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Posted
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl
    1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Kent is on the South coast or part of it, they got belted in Feb/March last year.

     a bit of a sweeping statement,not all of us "got belted"

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    For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

    Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

    Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    43 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    EC doesnt look like its going to bring much cheer at 144...

    Big +NAO at 168..

    Its only the weather but goodness me we have been dealt a horrible hand for winter 2018/9..

     

    Is that the ‘royal’ we ;) 

    4BD95112-E9E1-41D5-9152-B5F07CDE028C.thumb.jpeg.6acbf752d17eac43b6edbfd865255dbf.jpeg

     But in all seriousness it can be really frustrating if the snow doesn’t fall locally. For some/many a few... the last week has been exceptional.

    Moving forward and it seems UKMO is like a dog with a bone, by far the best run two days in a row for some colder/blocked conditions. Can the mighty UKMO operational usurp the rest.... who knows but tonight’s run certainly looks interesting. Screaming out for a Greeny high there! 

    7127FE77-060E-4D5E-80A4-681D99734E9B.thumb.png.5debf4705f96545ce302b1676c6ab8a8.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    Something went wrong with the background signals!:crazy:

    216_thickuk.png

    240_mslp850.png

    240_thickuk.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)
  • Location: Cork City(Southern Ireland)

    It's not long ago the general view was that not only was the pv being shot to pieces but also that it may not recover at all for the rest of Winter. You wouldn't want to be giving general public forecasts on that thought process lol.

    We learn something every Winter and we've learnt a lot this year too. One thing I've learnt in my 45 years of watching weather is that the period around Christmas is a good guide on rest of Winter. No science in this just school of life!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    5 minutes ago, Purga said:

    ECM 12z

    image.thumb.png.625df13bc10ac3ed98a84eea30f1cb9b.pngimage.thumb.png.f5f87db01ee937339943790ba293b5db.png

    image.thumb.png.0d52e1e8ec253a6fee55e234bab46443.png

    ??

    The Ecm 12z tonight..is Purga..tory:whistling:

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
    4 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    The Ecm 12z tonight..is Purga..tory:whistling:

    Too right Frosty - it's so bad it's almost comical!

    ??

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    5 inches in Birmingham - it was on a Thursday night definitely.

    Yes it was.  No snow IMBY, but places about 10 miles away had about 2 inches and I think parts of central southern England had up to 6 inches!

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    Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
    24 minutes ago, chris55 said:

    This link was posted by Jtay in the regionals earlier today. Not necessarily model related but a really good write up on how the events of Thursday/Friday unfolded with the model output really struggling to pin down the forecast even at 12/24 hours!

    Worth a read, even for those who didn’t get any snow, as the perimeters are equal in any potential snow event (though rare it’s good to know what is possible).

    Some great pics as well, illustrative and factual.

    https://stratusdeck.co.uk/blog/conditional-symmetric-instability-the-struggles-of-forecasting-snow

    won't let me post ob the actual item but a good read; slantwise instability, yes another issue to cover for any forecaster

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    24 minutes ago, Purga said:

    ECM 12z

    image.thumb.png.625df13bc10ac3ed98a84eea30f1cb9b.pngimage.thumb.png.f5f87db01ee937339943790ba293b5db.png

    image.thumb.png.0d52e1e8ec253a6fee55e234bab46443.png

    ??

    Just about as bad as it gets for coldies and more than a shade of the same date in February 1998!  What did we do to annoy the weather gods this winter?!

    Edited by Don
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    Posted
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey , Hale Gtr Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey , Hale Gtr Manchester
    2 minutes ago, Don said:

    Just about as bad as it gets for coldies and more than a shade of the same date in February 1998!  What did we do to annoy the weather gods this winter?!

    Romantic walk in the park with no jacket for Valentines then !!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    Just now, Badgers01 said:

    Romantic walk in the park with no jacket for Valentines then !!

    Not for me.....

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
    4 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    won't let me post ob the actual item but a good read; slantwise instability, yes another issue to cover for any forecaster

    Yes John a good read.

    I remember some references to a ‘shearing’ front in here in the lead up, which intimated a weaker front, however it seems that shearing actually helped to cause that ‘slantwise’ instability, fascinating stuff!

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    36 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

    Something went wrong with the background signals!:crazy:

    216_thickuk.png

    240_mslp850.png

    240_thickuk.png

    Ian Brown had them all shot!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    Looks like the roller coaster ride last night turned out to be out of order until further notice!

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    9 hours ago, Ed Stone said:

    I'm thinking that some folks read 'mean anomalies' as if they were actual 'mean synoptics', and not merely  mean deviations, from the norm? ?

    Unless of course, I am completely crackers!?

    Just wanted to pick up on the discussion earlier about whether the ECM46 has been  pants or not.  With a product that forecasts weeks away, there is a massive difference between those who can actually see all the output, and those - like most of us here - who just see mean weekly charts across all ensemble members that some people kindly post up.  

    From professional experience with probabilistic modelling in another, non weather related area, if something 'interesting' shows up on a mean chart, I would want to look at the individual members to understand it.  And I can't do that with the ECM46.  

    For me, the mean charts in early Jan showed a probably unquantifiable likelihood of a Greenland high, but it has certainly not materialised, hence the view that it is a bust. Am aware though that could just be me misreading what limited information was available to me.

    I won't be paying much attention to this model in future, not because I think it is a dud model, but because I know that I cannot see enough information from it to form a reliable view of what it is telling me.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    If you thought the Ecm 12z operational was purgatory for coldies..check out the mean!!..luckily I have my autistic sense of humour to get me through these difficult times!?:crazy:

    EDM0-216.gif

    EDM1-216.gif

    EDM0-240.gif

    EDM1-240.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    Looking at the ECM op and ensemble mean... I guess we're still going to see a variety of clusters between blocked to the NE and a collapsing block into Europe. There is a large spread showing just to our NW, indicating great variation on where ridging / troughing will influence in that area. 

    Having a block to the east makes it really tricky to forecast our weather. Just a few hundred miles west and we are in the continental flow with surface cold - but slightly east and we end up in a narrow funnel between the ridge and trough, sucking up a long drawn SWly. Little change in synoptics, big change in temperature. 

    However, snow looks well and truly off the cards between D6 and D10, and probably much longer than that. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    44 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

    One thing I've learnt in my 45 years of watching weather is that the period around Christmas is a good guide on rest of Winter. No science in this just school of life!!

    All eyes on a building UK high then! Could actually bring some very springlike weather being February. I know I'll probably be escorted to the gallows for admitting this in this thread but I'd take a Feb 1998 style 18C with sunshine as much as cold and snow - just hate the idea of a resumption of Nov/Dec wet blandness.

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now

    Any news on the GFSp 12z? I'm guessing its now following ECM/ GFS op, judging by the fact theres no comments ( that I noticed) on it. With those ECM charts I'd imagine the EC46 won't be too grand tonight either! Atleast for weeks 1 and 2

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    Posted
  • Location: Bath
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath
    2 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    I would question that.

    I wouldn't. Living in a city in the south. The only ice days were Thursday and Friday (The day the snow fell). Otherwise my weather station is broken.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    Just now, frosty ground said:

    Something tells me you don’t think it is ?

    No chance!

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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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