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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Would be ridiculous to have anything as good, but you don't need a setup that good, an overnight runner could do the trick - Think March 5th(ish) 1995.

I remember (I think it was the evening March 2nd 1995), quite a few places in the south got fair amount of snow.

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2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Lightning very rarely strikes twice in consecutive late winter/early spring periods...I'd be surprised to see anything cold and snowy again this late Feb/March period...

I agree 100% with that, I would bet my weeks salary on it.

Last year was exceptional and followed a cold February, this month is unlikely to be cold so my bet is on a mild March although not exceptionally so.

Andy

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Would be ridiculous to have anything as good, but you don't need a setup that good, an overnight runner could do the trick - Think March 5th(ish) 1995.

these days though, runners/sliders seem to track further South, mainly S of M4 events, where this was more of a Scotland event

archives-1995-3-5-12-0.png

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7 minutes ago, Leon1 said:

I do agree with you there. We got 2 ice days last March (ones with snow cover) but it was exceptional! It is so much easier to get ice days in the middle of winter. On Friday last week with snow on the ground we only got up to 2c with -7 uppers whereas the during the beast, lots of the days got maximums of 3 or 4 degrees with -15/-16 uppers.

On my books it didnt get above 0 anytime between tuesday and friday evening of that week in north east london. On the wednesday, where I was in central london had a maximum of -1.5 

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8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I would question that.

Agreed no chance in hell.

In the beast this year -16c brought this daytime maxima

58FDBA96-D3E9-42C1-B82F-40F7F3E6E5B5.thumb.jpeg.e3e2aa184d8a4de32749e75cb6e53c7e.jpeg

Edited by Steve Murr

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Agreed no chance in hell.

In the beast this year -16c brought this daytime maxima

58FDBA96-D3E9-42C1-B82F-40F7F3E6E5B5.thumb.jpeg.e3e2aa184d8a4de32749e75cb6e53c7e.jpeg

is that -6 Steve? - with relative humidity of 92% as well? - people say that IF that would have been in Jan with those uppers, we would have been struggling to see temps above -5c, well i have news, here we did see temps struggling to get much above that. add in 70mph gusts on the Thursday as well - it was perishing cold - even for me.

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EC doesnt look like its going to bring much cheer at 144...

Big +NAO at 168..

Its only the weather but goodness me we have been dealt a horrible hand for winter 2018/9..

 

Edited by northwestsnow

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Ecm is pants the lows coming in from Canada just blast any attempt of blocking out the way. A one day Northerly topper, how many times have we seen that the last 30 odd years. 

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC doesnt look like its going to bring much cheer at 144...

 

Not liking it at all, i am hoping the 12z eps can follow the 0z so we can then get an overview of what is likely to happen late February / early March by way of the EC46 later.

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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

is that -6 Steve? - with relative humidity of 92% as well? - people say that IF that would have been in Jan with those uppers, we would have been struggling to see temps above -5c, well i have news, here we did see temps struggling to get much above that. add in 70mph gusts on the Thursday as well - it was perishing cold - even for me.

Yes mate the main day then it slowley warmed up as the winds swung SE

UKMO the only real cold model tonight -Which is alligned to its 00z run, inteteresting to see where this goes ..

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21 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

Lightning very rarely strikes twice in consecutive late winter/early spring periods...I'd be surprised to see anything cold and snowy again this late Feb/March period...

And being as you love the heat froze, I would say the chances of a repeat of summer 18 was about equally as likely, 😜

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See yea October lads.👍

ECM1-168.gif

ECM1-192.gif

Edited by booferking

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I know theses are only forecast but!!🤮

55FADBB7-8219-42EE-A1BB-1D46C7D4B393.jpeg

2D8C410E-016E-40D7-AA75-5108934D1855.jpeg

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1 minute ago, fromey said:

I know theses are only forecast but!!🤮

55FADBB7-8219-42EE-A1BB-1D46C7D4B393.jpeg

2D8C410E-016E-40D7-AA75-5108934D1855.jpeg

NAO barely been neg all 'winter'..

Shocking.

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3 minutes ago, booferking said:

See yea October lads.👍

ECM1-168.gif

ECM1-192.gif

yes time for the spring thread to open i feel the daffs will be poping up shortly a month earlier than usual the pv looks stronger now than it did on december 

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The ECM is atrocious . The PV lobe gets reinforced from the Asian side and it’s game over by day 6.

After it’s better 00 hrs run this is a horror show and unless the UKMO is on the right track then the first half of February is looking like a write off for cold .

 

Edited by nick sussex

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9 minutes ago, booferking said:

See yea October lads.👍

ECM1-168.gif

ECM1-192.gif

Really, ya gonna throw in the towel on the 4th Feb! I'm pretty sure many were saying the same thing this time last year! 🤔

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6 minutes ago, fromey said:

I know theses are only forecast but!!🤮

55FADBB7-8219-42EE-A1BB-1D46C7D4B393.jpeg

2D8C410E-016E-40D7-AA75-5108934D1855.jpeg

Trending slightly negative around the end - though i prefer to just look at the actual runs (they are the GEFS members)

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Not too bothered by the ecm none of its latter output has verified all winter  remember the easterlies it was showing, and that disappeared a couple of runs later  its been junk after 5_6 days ahead 

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34 minutes ago, Don said:

I remember (I think it was the evening March 2nd 1995), quite a few places in the south got fair amount of snow.

5 inches in Birmingham - it was on a Thursday night definitely.

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7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Really, ya gonna throw in the towel on the 4th Feb! I'm pretty sure many were saying the same thing this time last year! 🤔

Last year definitely not great Winter up here in Ireland delivered big time well before the Easterly, as for this winter pure dirt.

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4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

NAO barely been neg all 'winter'..

Shocking.

The shredded pv has just not worked for us on this side of the pole with a large chunk held around Canada.It seems the best we got was the north westerlies feeding into a cold upper Euro trough over the last couple of weeks culminating in snowfall around the uk in recent days.

The current modeling over the Arctic makes it difficult to see anything blocky up there and the signs of the pv reforming are not positive for cold.

The best we can hope for is the suggestion of a building ridge over nw Europe around mid-month,showing in the ens.and this builds further north later on.The mjo is now showing in favourable phases 7/8 but there is usually a delay factor of these feeding through of around 10/14 days so let's not write Winter off yet.This hasn't exactly been a reliable factor so far but it is one possible positive in what are very poor outputs this evening.

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3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Last year definitely not great Winter up here in Ireland delivered big time well before the Easterly, as for this winter pure dirt.

I see where your coming from, but there's still time surely! I mean if we end up with bad background signals for next winter, a good many will be throwing the towel in before it's started. 😭

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11 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Looks like the PV's recovering then 😂

ECH1-240_apb5.GIF?65222

i looks like a real beast of a pv not what you would expect for mid febuary if you could take out the date from that image many people like myself would guess it looked like chart for early december we can ony hope this run has went cuckoo

Edited by igloo

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