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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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5 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

It's a "trop" for a start. Sorry if that sounds smartass. It's short for troposphere.

No probs it's my predictive text lol

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24 minutes ago, shaky said:

Its amazing how much of an outlier the ecm is at just days 3 and 4!!!

Where ???.  Looks pretty much spot on the mean to me ....a bit out to the ne but frame by frame the op against the mean - you’ll struggle to find a run that’s closer .....ever!

if you’re referring to  the uppers then technically it is out at day 4 but that’s a very narrow spread and perfectly feasible, given the set up. Careful within the ridge trough set up ....the op may be a bit fast on the timing but it’s the same pattern . (Re slp and heights) 

Edited by bluearmy

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Has anyone checked out wetterzentrale ensembles recently? Seems they got a slight makeover - Looks quite nice, even has a feature that you can over over each ensemble and it tells you the temp for that run 🙂

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So very interesting week ahead cold and some snow around the bbc did mention there could be snow showers Wednesday night in to Thursday for  south east England I can’t see nothing in models for this snow for South East England Wednesday into Thursday anyone have any idea on this thanks..

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Where ???.  Looks pretty much spot on the mean to me ....a bit out to the ne but frame by frame the op against the mean - you’ll struggle to find a run that’s closer .....ever!

Nick why your about it’s going all a bit titts up isn’t it looking at your comments on the extended eps in the other thread ? As in not looking as good as it was ? 

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1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

So very interesting week ahead cold and some snow around the bbc did mention there could be snow showers Wednesday night in to Thursday for  south east England I can’t see nothing in models for this snow for South East England Wednesday into Thursday anyone have any idea on this thanks..

EC shows it, not UKMO or GFS

ECM1-72.GIF?20-0ECM1-96.GIF?20-0

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Look at the pressure rise on the pub-run in the GIN corridor at 48 already from the 12z.... #Justsaying 

Stronger potential of a link up between Atlantic and Arctic.

Edited by Rocheydub

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I’ll wait to see the clusters later ....could be a more binary set of clusters which flattens the mean pattern a bit ..... however, I think it’s more to do with the persistence of the Canadian vortex which maintains the jet flattening the attempted ridging as per the op. Could work better, could work worse re conditions for us (re snowfall) 

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Hmmmmmm GIN!!!

Sounds like my sort of Corridor 

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EPS mean - 2cm snow from Tuesday's event.

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16 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Where ???.  Looks pretty much spot on the mean to me ....a bit out to the ne but frame by frame the op against the mean - you’ll struggle to find a run that’s closer .....ever!

if you’re referring to  the uppers then technically it is out at day 4 but that’s a very narrow spread and perfectly feasible, given the set up. Careful within the ridge trough set up ....the op may be a bit fast on the timing but it’s the same pattern . (Re slp and heights) 

Yeh i i meant to say 850hpa wise

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8 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

EC shows it, not UKMO or GFS

ECM1-72.GIF?20-0ECM1-96.GIF?20-0

My mind is hurting from looking at the weather for so long. When I shut my eyes all i see is pressure charts.

can this cold weather just arriv already!?

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Interesting upgrade for Tuesday night and now in the realiable 

Could be a decent enough covering

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1 minute ago, Oliver Wyndham-lewis said:

My mind is hurting from looking at the weather for so long. When I shut my eyes all i see is pressure charts.

can this cold weather just arriv already!?

Nah, it’s already late! 😂

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The early changes in the GIN corridor show that we are not in any way set into anything yet. No great pattern change in the near term, but there is scope for a link up with Arctic highs sooner than later. One to watch. 

 

C'mon baby, give us a link!

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8 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

EPS mean - 2cm snow from Tuesday's event.

Where? 

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

Where? 

Diggle.

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6 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Diggle.

Get the shovels ready.

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1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

lol nobody mention the E word in here again for the sake of everyone's sanity

Someone mention E....I would certainly feel better popping a couple after reading the last 2 hours of this thread...Blimey!!!

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