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Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    Just now, JeffC said:

    To be fair if you want a  More purist model thread it exists here

     

     

    Yeh that's true Jeff, but ya need a bloody PhD just to understand that thread!! ?

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    For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

    Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

    Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    3 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    I'm not sure whether its because people rate it higher or whether its because it has much more data available.

    If I could view the ECM ensembles as quickly as the GFS, it ran 4 times a day and was able to look 2 weeks ahead, I would focus much more on the ECM.

    Yeh, understood, if ecm made the data that gfs does available, and regards to more runs per day like you say, then I'm pretty sure it would be most people's main port of call

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
    7 minutes ago, booferking said:

    The amplification happens after the low slides this is the area to watch FV3 slides the low quicker net result more amplified run.

    True, I was initially commenting on the 96-120 on the pub run, but dues to you, it got better after that!

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    2 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

    If you cant  stand the heat keep out of the kitchen  ?

    See what I mean, youve lost me already! ?

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    Well at least we get an easterly

    image.thumb.png.27d9a4f8fd39d3fc8da03772f8cdd02d.png

    A mild one!

    image.thumb.png.1da95fb5b1691e58430da9a7f2bd59c5.png

    Well, maybe not exactly mild but ... you get the drift

    image.thumb.png.dee76c162817ac58cb684bfc0af126ce.png

    ?

     

    Edited by Purga
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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    1 minute ago, Rocheydub said:

    True, I was initially commenting on the 96-120 on the pub run, but dues to you, it got better after that!

    Interested to see if the FV3 can keep the trend going from earlier.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, booferking said:

    Interested to see if the FV3 can keep the trend going from earlier.

    Never mind the FV3 - this run hasn't finished yet -  Greenland BOOM!

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    Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
    18 minutes ago, Borei said:

    This is where grammar and punctuation are crucial. Your words could mean two completely opposite sentiments, and I have no idea which.

    Please clarify.

     

    Sorry I'll try better next time.??

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    Posted
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
  • Location: Siston, Bristol 70m ASL
    5 minutes ago, Purga said:

    Well at least we get an easterly

    image.thumb.png.27d9a4f8fd39d3fc8da03772f8cdd02d.png

    A mild one!

    image.thumb.png.1da95fb5b1691e58430da9a7f2bd59c5.png

    Well, maybe not exactly mild but ... you get the drift

    image.thumb.png.dee76c162817ac58cb684bfc0af126ce.png

    ?

     

    The word faux cold shall return!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    And just before Greenland, here is the 'warm' Easterly.

    image.thumb.png.34371f9f5850f006d4cced368c3eb06c.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Just for fun, of course, but the pub run goes off on one as far as blocking is concerned, here T264 and T300:

    image.thumb.jpg.bb137350bf9ec4585138784fcda58b2d.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.3d021045d0bfc3a7189ff9326cd049d5.jpg

    Not saying this is likely, or particularly snowy if it did happen, what I am saying the zonal train is not the most likely train come mid February.  Not at all!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
    7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Never mind the FV3 - this run hasn't finished yet -  Greenland BOOM!

    Doesn't quite make it but a decent effort

    image.thumb.png.897ece68c897a0b65cdcdff881fc741c.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Now for the important part - the GEFS, lets hope we can get a few more daffodil runs like the op.

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Now for the important part - the GEFS, lets hope we can get a few more daffodil runs like the op.

    Some of us have got to go to work in the morning!

    ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

    Yes, just two clusters at D8:

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019020312_192.

    Block holding fairly well by D10 on cluster 1. Not a raging easterly but likely to be surface cold at very least

    ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019020312_240.

    Well that’s a good place to start MWB . Just under 60% for cluster 1 , nice one . Let’s hope we build on it tomorrow ?

    Edited by ICE COLD
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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    15 minutes ago, Jason M said:

    So, a UK high. You wouldn't want to bet much against it as its a repeating pattern.

    Very typical of the 12Z ensemble suite. 

    I personally think that will move west as it gets closer. We'll see next week I guess.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    GFSP out to 156 looking very similar to the 12z, the but Pacific ridge is stronger on this run.  Not sure it will help or hinder, but it's there!

    image.thumb.png.2ebff528e17751dc946f303eb0073248.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    Gfsp out to T180 and looks better than the 18z op ?

    CA84788A-2DCC-4C27-9021-117BE586FE13.png

    Edited by ICE COLD
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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Well what have we here on the FV3 18z at T174:

    image.thumb.jpg.8526e90f21030c5966dbb8ea588ea534.jpg

    Would be foolish to dismiss this as a possibility.  T192 here:

    image.thumb.jpg.f0166c4e6433d564fc728113754478dd.jpg

    Winter very much alive tonight! 

    Edited by Mike Poole
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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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