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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Maybe UKMO extended is the trend setter 😂

ukm2.2019021112_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.ead4f743bbd3d35d79548429034bd3c9.png

Something tells me you don’t think it is 😂

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Just now, frosty ground said:

Something tells me you don’t think it is 😂

No chance!

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Just now, frosty ground said:

Something tells me you don’t think it is 😂

If it is right then ECM and GFS are spectacularly wrong

ecm2.2019021112_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.84ca2b77bae31566e00682d3d9c77b8d.pnggfs2.2019021112_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.2c68eab6b54c7c6fcffb987d393aa1b3.png

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14 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Maybe UKMO extended is the trend setter 😂

ukm2.2019021112_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.ead4f743bbd3d35d79548429034bd3c9.png

Yep UKMO still got it’s bone at 168! (Cold bone) 

edit;

this is a reference to my earlier post lol, nothing sordid hahaha

Edited by chris55

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15 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Just wanted to pick up on the discussion earlier about whether the ECM46 has been  pants or not.  With a product that forecasts weeks away, there is a massive difference between those who can actually see all the output, and those - like most of us here - who just see mean weekly charts across all ensemble members that some people kindly post up.  

From professional experience with probabilistic modelling in another, non weather related area, if something 'interesting' shows up on a mean chart, I would want to look at the individual members to understand it.  And I can't do that with the ECM46.  

For me, the mean charts in early Jan showed a probably unquantifiable likelihood of a Greenland high, but it has certainly not materialised, hence the view that it is a bust. Am aware though that could just be me misreading what limited information was available to me.

I won't be paying much attention to this model in future, not because I think it is a dud model, but because I know that I cannot see enough information from it to form a reliable view of what it is telling me.  

That has pretty much hit the nail on the head Mike . They are weekly means but come on they where showing HL blocking week after week and the met Office pretty much write there monthly forecasts of the EC46 . So that has to mean the EC46 was showing HL blocking with cold coming from the north or east because that’s what there forecasts have been saying week after week ala EC46  . So if that is the case then there is no getting away from it that the EC46 got it wrong this winter . The EC46 has now dropped the blocking and now the met Office drop it from there further outlook. 

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well so much for this winter being two sided with the first half being mild and the second half being cold and snowy.  And don't even get me started with the SSW.  This winter has been dreadful with the 2 snowfall events being marginal and short lived and hardly worth blinking at.  I usually love the winter, especially when we have a few decent snow events but even i am ready to give winter 2018/19 up as a joke now.  Roll on the summer.  At least we can be guaranteed a good number of sunny hot days then.  Pity the same cannot be said for a typical winter in the UK.  When you can count under 5 days of snow in any one winter (and thats if we're lucky) then its not even worth waiting for.

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28 minutes ago, MP-R said:

All eyes on a building UK high then! Could actually bring some very springlike weather being February. I know I'll probably be escorted to the gallows for admitting this in this thread but I'd take a Feb 1998 style 18C with sunshine as much as cold and snow - just hate the idea of a resumption of Nov/Dec wet blandness.

 Careful what you wish for mpr, we start getting that type of weather in febuary and we will end up with a summer that resembles autumn 👌

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1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

 Careful what you wish for mpr, we start getting that type of weather in febuary and we will end up with a summer that resembles autumn 👌

That’s what I’m hoping for a nice cool damp summer. Us coldies didn’t get are cold snowy winter so why should the summer lovers get there hot summer . It just wouldn’t be fair 🤣 and plus I can’t stand hot weather 😜

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4 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

That’s what I’m hoping for a nice cool damp summer. Us coldies didn’t get are cold snowy winter so why should the summer lovers get there hot summer . It just wouldn’t be fair 🤣 and plus I can’t stand hot weather 😜

Totally. Agree.. There's nothing wrong with that except a poor summer doesn't make a poor winter any better. two wrongs don't make a right,! 

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10 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

 Careful what you wish for mpr, we start getting that type of weather in febuary and we will end up with a summer that resembles autumn 👌

Ha, very possible, but I don’t think there’s a strong enough link. To be honest I’d rather February was just February-like instead of a pseudo-autumn.

