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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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5 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

So this's how the GFS ends:

image.thumb.png.4de812712930d93396d57afa29b8ab16.pngimage.thumb.png.ce9e1894b98a2c79c170945bd80738c8.png  

I'll be very interested to see just how differently the FV3 evolves.

Need that high to shift a thousand miles north.

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11 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Lots of support in the GEFS at the same time frame. Positive developments this evening ?

Yes at T216 lots of members pushing heights north,  and that's well before the high pressure in Europe really gets established, so a good chance that might not happen at all.  

No Narnia charts on the radar at the moment, but this could well change into the second part of the month.  Which, while it's quiet in here, prompts me to ask why are snowmageddon charts always referred to as 'Narnia' or 'Nirvana'?  Granted they both begin with 'N' but beyond that there's no similarity at all, Nirvana is a Buddhist state of contentment, and Narnia is a village near Didcot:

image.thumb.jpg.31a469e16af09fd5ffadfc071b72dd55.jpg

In neither case do I see the connection to snow!  (Apart from in the picture!  Must have been during the Beast that! :oldgrin:)

 

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Signals in the right direction from all models so far, those height rises are what could potentially lead us to an easterly. Too early to get excited, we could just end up under the HP, but at least we are seeing some sort of change compared to the really flat runs from the past few days (and nobody wants those)

GFS seems to be the odd one out here, but let's not forget how it tends to overblow those lows

Edited by edinburgh_1992
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Amazing differences continue in terms of the MJO forecasts ,

The ECM edges the signal back to phase 6 before it then moves back to phase  7 then 8 at lower amplitude .

The GFS takes this into phase 6 and takes much longer to get back to phase 7 and high amplitude .

The last time we saw these amplitude differences the GFS was proven to be wrong .

In terms of the outputs the models agree on the broad pattern at day 6 but the position of the low over the UK is different.

The better evolution past day 6 would be with the low further se and weaker with a bigger gap between it and the deep troughing over the ne of Canada at that point .

That troughing will move east and the configuration of the PV to the nw and ne means you will end up with a wedge of high pressure pushed east ne ahead of it .

The key is to get that low over the UK at day 6 sufficiently se and as weak as possible . Phasing issues could come into play with the upstream troughing .

 

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5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes at T216 lots of members pushing heights north,  and that's well before the high pressure in Europe really gets established, so a good chance that might not happen at all.  

No Narnia charts on the radar at the moment, but this could well change into the second part of the month.  Which, while it's quiet in here, prompts me to ask why are snowmageddon charts always referred to as 'Narnia' or 'Nirvana'?  Granted they both begin with 'N' but beyond that there's no similarity at all, Nirvana is a Buddhist state of contentment, and Narnia is a village near Didcot:

image.thumb.jpg.31a469e16af09fd5ffadfc071b72dd55.jpg

In neither case do I see the connection to snow!  (Apart from in the picture!  Must have been during the Beast that! )

 

Seriously?? You've never seen/read 'The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe??

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Still no sign of that bloody piece of vortex taking a hike, when will it show signs of weakness? Bloody thing has been driving me mental all winter, it’s looked amongst the models like weakening several times then as we move towards reliable timeframes it strengthens again and spits another low at us.

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1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

Seriously?? You've never seen/read 'The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe??

Yes, but I was ignoring it for comedy purposes!  Maybe?  Well I read it, not sure what you meant by seeing it, I just don't have that kind of wardrobe!  I'll get my coat...

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GFS PARA heading towards the Pot of Gold again, the wedge of heights over Greenland/Iceland seems to be splitting up the lows moving west to east and inviting amplification, this is not the only run or model doing this, though the operationals haven't been keen, but as the PARA is probably the better of the two with resolution, it's verification would seem more plausible.

GFSPARAEU12_204_1.thumb.png.d43d40c953d271e04759387c40b7950c.pngGFSPARAEU12_204_2.thumb.png.f2e9a61c9090d7f52c7cec3a8361cacd.png

 

Edited by Nick F
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The bad news is GFS Op is diabolical -'nuff said.

The good news is GFS Parallel shows this at 213hrs

image.thumb.png.fa8865e53ae2ffff6c2d65605455d828.pngimage.thumb.png.30392f3bd736b0d478a982ccb43999ac.png

Also the 12z GEFS so far show more cold solutions starting to appear.

image.thumb.png.a3caed8f096ce5f20be36c00ee759666.png

 

 

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1 minute ago, Purga said:

The bad news is GFS Op is diabolical -'nuff said.

The good news is GFS Parallel shows this at 213hrs

Also the 12z GEFS so far show more cold solutions starting to appear.

image.thumb.png.a3caed8f096ce5f20be36c00ee759666.png

 

 

Fair amount of scatter but not many real proper cold runs is there? There’s probably like 3/4 that breach the -5 mark at a relative timeframe and bar one they look transient in nature judging by the sharp rises 

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6 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Maybe! But wouldn't it be nice to be able to turn round and say all of us on netweather had just been part of the coldest weather in a generation! This place would be in meltdown, I think we deserve it, we probably spend more time than anywhere in the world looking for these extremes, and we end up looking at the dross that gfs spills out in 2 weeks. We have major flips, it happens, it will happen, the chase can't be given up till the final 3rd of the month. 

Need to keep sticking at it. Weather that's the word weather it shows mild cold we will still be watching lol with eager

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