Jump to content
Cold?
Local
Radar
Snow?

Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

    Para going the way of GEM. Of note amongst the GEFS was that despite looking good at 180 most then went on to dump us under a UK high yet again. Lets see where this one takes us!

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Spotted a post you think may be an issue? Please help the team by reporting it.
    • Replies 12.2k
    • Created
    • Last Reply

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Top Posters In This Topic

    Popular Posts

    For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

    Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

    Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Really good agreement now and big confidence in the forecast right out to 384.

    image.thumb.png.16ce538001a1cc1a8ff5026de45f22d5.png

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    11 minutes ago, Jason M said:

    Lots of support in the GEFS at the same time frame. Positive developments this evening ?

    Yes at T216 lots of members pushing heights north,  and that's well before the high pressure in Europe really gets established, so a good chance that might not happen at all.  

    No Narnia charts on the radar at the moment, but this could well change into the second part of the month.  Which, while it's quiet in here, prompts me to ask why are snowmageddon charts always referred to as 'Narnia' or 'Nirvana'?  Granted they both begin with 'N' but beyond that there's no similarity at all, Nirvana is a Buddhist state of contentment, and Narnia is a village near Didcot:

    image.thumb.jpg.31a469e16af09fd5ffadfc071b72dd55.jpg

    In neither case do I see the connection to snow!  (Apart from in the picture!  Must have been during the Beast that! :oldgrin:)

     

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Really good agreement now and big confidence in the forecast right out to 384.

    image.thumb.png.16ce538001a1cc1a8ff5026de45f22d5.png

    I assume your being ironic here. Not how I see it this evening.

    • Like 2
    • Thanks 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

    Lol here we go....

    gfsnh-0-204-1.thumb.png.0318bc2127193d6dbe7ef3b8ac63fb95.png

    The FV3 has detected a pulse...

    Its begun CPR on winter.... 3-2-1- CLEAR!!

    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
    2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Really good agreement now and big confidence in the forecast right out to 384.

    image.thumb.png.16ce538001a1cc1a8ff5026de45f22d5.png

     

    DC4FF689-76C7-467C-A2FF-A8360C085593.gif

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh

    Signals in the right direction from all models so far, those height rises are what could potentially lead us to an easterly. Too early to get excited, we could just end up under the HP, but at least we are seeing some sort of change compared to the really flat runs from the past few days (and nobody wants those)

    GFS seems to be the odd one out here, but let's not forget how it tends to overblow those lows

    Edited by edinburgh_1992
    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Amazing differences continue in terms of the MJO forecasts ,

    The ECM edges the signal back to phase 6 before it then moves back to phase  7 then 8 at lower amplitude .

    The GFS takes this into phase 6 and takes much longer to get back to phase 7 and high amplitude .

    The last time we saw these amplitude differences the GFS was proven to be wrong .

    In terms of the outputs the models agree on the broad pattern at day 6 but the position of the low over the UK is different.

    The better evolution past day 6 would be with the low further se and weaker with a bigger gap between it and the deep troughing over the ne of Canada at that point .

    That troughing will move east and the configuration of the PV to the nw and ne means you will end up with a wedge of high pressure pushed east ne ahead of it .

    The key is to get that low over the UK at day 6 sufficiently se and as weak as possible . Phasing issues could come into play with the upstream troughing .

     

    • Like 2
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
    5 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    Yes at T216 lots of members pushing heights north,  and that's well before the high pressure in Europe really gets established, so a good chance that might not happen at all.  

    No Narnia charts on the radar at the moment, but this could well change into the second part of the month.  Which, while it's quiet in here, prompts me to ask why are snowmageddon charts always referred to as 'Narnia' or 'Nirvana'?  Granted they both begin with 'N' but beyond that there's no similarity at all, Nirvana is a Buddhist state of contentment, and Narnia is a village near Didcot:

    image.thumb.jpg.31a469e16af09fd5ffadfc071b72dd55.jpg

    In neither case do I see the connection to snow!  (Apart from in the picture!  Must have been during the Beast that! )

     

    Seriously?? You've never seen/read 'The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe??