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41 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Just wanted to pick up on the discussion earlier about whether the ECM46 has been  pants or not.  With a product that forecasts weeks away, there is a massive difference between those who can actually see all the output, and those - like most of us here - who just see mean weekly charts across all ensemble members that some people kindly post up.  

From professional experience with probabilistic modelling in another, non weather related area, if something 'interesting' shows up on a mean chart, I would want to look at the individual members to understand it.  And I can't do that with the ECM46.  

For me, the mean charts in early Jan showed a probably unquantifiable likelihood of a Greenland high, but it has certainly not materialised, hence the view that it is a bust. Am aware though that could just be me misreading what limited information was available to me.

I won't be paying much attention to this model in future, not because I think it is a dud model, but because I know that I cannot see enough information from it to form a reliable view of what it is telling me.  

Up until the 24 jan issue which picked up the W euro high anoms for early feb, the 46 had been solidly predicting sustained low euro anoms from third week jan and through feb.   The greeny high anoms had only shown beyond 20 jan and were rarely strong until feb arrived when they were pronged to instensify.  The low euro anoms looked after us with wedges further north to keep the jet headed into Europe. Clearly the feb greeny heights anoms have failed on the jan output up until the 24th. Thereafter we aren’t seeing strong greeny high anoms predicted but we certainly haven’t seen some of the charts we are currently seeing for mid feb! 

Some posting of slp anoms on here from the Icelandic site .... not a big fan of slp anoms at range beyond 2/3 weeks  ......

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FV3 at T336:

image.thumb.jpg.2ae51455c3086e99c1f3f4014c586dcd.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.c18488a87195fe71d5301bbbd2bb1639.jpg

Teeing up a norther    ....   What's the point, model fatigue has now set in proper!  Would put in an emoji at this point, but they've all vanished as well!  Can't even see an animal in the Meteociel charts.  Hopeless.  

Guess I'll see you folks back for one last hurrah second half of Feb, hope so, then it's it's onto summer prospects and storms.

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25 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

That has pretty much hit the nail on the head Mike . They are weekly means but come on they where showing HL blocking week after week and the met Office pretty much write there monthly forecasts of the EC46 . So that has to mean the EC46 was showing HL blocking with cold coming from the north or east because that’s what there forecasts have been saying week after week ala EC46  . So if that is the case then there is no getting away from it that the EC46 got it wrong this winter . The EC46 has now dropped the blocking and now the met Office drop it from there further outlook. 

Exeter use glosea and ec46. I think their change of tone over last few days is more to do with glosea changes than ec46. Plus they have also used MJO analogues in the past. Perhaps they have decided that on balance, things just aren’t stacking up as they expected and that it’s prudent to be more balanced. 

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Up until the 24 jan issue which picked up the W euro high anoms for early feb, the 46 had been solidly predicting sustained low euro anoms from third week jan and through feb.   The greeny high anoms had only shown beyond 20 jan and were rarely strong until feb arrived when they were pronged to instensify.  The low euro anoms looked after us with wedges further north to keep the jet headed into Europe. Clearly the feb greeny heights anoms have failed on the jan output up until the 24th. Thereafter we aren’t seeing strong greeny high anoms predicted but we certainly haven’t seen some of the charts we are currently seeing for mid feb! 

Some posting of slp anoms on here from the Icelandic site .... not a big fan of slp anoms at range beyond 2/3 weeks  ......

I understand what your saying nick but the met have had the wintry outlook /easterlys in there 3/4 week outlook since December and don’t they base that on the EC46 ? So if that’s the case surely that’s what the EC46 was showing ? But obviously it’s not happened. 

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I understand what your saying nick but the met have had the wintry outlook /easterlys in there 3/4 week outlook since December and don’t they base that on the EC46 ? So if that’s the case surely that’s what the EC46 was showing ? But obviously it’s not happened. 

