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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    Just now, johnwirral said:

    Would a strengthened jet stream be connected with higher sea temps? 

    In winter, there is more of a temperature difference between the equator and poles so the jet stream is stronger and flows over the UK but the whole thing is complex so it could be the oceans.

    I think it would be better to ask somebody more knowledgeable in the climate thread??

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    For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

    Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

    Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    12 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    GFS is no mans land, can’t help but think the UKMO is just over amplifying the pattern again as it’s done quite often at day 6 this year

    D6D532F5-94E9-4966-9783-C6F88537CB9B.png

    I feel the gfs may be putting to much strength in the low as usual, perhaps a half way house, continuation of recent pattern. But that would be a shame, as things are looking good for a proper block. 

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    Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
    5 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

    In winter, there is more of a temperature difference between the equator and poles so the jet stream is stronger and flows over the UK but the whole thing is complex so it could be the oceans.

    I think it would be better to ask somebody more knowledgeable in the climate thread??

    I remember all the scare stories that the jet would weaken and plunge the UK into the freezer

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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

    I remember all the scare stories that the jet would weaken and plunge the UK into the freezer

    No comment?

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    6 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

    I remember all the scare stories that the jet would weaken and plunge the UK into the freezer

    We've been given a few years' grace, anywho: the GSM has been postponed until Terran technology is able to accurately measure its effects until (latest guess) 2030...?

    Until then, we'll have a plethora of charts like this one to 'enjoy'!

    image.thumb.png.f1d5600ba76409d17d0e59f093e6ab26.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    Crucial 12z ECM coming up.....

    More of a crucial ECM extended ensembles IMO.

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    More of a crucial ECM extended ensembles IMO.

    Surely the so called positive  (for  cold) phases of the MJO and GLAAM must start to seriously buckle and slow the jet soon.

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    Posted
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to Early October
  • Location: Live in central Gravesend work in NW Kent too now
    3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    More of a crucial ECM extended ensembles IMO.

    And those highly verifying EC46 anomalies later ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    7 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    Crucial 12z ECM coming up.....

    Winter proper is fast running out for those of us in the south so every run is crucial now! And before anyone says I know we can have snowy spells in March but trust me as someone who lives on the south coast once you pass late February the sun is exceptionally strong, even with brutal cold the sun still melts everything! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    9 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    Winter proper is fast running out for those of us in the south so every run is crucial now! And before anyone says I know we can have snowy spells in March but trust me as someone who lives on the south coast once you pass late February the sun is exceptionally strong, even with brutal cold the sun still melts everything! 

    Kent is on the South coast or part of it, they got belted in Feb/March last year.

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    Posted
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent
  • Location: Tonbridge,Kent
    55 minutes ago, D.V.R said:

    In winter, there is more of a temperature difference between the equator and poles so the jet stream is stronger and flows over the UK but the whole thing is complex so it could be the oceans.

    I think it would be better to ask somebody more knowledgeable in the climate thread??

    Thats the atlanteans... Long gone to ask advice.. Or are they?? ?.... Perhaps they got the pox with  the drizzle .. ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
  • Weather Preferences: Historical weather events. ❤ the seasons! Winters crisp snow!
  • Location: Co.Laois > Ireland
    14 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Kent is on the South coast or part of it, they got belted in Feb/March last year.

    I was one of them @feb looks interesting from my opinion. Great wedge blocking potential. Hoping ecm might follow suit☺

    metslp_120.thumb.png.6bbf96f564ffed70f8dda2cc5fd7533b.png

    I believe it will and may also be the bfte in abbreviated disguise. ☺

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, icykev said:

    I was one of them @feb looks interesting from my opinion. Great wedge blocking potential. Hoping ecm might follow suit☺

    metslp_120.thumb.png.6bbf96f564ffed70f8dda2cc5fd7533b.png

    I believe it will and may also be the bfte in abbreviated disguise. ☺

     

    There were a few Northerlies on the GEFS, if a little transient with Griceland wedges and not proper Greenland blocking, mayge @alexisj9 is on to something after all.

