Cold hunt - models and chat

[StretfordEnd1996 647]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS - steady as she goes towards Greenland just slower than the op.

 

Number 12 please.

Can you just imagine if that was the Op tonight... no matter how outlier it was. We'd be all in the pub.

[syed2878 778]

23 hours ago, Catacol said:

Nothing in the weather context over recent days to make me change mind - I say it as I see it, and I think our chances for extreme winter cold now hang by a thread. NWP is swinging ever more mild, a trend that started a week ago now....but the thread that we can hang onto hinges around potential unpredictability of the trop profile given impacts of SSW downwell in the context of an MJO signal that appears to want to circle close to phase 7 for a while yet. While the next 10 days look pretty nailed on as being effectively a strong +NAO pattern I'm not totally convinced that our favourable drivers of the entire winter have given up the ghost entirely. This is not to say confidence has returned....but hope is still present. There is some strange stuff going on. Frictional torques have remained negative for a good while - mountain torque meanwhile has remained largely positive. That's odd for a start. And it is interesting also that GEFS and EPS have both flipped to a pretty mild pattern for mid Feb, and the last EC46 was a big downgrade - but the most recent JMA monthly maintains a very negative look to the NAO. 2 week average here

and further out here

The UK sits top left of these charts - they are spun around to put Japan close to 6 o'clock.

So - long range modelling is not all in agreement and I suspect this is because the impacts of the downwelling hitting the trop this week properly are struggling to be correctly modelled.

So - in summary.....confidence of a very cold month has gone, but torque signals are a bit odd, MJO is perhaps about to get more stuck around phases 6 - 7 - 8 and there is a suspicion that the models are finding it a very difficult pattern to resolve. In that context all bets should probably remain off for a little longer yet. A lot happened in January as forecasts came and went, ending in the weak cold trough last week that amazingly brought more snow than was forecast even 36 hours out... so much can happen in weather terms, especially when we have had a season of so much confusion and so little coherence.

  so do you still think that we might get some impact from the start warming 

 

[Ice Day 7,151]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS - steady as she goes towards Greenland just slower than the op.

 

Number 12 please.

2

The Para is smelling something maybe as well at 240?

[feb1991blizzard 23,105]

Just now, StretfordEnd1996 said:

Can you just imagine if that was the Op tonight... no matter how outlier it was. We'd be all in the pub.

Although could do with the trough 100 miles further North.

[ICE COLD 11,585]

5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GEFS - steady as she goes towards Greenland just slower than the op.

 

Number 12 please.

The gfs para going for pert 12 feb . How mad is that ?

[Ice Day 7,151]

264 is looking great

[ICE COLD 11,585]

Oh yessss 

[ICE COLD 11,585]

Just now, Ice Day said:

264 is looking great

Lol beat me to it ?

[feb1991blizzard 23,105]

Another push at 276 and cold pool growing colder, need that -15c slamming straight through the Peak District - Feb 2018.

[ICE COLD 11,585]

???

[feb1991blizzard 23,105]

And there she does!!!!!

[Ice Day 7,151]

It won't look like this on the next run, but a tentative trend is emerging.  288 and this run will get colder.

  

[ICE COLD 11,585]

-12 850s will do 

[ICE COLD 11,585]

Of to Greenland now . What a run again from the para . 

[dixonoid 35]

Change the title of the thread to the hunt for warmth and watch those lovely cold charts start miraculously appearing ?

[Ice Day 7,151]

Maybe we're going to have one more chase for a big event this winter.  Maybe lady luck will come to our aid this time?  Great chart at 312

[booferking 6,898]

Mental NH profile.?

[Rocheydub 2,561]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

Of to Greenland now . What a run again from the para . 

Always said the GFSP was the run to trust! ?

[Ice Day 7,151]

3 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Always said the GFSP was the run to trust! ?

Well it's verifying better than the GFS Op (I suppose that's an example of being damned with faint praise!)

[cold snap 372]

One more chase to go I reckon.

Before we knock it on the head 

[booferking 6,898]

NAVGEM  smelling the coffee...

[Drifter 906]

Well, I'm afraid the models have all backtracked from the positive signs they were showing yesterday.

Any Atlantic ridging now looks weak and transient.?

[prolongedSnowLover 1,577]

Any potential from the t144 chart on Ukmo ?

[That ECM 9,020]

8 minutes ago, Drifter said:

Well, I'm afraid the models have all backtracked from the positive signs they were showing yesterday.

Any Atlantic ridging now looks weak and transient.?

I see where you are coming from but I think it’s worth saying that ukmo and ecm maintain interest ?

[Weather-history 18,670]

2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

I see where you are coming from but I think it’s worth saying that ukmo and ecm maintain interest ?

Add to that GFS does actually increase the ridge potential compared to yesterday.

Yesterday GF06z mean

Today's 0z mean for same time

I would say the trend seems to be toward anticyclonicity by the looks of it.