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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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31 minutes ago, pacifist99 said:

That’s true but this forum is been ruined with statements like the one I’ve quoted.  Some of you may not like me for what I’m saying BUT I’m only stating what all of the more experienced members are thinking.  It’s a model thread and we having to sift through hundreds of statements like this just to get an idea of what the weather going to be like.  I’m only stating THE TRUTSh.  Enough is enough now.  This thread has gone downhill big time recently 

To be fair if you want a  More purist model thread it exists here

 

 

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14 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Yeh, good point, after spending quite a bit of time on American forums, it's blatantly obvious they hate it to. Literally everyone says it over blows everything, from dartboard lows to massive amounts of snow, to non at all. ECM has far more credentials, which is why I'm so bemused as to why so many seem to rate it on here, especially as the 18 and 6z have far less data input into it 🤔

I'm not sure whether its because people rate it higher or whether its because it has much more data available.

If I could view the ECM ensembles as quickly as the GFS, it ran 4 times a day and was able to look 2 weeks ahead, I would focus much more on the ECM.

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Just now, JeffC said:

To be fair if you want a  More purist model thread it exists here

 

 

Yeh that's true Jeff, but ya need a bloody PhD just to understand that thread!! 😜

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1 minute ago, Mattwolves said:

Yeh that's true Jeff, but ya need a bloody PhD just to understand that thread!! 😜

If you cant  stand the heat keep out of the kitchen  😂

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3 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I'm not sure whether its because people rate it higher or whether its because it has much more data available.

If I could view the ECM ensembles as quickly as the GFS, it ran 4 times a day and was able to look 2 weeks ahead, I would focus much more on the ECM.

Yeh, understood, if ecm made the data that gfs does available, and regards to more runs per day like you say, then I'm pretty sure it would be most people's main port of call

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7 minutes ago, booferking said:

The amplification happens after the low slides this is the area to watch FV3 slides the low quicker net result more amplified run.

True, I was initially commenting on the 96-120 on the pub run, but dues to you, it got better after that!

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2 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

If you cant  stand the heat keep out of the kitchen  😂

See what I mean, youve lost me already! 😉

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Well at least we get an easterly

image.thumb.png.27d9a4f8fd39d3fc8da03772f8cdd02d.png

A mild one!

image.thumb.png.1da95fb5b1691e58430da9a7f2bd59c5.png

Well, maybe not exactly mild but ... you get the drift

image.thumb.png.dee76c162817ac58cb684bfc0af126ce.png

🤣

 

Edited by Purga

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1 minute ago, Rocheydub said:

True, I was initially commenting on the 96-120 on the pub run, but dues to you, it got better after that!

Interested to see if the FV3 can keep the trend going from earlier.

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2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Interested to see if the FV3 can keep the trend going from earlier.

Never mind the FV3 - this run hasn't finished yet -  Greenland BOOM!

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18 minutes ago, Borei said:

This is where grammar and punctuation are crucial. Your words could mean two completely opposite sentiments, and I have no idea which.

Please clarify.

 

Sorry I'll try better next time.🤣🤣

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Never mind the FV3 - this run hasn't finished yet -  Greenland BOOM!

😍😍😍

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5 minutes ago, Purga said:

Well at least we get an easterly

image.thumb.png.27d9a4f8fd39d3fc8da03772f8cdd02d.png

A mild one!

image.thumb.png.1da95fb5b1691e58430da9a7f2bd59c5.png

Well, maybe not exactly mild but ... you get the drift

image.thumb.png.dee76c162817ac58cb684bfc0af126ce.png

🤣

 

The word faux cold shall return!

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And just before Greenland, here is the 'warm' Easterly.

image.thumb.png.34371f9f5850f006d4cced368c3eb06c.png

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So, a UK high. You wouldn't want to bet much against it as its a repeating pattern.

Very typical of the 12Z ensemble suite. 

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Just for fun, of course, but the pub run goes off on one as far as blocking is concerned, here T264 and T300:

image.thumb.jpg.bb137350bf9ec4585138784fcda58b2d.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.3d021045d0bfc3a7189ff9326cd049d5.jpg

Not saying this is likely, or particularly snowy if it did happen, what I am saying the zonal train is not the most likely train come mid February.  Not at all!

 

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7 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Never mind the FV3 - this run hasn't finished yet -  Greenland BOOM!

Doesn't quite make it but a decent effort

image.thumb.png.897ece68c897a0b65cdcdff881fc741c.png

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Now for the important part - the GEFS, lets hope we can get a few more daffodil runs like the op.

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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Now for the important part - the GEFS, lets hope we can get a few more daffodil runs like the op.

Some of us have got to go to work in the morning!

😂

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Yes, just two clusters at D8:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019020312_192.

Block holding fairly well by D10 on cluster 1. Not a raging easterly but likely to be surface cold at very least

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019020312_240.

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6 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Yes, just two clusters at D8:

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019020312_192.

Block holding fairly well by D10 on cluster 1. Not a raging easterly but likely to be surface cold at very least

ec-ens_nat_z500scenarios_2019020312_240.

Well that’s a good place to start MWB . Just under 60% for cluster 1 , nice one . Let’s hope we build on it tomorrow 👍

Edited by ICE COLD

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15 minutes ago, Jason M said:

So, a UK high. You wouldn't want to bet much against it as its a repeating pattern.

Very typical of the 12Z ensemble suite. 

I personally think that will move west as it gets closer. We'll see next week I guess.

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GFSP out to 156 looking very similar to the 12z, the but Pacific ridge is stronger on this run.  Not sure it will help or hinder, but it's there!

image.thumb.png.2ebff528e17751dc946f303eb0073248.png

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Gfsp out to T180 and looks better than the 18z op 👍

CA84788A-2DCC-4C27-9021-117BE586FE13.png

Edited by ICE COLD

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