876C-ACCDF0754693.thumb.png.536f98f2d775b5b62270aae7a70ff55e.png

 

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58 minutes ago, Catacol said:

If we haven't got some kind of easterly flow via trough/block by the end of week 1 of Feb then I can assure you that many people will be scratching their heads and wondering what on earth has gone on with this winter. 

My point exactly 😉

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1 minute ago, Nick F said:

Hmm, I think the EC and Netwx SR Precipitation type charts below are more realistic re snow!B5C04D7B-3E88-46D6-A3D9-4D8176F1B17D.thumb.png.fe7c5901ba6540ea990d2f150c5f05e3.png76C24446-FBD9-4BA6-876C-ACCDF0754693.thumb.png.536f98f2d775b5b62270aae7a70ff55e.png

 

How does Wednesday look se corner? 

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Just now, ICE COLD said:

-10 850s widely. 

5CC30C2A-1DEB-4701-AF5D-67351BD4C7A6.png

Yes, lovely uppers already in place for the next northwesterly with snow piling in.

gfs-2-204.thumb.png.336c86d2742d8b7521b6a051eb1fd072.png

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2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Hmm, I think the EC and Netwx SR Precipitation type charts below are more realistic re snow!B5C04D7B-3E88-46D6-A3D9-4D8176F1B17D.thumb.png.fe7c5901ba6540ea990d2f150c5f05e3.png76C24446-FBD9-4BA6-876C-ACCDF0754693.thumb.png.536f98f2d775b5b62270aae7a70ff55e.png

 

Works for me, I'm in the pink!

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3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

-10 850s widely. 

5CC30C2A-1DEB-4701-AF5D-67351BD4C7A6.png

That looks cold...

index.jpg.ff6fc775dee078d865f3533ca1b7db35.jpg😛

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At 210 it's looking like heights are ready to head to Greenland, then we should get some FI eye candy.....

image.thumb.png.191901edd155f4dd3ec4782fb00f3b24.png

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7 minutes ago, Hotspur61 said:

image.png.507ac49d4747f1a4472cf600d6442536.png

Uppers are colder in UK than Central Europe on that map but i suppose it will still have surface cold.Will be interesting how this week pans out.GFS out on its own i feel with regards to snow in the South.Think it is far too optimistic personally for Midlands Southwards although NW Britain could get its first significant snowfall of this winter-Would be great if somewhere sees the landscape turn white!!

Let's hope the 0z's agree lol.

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3 minutes ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

My point exactly 😉

Yes but we aren’t at the end of the first week of Feb yet.

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1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

At 210 it's looking like heights are ready to head to Greenland, then we should get some FI eye candy.....

image.thumb.png.191901edd155f4dd3ec4782fb00f3b24.png

Way into FI, but as that chart looks? No heights rising, too many shortwaves at the southern tip of Greenland.

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6 minutes ago, JeffC said:

Works for me, I'm in the pink!

Say what? Just a reminder this is a weather forum! 

Edited by Astral Goat Juice

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3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

How does Wednesday look se corner? 

Snow grazing east Kent coast on EC on Wednesday, but never gets any further west. But Tuesday the model shows sleet/snow showers penetrating quite a way inland across England on the NW wind, as far as Hants and E/W Sussex.

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