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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    23 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Kent is on the South coast or part of it, they got belted in Feb/March last year.

    Didn’t say it was impossible to get snow but in my experience long lasting lying snow just doesn’t happen in March, we had sub -10 uppers in March and the sun melted the snow as soon as it came out. I think true ice days and cold spells aren’t possible for the south in March, aside from exceptional circumstances.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, Weathizard said:

    Didn’t say it was impossible to get snow but in my experience long lasting lying snow just doesn’t happen in March, we had sub -10 uppers in March and the sun melted the snow as soon as it came out. I think true ice days and cold spells aren’t possible for the south in March, aside from exceptional circumstances.

    Yes last March and 2013 excepted, you really need continuous snowfall not showers, that is true most of the time even for here, certainly those -7c NWerlies wont do the trick here unless a really potent shortwave runner or polar low develops in the flow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    There could be warnings for severe gales out for the weekend if fridays ECM chart evolves like it might, never mind snow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Bath
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath
    14 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    Didn’t say it was impossible to get snow but in my experience long lasting lying snow just doesn’t happen in March, we had sub -10 uppers in March and the sun melted the snow as soon as it came out. I think true ice days and cold spells aren’t possible for the south in March, aside from exceptional circumstances.

    I do agree with you there. We got 2 ice days last March (ones with snow cover) but it was exceptional! It is so much easier to get ice days in the middle of winter. On Friday last week with snow on the ground we only got up to 2c with -7 uppers whereas the during the beast, lots of the days got maximums of 3 or 4 degrees with -15/-16 uppers.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, Leon1 said:

    I do agree with you there. We got 2 ice days last March (ones with snow cover) but it was exceptional! It is so much easier to get ice days in the middle of winter. On Friday last week with snow on the ground we only got up to 2c with -7 uppers whereas the during the beast, lots of the days got maximums of 3 or 4 degrees with -15/-16 uppers.

    I would question that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
    13 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Yes last March and 2013 excepted, you really need continuous snowfall not showers, that is true most of the time even for here, certainly those -7c NWerlies wont do the trick here unless a really potent shortwave runner or polar low develops in the flow.

    Lightning very rarely strikes twice in consecutive late winter/early spring periods...I'd be surprised to see anything cold and snowy again this late Feb/March period...

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    Posted
  • Location: Windsor
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and cold
  • Location: Windsor
    Just now, Leon1 said:

    I do agree with you there. We got 2 ice days last March (ones with snow cover) but it was exceptional! It is so much easier to get ice days in the middle of winter. On Friday last week with snow on the ground we only got up to 2c with -7 uppers whereas the during the beast, lots of the days got maximums of 3 or 4 degrees with -15/-16 uppers.

    I remember it being -4c during one day when I was driving to work to Gloucester after some snow fell in the Home Counties. Definitely an ice day in my books...

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, Froze were the Days said:

    Lightning very rarely strikes twice in consecutive late winter/early spring periods...I'd be surprised to see anything cold and snowy again this late Feb/March period...

    Would be ridiculous to have anything as good, but you don't need a setup that good, an overnight runner could do the trick - Think March 5th(ish) 1995.

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

    Would be ridiculous to have anything as good, but you don't need a setup that good, an overnight runner could do the trick - Think March 5th(ish) 1995.

    I remember (I think it was the evening March 2nd 1995), quite a few places in the south got fair amount of snow.

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    Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
    2 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Lightning very rarely strikes twice in consecutive late winter/early spring periods...I'd be surprised to see anything cold and snowy again this late Feb/March period...

    I agree 100% with that, I would bet my weeks salary on it.

    Last year was exceptional and followed a cold February, this month is unlikely to be cold so my bet is on a mild March although not exceptionally so.

    Andy

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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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