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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    So I read the UKMO will be wrong with its 144z and subsequent 168z? because its on its own ?

    Interesting 12z hopefully

    image.thumb.png.5ef3605b73648968f70c0e1fb37422cc.png

    image.thumb.png.9125736b4c37f2bec36bafa0c24b7f2b.png

    GFS O6Z 144Z  better

    image.thumb.png.b93e15d5b31c18e87bb9ba9adc3fca11.png

    Edited by winterof79
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    For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

    Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

    Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Early improvements on the GFS 06 hrs run .

    It doesn’t build on that later on past day 6 but still time for that change .

    Yes, its gone flat now.

    A bit like our chances of snow lately.

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    I'm thinking that some folks read 'mean anomalies' as if they were actual 'mean synoptics', and not merely  mean deviations, from the norm? ?

    Unless of course, I am completely crackers!?

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    The high is trying to build into Scandi but it is ending up as a MLB because typical as our luck is this winter, the AO is positive and the PV is very strong directly to our North now, If the attempt at Northern blocking was much further West we would be ok as relaxation of low heights is occuring over Greenland in FI.

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    I'm thinking that some folks read 'mean anomalies' as if they were actual 'mean synoptics', and not merely  mean deviations, from the norm? ?

    Unless of course, I am completely crackers!?

    I mentioned this a few weeks back.

    Say for example, around Southern Greenland has a normal mean surface pressure of 980mb and the prediction is for a mean of 995mb across the three Winter months.

    On an anomaly chart that might well look as a lovely yellow/orange potential and have us all salivating at the prospect of Greenie Heights. The reality is the surface pressure is still low and spawning low pressure.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Decent ending - Easterly bit not with brutal uppers, need the high further North but not sure with the strat vortex profile we will get it that far North.

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    14 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    So I read the UKMO will be wrong with its 144z and subsequent 168z? because its on its own ?

    Interesting 12z hopefully

    image.thumb.png.5ef3605b73648968f70c0e1fb37422cc.png

    image.thumb.png.9125736b4c37f2bec36bafa0c24b7f2b.png

    GFS O6Z 144Z  better

    image.thumb.png.b93e15d5b31c18e87bb9ba9adc3fca11.png

    More likely wrong by not definitely 

    interesting clusters - nothing much more than 25% on anything ..... one accelerated easterly by day 10 and the extended is split across 4 options with none particularly favoured so best to wait to see where we head first ....

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset

    In the current set up I'd not be expecting to see any consistently cold/snowy op runs for at least the next week and If any do appear in the meantime they will almost certainly outliers. the

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    29 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    The high is trying to build into Scandi but it is ending up as a MLB because typical as our luck is this winter, the AO is positive and the PV is very strong directly to our North now, If the attempt at Northern blocking was much further West we would be ok as relaxation of low heights is occuring over Greenland in FI.

    That exactly where I think modeling is going, I do expect that wedge to be modeled a lot stronger soon. May be it's showing slightly to early perhaps, so first attempt may not succeed, but it will later. The trend to ridge in the Atlantic is there, no doubt on that.

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    Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset

    Across the board, not looking too amazing, but as mentioned above, brief windows of opportunity between lows for some secondary school style wedgies to occur. Thinking where we are now, I wonder if we'll see a back to front month with the mildest weather of the month earlier on a cold spell at the end. February 2004 has an interesting evolution:

    archives-2004-2-5-12-0.png archives-2004-2-10-12-0.png archives-2004-2-15-12-0.png archives-2004-2-20-12-0.png archives-2004-2-25-12-0.png archives-2004-2-29-12-0.png

    All to play for I think. Despite what we have on offer this week, it is of course February, not November/December so I fully expect some more interest to appear in the models soon. 

    I should also add that given how sluggish things are at the moment, bar any transient NW or Nerlies associated with the passing of lows, we'd be looking at at least mid month for something more seasonal.

    Edited by MP-R
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    7 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

    That exactly where I think modeling is going, I do expect that wedge to be modeled a lot stronger soon. May be it's showing slightly to early perhaps, so first attempt may not succeed, but it will later. The trend to ridge in the Atlantic is there, no doubt on that.

