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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Well what have we here on the FV3 18z at T174:

image.thumb.jpg.8526e90f21030c5966dbb8ea588ea534.jpg

Would be foolish to dismiss this as a possibility.  T192 here:

image.thumb.jpg.f0166c4e6433d564fc728113754478dd.jpg

Winter very much alive tonight! 

Edited by Mike Poole

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS - steady as she goes towards Greenland just slower than the op.

 

Number 12 please.

image.thumb.png.361af14e1f2ef752b39e750bcb943f51.png

Can you just imagine if that was the Op tonight... no matter how outlier it was. We'd be all in the pub.

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23 hours ago, Catacol said:

Nothing in the weather context over recent days to make me change mind - I say it as I see it, and I think our chances for extreme winter cold now hang by a thread. NWP is swinging ever more mild, a trend that started a week ago now....but the thread that we can hang onto hinges around potential unpredictability of the trop profile given impacts of SSW downwell in the context of an MJO signal that appears to want to circle close to phase 7 for a while yet. While the next 10 days look pretty nailed on as being effectively a strong +NAO pattern I'm not totally convinced that our favourable drivers of the entire winter have given up the ghost entirely. This is not to say confidence has returned....but hope is still present. There is some strange stuff going on. Frictional torques have remained negative for a good while - mountain torque meanwhile has remained largely positive. That's odd for a start. And it is interesting also that GEFS and EPS have both flipped to a pretty mild pattern for mid Feb, and the last EC46 was a big downgrade - but the most recent JMA monthly maintains a very negative look to the NAO. 2 week average here

Y201901.D3012.thumb.png.9e63995c0b06888bc389b22ec15cbb8b.png

and further out here

Y201901.D3012f.thumb.png.ee4447da53cecbf63712792c10433cbe.png

The UK sits top left of these charts - they are spun around to put Japan close to 6 o'clock.

So - long range modelling is not all in agreement and I suspect this is because the impacts of the downwelling hitting the trop this week properly are struggling to be correctly modelled.

So - in summary.....confidence of a very cold month has gone, but torque signals are a bit odd, MJO is perhaps about to get more stuck around phases 6 - 7 - 8 and there is a suspicion that the models are finding it a very difficult pattern to resolve. In that context all bets should probably remain off for a little longer yet. A lot happened in January as forecasts came and went, ending in the weak cold trough last week that amazingly brought more snow than was forecast even 36 hours out... so much can happen in weather terms, especially when we have had a season of so much confusion and so little coherence.

  so do you still think that we might get some impact from the start warming 

 

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS - steady as she goes towards Greenland just slower than the op.

 

Number 12 please.

image.thumb.png.361af14e1f2ef752b39e750bcb943f51.png

2

The Para is smelling something maybe as well at 240?

image.thumb.png.b44facabe71881716c8ca9198baf4ab8.png

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Just now, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Can you just imagine if that was the Op tonight... no matter how outlier it was. We'd be all in the pub.

Although could do with the trough 100 miles further North.

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS - steady as she goes towards Greenland just slower than the op.

 

Number 12 please.

image.thumb.png.361af14e1f2ef752b39e750bcb943f51.png

The gfs para going for pert 12 feb . How mad is that 😁

BEE5573B-41F2-4585-A245-44E5F8A13F9D.png

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264 is looking great

image.thumb.png.e69071e70fd828dee0b237a85d4ddd01.png

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Just now, Ice Day said:

264 is looking great

image.thumb.png.e69071e70fd828dee0b237a85d4ddd01.png

Lol beat me to it 😁

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Another push at 276 and cold pool growing colder, need that -15c slamming straight through the Peak District - Feb 2018.

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It won't look like this on the next run, but a tentative trend is emerging.  288 and this run will get colder.

image.thumb.png.147ed2480bf2a2f856e8789d7e8b0d20.png  image.thumb.png.027373e5f6e96d2371834c14ef5ab159.png

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And there she does!!!!!

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Of to Greenland now . What a run again from the para . 

5E6E90C7-06DE-4DD1-A57D-CACE09BA495C.png

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Change the title of the thread to the hunt for warmth and watch those lovely cold charts start miraculously appearing 🙂

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Maybe we're going to have one more chase for a big event this winter.  Maybe lady luck will come to our aid this time?  Great chart at 312

image.thumb.png.33f645c01de4ad4cda0c458521992ef9.png

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Just now, ICE COLD said:

Of to Greenland now . What a run again from the para . 

5E6E90C7-06DE-4DD1-A57D-CACE09BA495C.png

Always said the GFSP was the run to trust! 🙂

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3 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Always said the GFSP was the run to trust! 🙂

Well it's verifying better than the GFS Op (I suppose that's an example of being damned with faint praise!)

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One more chase to go I reckon.

Before we knock it on the head 

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Well, I'm afraid the models have all backtracked from the positive signs they were showing yesterday.

Any Atlantic ridging now looks weak and transient.🙄

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