    • Like 4
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany
  • Weather Preferences: Cold winters, hot summers
  • Location: 50/50 Greece/Germany

    It's all down to EC now to make it a Straight Flush or just a simple pair

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

    "Hey! What are you doing in the wardrobe?"

    "Narnia business..."

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Still no sign of that bloody piece of vortex taking a hike, when will it show signs of weakness? Bloody thing has been driving me mental all winter, it’s looked amongst the models like weakening several times then as we move towards reliable timeframes it strengthens again and spits another low at us.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 minute ago, bobbydog said:

    Seriously?? You've never seen/read 'The Lion, The Witch and The Wardrobe??

    Yes, but I was ignoring it for comedy purposes!  Maybe?  Well I read it, not sure what you meant by seeing it, I just don't have that kind of wardrobe!  I'll get my coat...

    • Like 1
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

    GFS PARA heading towards the Pot of Gold again, the wedge of heights over Greenland/Iceland seems to be splitting up the lows moving west to east and inviting amplification, this is not the only run or model doing this, though the operationals haven't been keen, but as the PARA is probably the better of the two with resolution, it's verification would seem more plausible.

    GFSPARAEU12_204_1.thumb.png.d43d40c953d271e04759387c40b7950c.pngGFSPARAEU12_204_2.thumb.png.f2e9a61c9090d7f52c7cec3a8361cacd.png

     

    Edited by Nick F
    • Like 9
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    The bad news is GFS Op is diabolical -'nuff said.

    The good news is GFS Parallel shows this at 213hrs

    image.thumb.png.fa8865e53ae2ffff6c2d65605455d828.pngimage.thumb.png.30392f3bd736b0d478a982ccb43999ac.png

    Also the 12z GEFS so far show more cold solutions starting to appear.

    image.thumb.png.a3caed8f096ce5f20be36c00ee759666.png

     

     

    • Like 7
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
    1 minute ago, Purga said:

    The bad news is GFS Op is diabolical -'nuff said.

    The good news is GFS Parallel shows this at 213hrs

    Also the 12z GEFS so far show more cold solutions starting to appear.

    image.thumb.png.a3caed8f096ce5f20be36c00ee759666.png

     

     

    Fair amount of scatter but not many real proper cold runs is there? There’s probably like 3/4 that breach the -5 mark at a relative timeframe and bar one they look transient in nature judging by the sharp rises 

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
    6 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

    Maybe! But wouldn't it be nice to be able to turn round and say all of us on netweather had just been part of the coldest weather in a generation! This place would be in meltdown, I think we deserve it, we probably spend more time than anywhere in the world looking for these extremes, and we end up looking at the dross that gfs spills out in 2 weeks. We have major flips, it happens, it will happen, the chase can't be given up till the final 3rd of the month. 

    Need to keep sticking at it. Weather that's the word weather it shows mild cold we will still be watching lol with eager

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley

    Like I said last few days .models are getting to grips with the former extreme cold in america. A few more days and we could be(and I mean could) be looking at epic cold charts again.

    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl

    Apparently, 222 (hrs) is the number of the beast...

    gfs-2-222.thumb.png.c3507c69ad33439cc88a933108758c7e.png

    • Like 6
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex
    3 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    Fair amount of scatter but not many real proper cold runs is there? There’s probably like 3/4 that breach the -5 mark at a relative timeframe and bar one they look transient in nature judging by the sharp rises 

    I disagree, there are some peaches in there - e.g.

    image.thumb.png.1aaf711e771e209954cd61419914f370.pngimage.thumb.png.4237e06efe2ec4c59d21eac065e234ab.png

    Granted a minority but a resurgence nonetheless.

    • Like 3
    Link to post
    Share on other sites
    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

    Guest
    This topic is now closed to further replies.
    ×
    ×
    • Create New...