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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Rather a more modest ambition just to see some winter weather at all, and some of us did yesterday, longest continuous snowfall in my area that I can remember. That already puts this winter above every one of the last 6 apart from last year!  

I would agree with that.

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

Posted Images

UKMO extended remains unsettled western areas especially will be seeing plenty of rain next week some in the east but amounts probably a bit lower

ukm2.2019020912_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.6313699aefdbcd5d383af7c9f61fbdcc.png

The rain combined with snow melt could cause some localized issues with minor flooding where the heaviest falls occurred

 

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21 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

So, just over 2/3 of the way through winter, what have we learnt?

  • Idiots like me who suggested a front loaded cold winter for the UK based on a predicted, and actual, weak tropospheric polar vortex in December, were wrong.  Won't do that again!  Possible reason, unfavourable sea surface temperatures, left over from summer.
  • The SSW event was well forecast but proceeded much slower than expected in terms of the run up, and later on in the downwelling.
  • Colder conditions the last couple of weeks likely the first effects on the UK of that downwelling, but if the ultimate effect of an SSW is for cold to impact the mid latitudes - somewhere - it's hard to argue against the US being the recipients this time!  
  • A period of milder Atlantic based weather is now likely, how long an open question.
  • Long range models, forecasts, particularly the much vaunted ECM 46 have performed poorly for the UK.  They have been consistent, yes, but now looking consistently wrong.  
  • Still every chance the SSW will influence out weather for several weeks more, so if the jet buckles favourably, I would not be surprised to see a high latitude block favourable for the UK.  But the clock, if not yet ticking, has at least been wound up!

Finally, what are we in the hunt for cold for?  Speaking for myself although to experience a once in a lifetime cold spell e.g. 63 would be great, it is not an expectation each year.  Rather a more modest ambition just to see some winter weather at all, and some of us did yesterday, longest continuous snowfall in my area that I can remember.  That already puts this winter above every one of the last 6 apart from last year!  With the month or a bit more remaining, I hope that those who missed out get their snow fix, before our thoughts turn to summer.  Plenty time left.

I would agree Mike, a highly variable Winter so far but some locations such as yours have been very lucky, reminds me somewhat of December 2017 where the Midlands got very lucky but elsewhere the amounts of snow recieved were highly variable. If we are to get widespread snowfall such as during the BFTE then we likely need something more sustained in terms of cold and at the moment we are not seeing that.

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Obviously people in the SW are now going to rate this winter as epic due to yesterday’s snow, but it was a fairly localised event and on the whole it’s been pretty poor country wise thus far.

Not seeing anything too exciting in the offing for the next couple of weeks sadly. Wet and windy order of the day. 

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50 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Does anyone know if NOAA is up and running to produce weekly anomoly charts for this year thus far ?? Would be good to see what they show and compare to the ec46 forecasts 

Says its available upto 31st Jan, however it also says PSD data and products may not all be available or up-to-date. We appreciate your patience while we work to restore products as soon as possible.

.https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/data/composites/day/

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3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I'm going to give this model-watching malarkey a wee rest and do something a little less stressful...I might just follow the England-Windies test match instead...? Rugby??

Either way Ed, Britain's chance of hitting the jackpot still gonna be about the same, one minute it's all gonna be looking good, the next........ Oh well 

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We had a good 6 or 7 inches here  yesterday, I reckon most of it will be gone by Monday ish.  From a selfish point of view even though I've enjoyed it , I really need to get back to work now and earn a few bob. This weather aint a lot of good if you  are in the Building trade.

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Lurking around here over the winter as I do waiting to hit the jackpot, I find myself very disappointed in yet another winters offering. From what I can see now its going to take a major shift in models to bring anything significant before we start looking for some warmth in March.

 

 

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Just now, Frosty. said:

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean @ day 10..from a cold perspective it's about as good as England's batting!!?:gathering:

EDM0-240.GIF

EDM1-240.GIF

You mean the potential is there but the execution is suicidal?

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1 hour ago, Leon1 said:

You can't really say it was the worst cold spell because you didn't have snow. Loads of the south got the most snowfall since February 2009 which is a great cold spell even if it didn't snow everywhere. This isn't meant to come off sounding passive aggressive either but I mean, come on! It has been an amazing cold spell but only in some parts ? 

 

rubbish in Brum. not 1 dusting all winter so far. Bet we do in March though!

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23 minutes ago, HighPressure said:

Lurking around here over the winter as I do waiting to hit the jackpot, I find myself very disappointed in yet another winters offering. From what I can see now its going to take a major shift in models to bring anything significant before we start looking for some warmth in March.

 

 

The models have been doing major shifts all winter, but they can't 'bring' weather if it's not meant to be.

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1 hour ago, Leon1 said:

You can't really say it was the worst cold spell because you didn't have snow. Loads of the south got the most snowfall since February 2009 which is a great cold spell even if it didn't snow everywhere. This isn't meant to come off sounding passive aggressive either but I mean, come on! It has been an amazing cold spell but only in some parts ? 

 

  for the south this might of been a good cold spell but for the rest of us this was the crappest cold  spell and looking at the model there is nothing on offer  suggesting  we will return to something cold sustained long-turm at the moment  so yes this has been a crap cold spell for most of us.

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As I posted several weeks ago, the 46 generally pointed to the high heights to our nw and low heights to our se feb from  the 20th jan. prior to that it had one of these elements unconvincing or the troughing a little too far north 

this is a typical ec46 chart for the last week of January 

C378083B-0BD5-47B2-AB4C-43FF4455B614.thumb.jpeg.e99f6283c084c1981d0a10b0bfeb9636.jpeg

and this is the composite for that period 

8273227B-9FAF-4C4E-8491-D59B5F072982.thumb.jpeg.5fa99941138f4935ac86eaff2feed681.jpeg

not bad from that range. What is obvious for the Atlantic sector is that for January as a whole, the 46 has been a little too keen to show Greenland anomolys but it never showed them to be particularly high so I suspect our enthusiasm is as much to blame for over egging the pudding as the modelling for letting us down. We have fallen on the not quite side of what it showed whereas most interpreted the charts as being on the bit more than side of what they showed.

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16 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

  for the south this might of been a good cold spell but for the rest of us this was the crappest cold  spell and looking at the model there is nothing on offer  suggesting  we will return to something cold sustained long-turm at the moment  so yes this has been a crap cold spell for most of us.

 

24 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

rubbish in Brum. not 1 dusting all winter so far. Bet we do in March though!

It's just very rare to get snow in the south that's all. I'm surprised you haven't even got a dusting yet though we have and even that was rare.

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Many take heed of the thoughts of the Long Ranger on here,his sidekick Tonto rarely gets a hearing until now....his 30 dayer as follows...me want heap big Beast From East Kemosabe....never know lol

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Quiet tonight,seems most are believing what's showing beyond 5 days as gospel which is far from reality, trust me there's still a lot of winter left to go,when have we ever seen a wall to wall cold spell lasting more than the last week not many,the cold will be back ,as the days lengthen so the cold strength en 

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