Cold hunt - models and chat

[Jason M 2,963]

Para going the way of GEM. Of note amongst the GEFS was that despite looking good at 180 most then went on to dump us under a UK high yet again. Lets see where this one takes us!

[feb1991blizzard 21,991]

Really good agreement now and big confidence in the forecast right out to 384.

[Mike Poole 26,864]

11 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Lots of support in the GEFS at the same time frame. Positive developments this evening ?

Yes at T216 lots of members pushing heights north,  and that's well before the high pressure in Europe really gets established, so a good chance that might not happen at all.  

No Narnia charts on the radar at the moment, but this could well change into the second part of the month.  Which, while it's quiet in here, prompts me to ask why are snowmageddon charts always referred to as 'Narnia' or 'Nirvana'?  Granted they both begin with 'N' but beyond that there's no similarity at all, Nirvana is a Buddhist state of contentment, and Narnia is a village near Didcot:

In neither case do I see the connection to snow!  (Apart from in the picture!  Must have been during the Beast that! )

 

[Jason M 2,963]

1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Really good agreement now and big confidence in the forecast right out to 384.

I assume your being ironic here. Not how I see it this evening.

[XtremeUKWeather 233]

1 minute ago, Jason M said:

I assume your being ironic here. Not how I see it this evening.

Sarcasm haha rlly alot of confusion in models 

[bobbydog 14,295]

Lol here we go....

The FV3 has detected a pulse...

Its begun CPR on winter.... 3-2-1- CLEAR!!

[TEITS 14,683]

Incoming E,ly on the Parallel. Incredible difference compared to Op. Something a foot here!

[Johnp 2,836]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Really good agreement now and big confidence in the forecast right out to 384.

 

[Mike Poole 26,864]

FV3 T180 sees the GEM and raises!

[edinburgh_1992 912]

Signals in the right direction from all models so far, those height rises are what could potentially lead us to an easterly. Too early to get excited, we could just end up under the HP, but at least we are seeing some sort of change compared to the really flat runs from the past few days (and nobody wants those)

GFS seems to be the odd one out here, but let's not forget how it tends to overblow those lows

Edited February 3, 2019 by edinburgh_1992

[nick sussex 59,562]

Amazing differences continue in terms of the MJO forecasts ,

The ECM edges the signal back to phase 6 before it then moves back to phase  7 then 8 at lower amplitude .

The GFS takes this into phase 6 and takes much longer to get back to phase 7 and high amplitude .

The last time we saw these amplitude differences the GFS was proven to be wrong .

In terms of the outputs the models agree on the broad pattern at day 6 but the position of the low over the UK is different.

The better evolution past day 6 would be with the low further se and weaker with a bigger gap between it and the deep troughing over the ne of Canada at that point .

That troughing will move east and the configuration of the PV to the nw and ne means you will end up with a wedge of high pressure pushed east ne ahead of it .

The key is to get that low over the UK at day 6 sufficiently se and as weak as possible . Phasing issues could come into play with the upstream troughing .

 

[bobbydog 14,295]

5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Yes at T216 lots of members pushing heights north,  and that's well before the high pressure in Europe really gets established, so a good chance that might not happen at all.  

No Narnia charts on the radar at the moment, but this could well change into the second part of the month.  Which, while it's quiet in here, prompts me to ask why are snowmageddon charts always referred to as 'Narnia' or 'Nirvana'?  Granted they both begin with 'N' but beyond that there's no similarity at all, Nirvana is a Buddhist state of contentment, and Narnia is a village near Didcot:

In neither case do I see the connection to snow!  (Apart from in the picture!  Must have been during the Beast that! )

 

Seriously?? You've never seen/read 'The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe??

[Vikos 1,552]

It's all down to EC now to make it a Straight Flush or just a simple pair

[bobbydog 14,295]

"Hey! What are you doing in the wardrobe?"

"Narnia business..."

[Weathizard 4,683]

Still no sign of that bloody piece of vortex taking a hike, when will it show signs of weakness? Bloody thing has been driving me mental all winter, it’s looked amongst the models like weakening several times then as we move towards reliable timeframes it strengthens again and spits another low at us.

[Mike Poole 26,864]

1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

Seriously?? You've never seen/read 'The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe??

Yes, but I was ignoring it for comedy purposes!  Maybe?  Well I read it, not sure what you meant by seeing it, I just don't have that kind of wardrobe!  I'll get my coat...

[Nick F 22,235]

GFS PARA heading towards the Pot of Gold again, the wedge of heights over Greenland/Iceland seems to be splitting up the lows moving west to east and inviting amplification, this is not the only run or model doing this, though the operationals haven't been keen, but as the PARA is probably the better of the two with resolution, it's verification would seem more plausible.

 

Edited February 3, 2019 by Nick F

[Purga 4,752]

The bad news is GFS Op is diabolical -'nuff said.

The good news is GFS Parallel shows this at 213hrs

Also the 12z GEFS so far show more cold solutions starting to appear.

 

 

[Jason M 2,963]

This would seem to be the perfect opportunity for ECM to throw out one of its day 10 easterlies. Don't fall for it people 

[Weathizard 4,683]

1 minute ago, Purga said:

The bad news is GFS Op is diabolical -'nuff said.

The good news is GFS Parallel shows this at 213hrs

Also the 12z GEFS so far show more cold solutions starting to appear.

 

 

Fair amount of scatter but not many real proper cold runs is there? There’s probably like 3/4 that breach the -5 mark at a relative timeframe and bar one they look transient in nature judging by the sharp rises 

[weathermadbarnsleylad 588]

6 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Maybe! But wouldn't it be nice to be able to turn round and say all of us on netweather had just been part of the coldest weather in a generation! This place would be in meltdown, I think we deserve it, we probably spend more time than anywhere in the world looking for these extremes, and we end up looking at the dross that gfs spills out in 2 weeks. We have major flips, it happens, it will happen, the chase can't be given up till the final 3rd of the month. 

Need to keep sticking at it. Weather that's the word weather it shows mild cold we will still be watching lol with eager

[XtremeUKWeather 233]

alright now now

[weathermadbarnsleylad 588]

Like I said last few days .models are getting to grips with the former extreme cold in america. A few more days and we could be(and I mean could) be looking at epic cold charts again.

[bobbydog 14,295]

Apparently, 222 (hrs) is the number of the beast...

[Purga 4,752]

3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Fair amount of scatter but not many real proper cold runs is there? There’s probably like 3/4 that breach the -5 mark at a relative timeframe and bar one they look transient in nature judging by the sharp rises 

I disagree, there are some peaches in there - e.g.

Granted a minority but a resurgence nonetheless.