    The only problem i see, is although the GEFS mean in deep FI looks promising on the face of it, to me it looks like a rounded MLB with not much potential for a HLB, usually with such a mean, you would have a lot of deviation, so as some would be zonal, you would then expect a cluster with Easterlies, i think we are pretty much guaranteed no potent cold spell until at least the 17th and probably 20th, but its where we go after that, to me the mid to lower strat doesn't look promising for a pressure build right now.

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    The Para is better at 150 vs the 0z with the trough digging further south and slightly more amplification in the Atlantic and Pacific.

    6z image.thumb.png.e2f4a0edb2b1667f3ebe00403d0e7587.png 0z image.thumb.png.c5afddb443ede9a1178876d1d4222eb0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester

    The 6z

    Just now, Ice Day said:

    The Para is better at 150 vs the 0z with the trough digging further south and slightly more amplification in the Atlantic and Pacific.

    6z image.thumb.png.e2f4a0edb2b1667f3ebe00403d0e7587.png 0z image.thumb.png.c5afddb443ede9a1178876d1d4222eb0.png

    Yes, it seems to have edged towards the UKMO.

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    12 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    The only problem i see, is although the GEFS mean in deep FI looks promising on the face of it, to me it looks like a rounded MLB with not much potential for a HLB, usually with such a mean, you would have a lot of deviation, so as some would be zonal, you would then expect a cluster with Easterlies, i think we are pretty much guaranteed no potent cold spell until at least the 17th and probably 20th, but its where we go after that, to me the mid to lower strat doesn't look promising for a pressure build right now.

    I think for now east is the wrong direction to be looking, next spell will come from the north again, east may come later, with luck.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, alexisj9 said:

    I think for now east is the wrong direction to be looking, next spell will come from the north again, east may come later, with luck.

    There has been tentative signs in recent GEFS suites but it looks like the mean ridge now has settled on something too far East for Greenland ridging, possibly Icelandic still possible.

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    EC clusters D8 and D10: Welcome to model confusion part 9999!!

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019020400_192.

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019020400_240.

    Basically, no idea how that ridging is going to impact our neck of the woods. Cluster 1 has a very quick flattening, and as a result an A1 pattern for a mild long-drawn SWly. Cluster 3 - perhaps UKMO like - really goes for a ridge to our north (*note - when the darkest anomaly colour shows, that's a reasonable good signal that the models will favour a ridge in that location, even in areas where low heights are the norm - it's the lighter red/orange colours that need a little more interpreting ?  ) - this will probably put us within the eastern flow of the set-up so cold would follow. Cluster 2 is a half-way house, possibly mild NW, progressively less mild as you come SE depending on whether one gets into the continental flow)

    Odds probably favour cluster 1 or 2 but interesting to see colder options still on the table at such a short timescale.

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire

    GFS ensembles maintain their markedly zonal or mild picture well out into February. I guess it underlines the fact that once a positive NAO really kicks into gear it takes a while to subside.

    For February 10th the swingometers paint a mild/average picture with westerly winds, really nothing to write home about. The best of the lot in the close range is the parallel, a poor effort.

    image.thumb.png.d11e599fa38821ab4f571525637e4ec9.pngimage.thumb.png.78d6d4b21f30f1b6ec7f9630d4cfb459.png 

    As we get to mid month, the ensembles are arguably even milder and have been consistent for quite a few runs now as the 15th of February swingometer shows. A bleak set of ensembles with P16 or the parallel being the best I can find... and they aren't even that cold.

    image.thumb.png.cbae2edda0028341497b691f8a84bc57.pngimage.thumb.png.5404246209a4dd323481ccde424cda7c.png 

    I'd argue that this has to be the worst ensemble set of the winter so far. Some of the runs with mild uppers have an anticyclone over us. Whereas this may have led to surface cold in December we will be getting to the point where days under an anticyclone can start feeling pleasent / mild. If it's cold and snow you are after then little comfort can be found from the 06z ensembles.