The ec 46 is used in conjunction with glosea (and other telecons such as MJO). We have the ec46 in detail going back six weeks to look at. It never really  showed a mean strong greeny high anom before feb. It showed euro low anoms of varying depth which could have prompted the easterly story. But I think the catalyst for that was the SSW and their expectations of a quick response early jan. note that there was a period after that failed when the easterly story also went (though it stayed cold/ v cold in the return of the easterly was I’m sure down to glosea showing strong downwelling waves later in jan and through feb. The 46 was surely used to support glosea but I’m pretty confident that glosea has been the main support. . 

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The ec 46 is used in conjunction with glosea (and other telecons such as MJO). We have the ec46 in detail going back six weeks to look at. It never really  showed a mean strong greeny high anom before feb. It showed euro low anoms of varying depth which could have prompted the easterly story. But I think the catalyst for that was the SSW and their expectations of a quick response early jan. note that there was a period after that failed when the easterly story also went (though it stayed cold/ v cold in the return of the easterly was I’m sure down to glosea showing strong downwelling waves later in jan and through feb. The 46 was surely used to support glosea but I’m pretty confident that glosea has been the main support. . 

Thanks for the reply . Bloody glosea I thought it was the mutts nuts of a model lol . Do you think we are ever gonna get a decent cold spell without having to have a SSW being the catalyst ? Just seems we’re always hanging are hat on a SSW every winter . 

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3 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Thanks for the reply . Bloody glosea I thought it was the mutts nuts of a model lol . Do you think we are ever gonna get a decent cold spell without having to have a SSW being the catalyst ? Just seems we’re always hanging are hat on a SSW every winter . 

I do wonder sometimes if we’d have been closer to one without the SSW, and that it actually helped scupper one.

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Thanks for the reply . Bloody glosea I thought it was the mutts nuts of a model lol . Do you think we are ever gonna get a decent cold spell without having to have a SSW being the catalyst ? Just seems we’re always hanging are hat on a SSW every winter . 

I think there is something in this, actually.  I sense two things neither with any statistical evidence to back them up, and they are these:

  • I think that proper wintry outbreaks for the UK will become increasingly reliant on SSWs - how many major snow events in Southern England have occurred since Dec 2010 that hasn't had a SSW component?  1.  Dec 10 2017.
  • SSWs are likely to increase in likelihood given changes in Arctic sea ice and other indicators at or before the start of winter, as per Cohen's theory.  

Could be talking out of my backside, it's happened before, but I don't think the changes that are undoubtably happening to our planet all point in the direction of warmer winters for the UK, could be quite the opposite, we just don't know yet.

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6 minutes ago, MP-R said:

I do wonder sometimes if we’d have been closer to one without the SSW, and that it actually helped scupper one.

I,ve wondered this myself to be honest. I feel it may have worked against us by inhibiting chances of the mjo analogues from developing fully and also perhaps inhibiting the amplitude somewhat. I also feel that the descending westerly QBO may have also played more of a part than we wanted it to. I happy to be proved incorrect by the more knowledge able. Just my musings really.

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

image.thumb.png.980c2f348428bb689757922f988836b5.png

Oh dear...

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

image.thumb.png.980c2f348428bb689757922f988836b5.png

As per my earlier post, you could read anything into that.  Not buying!

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Just now, Mike Poole said:

As per my earlier post, you could read anything into that.  Not buying!

It’s not a cold signal with winds from a southerly quarter?

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2 hours ago, January Snowstorm said:

It's not long ago the general view was that not only was the pv being shot to pieces but also that it may not recover at all for the rest of Winter. You wouldn't want to be giving general public forecasts on that thought process lol.

We learn something every Winter and we've learnt a lot this year too. One thing I've learnt in my 45 years of watching weather is that the period around Christmas is a good guide on rest of Winter. No science in this just school of life!!

Yes, and we all know what happened Christmas just gone, those painful heights to the southwest which came into play from around Dec 24th and just sat there for nigh on 3 weeks. And now a Euro high looks like setting up shop and eating into more valuable winter time for us from next weekend. :wallbash:

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