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Posted
  • Location: Saddleworth, Greater Manchester, in the historic West Riding of Yorkshire. 200m a.s.l
  • Weather Preferences: I like Spring. Because some Springs you can sunbathe. Some you can sledge.
  • Location: Saddleworth, Greater Manchester, in the historic West Riding of Yorkshire. 200m a.s.l
    5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    GEFS - steady as she goes towards Greenland just slower than the op.

     

    Number 12 please.

    image.thumb.png.361af14e1f2ef752b39e750bcb943f51.png

    Can you just imagine if that was the Op tonight... no matter how outlier it was. We'd be all in the pub.

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    For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

    Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

    Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
    23 hours ago, Catacol said:

    Nothing in the weather context over recent days to make me change mind - I say it as I see it, and I think our chances for extreme winter cold now hang by a thread. NWP is swinging ever more mild, a trend that started a week ago now....but the thread that we can hang onto hinges around potential unpredictability of the trop profile given impacts of SSW downwell in the context of an MJO signal that appears to want to circle close to phase 7 for a while yet. While the next 10 days look pretty nailed on as being effectively a strong +NAO pattern I'm not totally convinced that our favourable drivers of the entire winter have given up the ghost entirely. This is not to say confidence has returned....but hope is still present. There is some strange stuff going on. Frictional torques have remained negative for a good while - mountain torque meanwhile has remained largely positive. That's odd for a start. And it is interesting also that GEFS and EPS have both flipped to a pretty mild pattern for mid Feb, and the last EC46 was a big downgrade - but the most recent JMA monthly maintains a very negative look to the NAO. 2 week average here

    Y201901.D3012.thumb.png.9e63995c0b06888bc389b22ec15cbb8b.png

    and further out here

    Y201901.D3012f.thumb.png.ee4447da53cecbf63712792c10433cbe.png

    The UK sits top left of these charts - they are spun around to put Japan close to 6 o'clock.

    So - long range modelling is not all in agreement and I suspect this is because the impacts of the downwelling hitting the trop this week properly are struggling to be correctly modelled.

    So - in summary.....confidence of a very cold month has gone, but torque signals are a bit odd, MJO is perhaps about to get more stuck around phases 6 - 7 - 8 and there is a suspicion that the models are finding it a very difficult pattern to resolve. In that context all bets should probably remain off for a little longer yet. A lot happened in January as forecasts came and went, ending in the weak cold trough last week that amazingly brought more snow than was forecast even 36 hours out... so much can happen in weather terms, especially when we have had a season of so much confusion and so little coherence.

      so do you still think that we might get some impact from the start warming 

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
    5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    GEFS - steady as she goes towards Greenland just slower than the op.

     

    Number 12 please.

    image.thumb.png.361af14e1f2ef752b39e750bcb943f51.png

    2

    The Para is smelling something maybe as well at 240?

    image.thumb.png.b44facabe71881716c8ca9198baf4ab8.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    Just now, StretfordEnd1996 said:

    Can you just imagine if that was the Op tonight... no matter how outlier it was. We'd be all in the pub.

    Although could do with the trough 100 miles further North.

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    GEFS - steady as she goes towards Greenland just slower than the op.

     

    Number 12 please.

    image.thumb.png.361af14e1f2ef752b39e750bcb943f51.png

    The gfs para going for pert 12 feb . How mad is that ?

    BEE5573B-41F2-4585-A245-44E5F8A13F9D.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    264 is looking great

    image.thumb.png.e69071e70fd828dee0b237a85d4ddd01.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Another push at 276 and cold pool growing colder, need that -15c slamming straight through the Peak District - Feb 2018.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    And there she does!!!!!

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    It won't look like this on the next run, but a tentative trend is emerging.  288 and this run will get colder.

    image.thumb.png.147ed2480bf2a2f856e8789d7e8b0d20.png  image.thumb.png.027373e5f6e96d2371834c14ef5ab159.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    Maybe we're going to have one more chase for a big event this winter.  Maybe lady luck will come to our aid this time?  Great chart at 312

    image.thumb.png.33f645c01de4ad4cda0c458521992ef9.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
    Just now, ICE COLD said:

    Of to Greenland now . What a run again from the para . 

    5E6E90C7-06DE-4DD1-A57D-CACE09BA495C.png

    Always said the GFSP was the run to trust! ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
    3 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

    Always said the GFSP was the run to trust! ?

    Well it's verifying better than the GFS Op (I suppose that's an example of being damned with faint praise!)

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    Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire

    Well, I'm afraid the models have all backtracked from the positive signs they were showing yesterday.

    Any Atlantic ridging now looks weak and transient.?

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    8 minutes ago, Drifter said:

    Well, I'm afraid the models have all backtracked from the positive signs they were showing yesterday.

    Any Atlantic ridging now looks weak and transient.?

    I see where you are coming from but I think it’s worth saying that ukmo and ecm maintain interest ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    2 minutes ago, That ECM said:

    I see where you are coming from but I think it’s worth saying that ukmo and ecm maintain interest ?

    Add to that GFS does actually increase the ridge potential compared to yesterday.

    Yesterday GF06z mean

    GFSAVGEU06_174_1.png

    Today's 0z mean for same time

    GFSAVGEU00_156_1.png

    I would say the trend seems to be toward anticyclonicity by the looks of it.

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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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