    The global temperature anomalies in a weeks time show that cold air from Canada is still finding a way to push into the North Atlantic and the global temperature anomaly pushing up once again. A classic positive NAO pattern with warmth over Europe and Eastern US and cold over Northern Canada. The January global temperature anomalies (right) are out from the NCEP and they show a January amongst the top 10 warmest by the looks of things. I wouldn't be surprised if January was the month which had a CET value closest to average, given December and the current February model output.

    image.thumb.png.61650bcdd954c7ca79f2105f69be3e40.pngimage.thumb.png.09cecd696a5cbb3cb468a427090c9c3e.png 

    If only we cut down on CO2 emissions and global temperatures dropped... perhaps we would have larger cold pools to tap into more often and give us the cold we chase?

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    Posted
  • Location: Durham
  • Location: Durham
    1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    GFS ensembles maintain their markedly zonal or mild picture well out into February. I guess it underlines the fact that once a positive NAO really kicks into gear it takes a while to subside.

    For February 10th the swingometers paint a mild/average picture with westerly winds, really nothing to write home about. The best of the lot in the close range is the parallel, a poor effort.

    image.thumb.png.d11e599fa38821ab4f571525637e4ec9.pngimage.thumb.png.78d6d4b21f30f1b6ec7f9630d4cfb459.png 

    As we get to mid month, the ensembles are arguably even milder and have been consistent for quite a few runs now as the 15th of February swingometer shows. A bleak set of ensembles with P16 or the parallel being the best I can find... and they aren't even that cold.

    image.thumb.png.cbae2edda0028341497b691f8a84bc57.pngimage.thumb.png.5404246209a4dd323481ccde424cda7c.png 

    I'd argue that this has to be the worst ensemble set of the winter so far. Some of the runs with mild uppers have an anticyclone over us. Whereas this may have led to surface cold in December we will be getting to the point where days under an anticyclone can start feeling pleasent / mild. If it's cold and snow you are after then little comfort can be found from the 06z ensembles.

    The global temperature anomalies in a weeks time show that cold air from Canada is still finding a way to push into the North Atlantic and the global temperature anomaly pushing up once again. A classic positive NAO pattern with warmth over Europe and Eastern US and cold over Northern Canada. The January global temperature anomalies (right) are out from the NCEP and they show a January amongst the top 10 warmest by the looks of things. I wouldn't be surprised if January was the month which had a CET value closest to average, given December and the current February model output.

    image.thumb.png.61650bcdd954c7ca79f2105f69be3e40.pngimage.thumb.png.09cecd696a5cbb3cb468a427090c9c3e.png 

    If only we cut down on CO2 emissions and global temperatures dropped... perhaps we would have larger cold pools to tap into more often and give us the cold we chase?

    Perhaps we could start to reduce the emissions by banning forums that just talk about the weather. Thus reducing energy demand! ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    1 minute ago, Disco_Stu said:

    Perhaps we could start to reduce the emissions by banning forums that just talk about the weather. Thus reducing energy demand! ?

    True, I've wasted a lot of energy getting my hopes up when a cold spell looks to be on the horizon according to the models, only for them to fail to come into fruition. ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
    1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    If only we cut down on CO2 emissions and global temperatures dropped... perhaps we would have larger cold pools to tap into more often and give us the cold we chase?

    I think you mean, "If only we weren't an island surrounded by water" lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    11 minutes ago, Rambo said:

    I think you mean, "If only we weren't an island surrounded by water" lol

    Lol that would certainly help!...

    More of a reference to the lack of colder then average temperature anomalies throughout this winter though here. Even when we had that anticyclonic spell earlier in the month, temperatures over the UK were still above average. Whereas the winter of 1879/1880 was even more anticyclonic yet it was extremely cold.

    We can still  get much colder then average temperatures as parts of Canada/US in recent days has shown (and parts of Eurasia in December). However it seems like more impressive synoptics are required nowadays to pull off such feats (such as a beast from the east) as the cold pools available to tap into are smaller..

    Last week was cold but nothing unusual.

    Edited by Quicksilver1989
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    Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

     If only we cut down on CO2 emissions and global temperatures dropped... perhaps we would have larger cold pools to tap into more often and give us the cold we chase?

    I don't think it's the lack of cold but the strength of the jet stream that has got stronger over the years making it harder for any ridges to build favourable for our benefit..  It's harder for any Scandinavian ridges to back West like it used to.

    I think somebody posted some anomaly charts of the jet stream over past decades which showed how much it's strengthened.  

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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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