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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    I think we just have to get over the fact now that we are not going to see a beast or any other special snow making synoptic pop up at 240, never mind 144, so we are looking in the D13-15 timeframe so although some will question the relevance of doing this, realistically that is the only place a cold spell is going to come from.

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    1 hour ago, Tristrame said:

    Tbh,they haven't a clue

    Forecasts from met services  beyond 7 days are a waste of time due to being right as often as the proverbial stopped clock

    Learned this year that less is known about strat influence than ever and less still about other teleconnections 

    Certainly not enough for forecasts

    Even Roger Smith's seasonal forecast depended on winds from the north or east and MUCH colder than this last week

    Its not going to happen as planned but of course could still in the wasteland dregs of winter

    So yeah a lot of dishwashing I think

    Back to science and 7 days out only we go (or anyone with sense goes and I don't mean disrespect there because I'll still look too)

     

    I was in Belfast last January. Snow closed airport. I thought this might be tail end of winter. Two Months later, the beast hit the South coast

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

    GEFS out to Feb 18th says make the most of what's left of this cold snap

    gfs-ens_T2maMean_eu_1.thumb.png.9e5134fdae55e1f4881b598e0263f9d3.pnggfs-ens_T2maMean_eu_4.thumb.png.28c6ee69adf37e18be2d62e944abcbbb.png
    gfs-ens_T2maMean_eu_6.thumb.png.ce41e790e59a6594fc1859a25c34bdf3.pnggfs-ens_T2maMean_eu_8.thumb.png.dc2ff6f9868e3b3e5a02f57f9a8f6a5b.png

    gfs-ens_T2maMean_eu_10.thumb.png.819d618dc3dc51e604e75a5b54bd4daa.pnggfs-ens_T2maMean_eu_12.thumb.png.4145f80b12537b24065c46a60dc51d8f.png

    Thanks Summer Sun, now I'm really depressed ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    1 minute ago, Summer Sun said:

    GEFS out to Feb 18th says make the most of what's left of this cold snap

    gfs-ens_T2maMean_eu_1.thumb.png.9e5134fdae55e1f4881b598e0263f9d3.pnggfs-ens_T2maMean_eu_4.thumb.png.28c6ee69adf37e18be2d62e944abcbbb.png
    gfs-ens_T2maMean_eu_6.thumb.png.ce41e790e59a6594fc1859a25c34bdf3.pnggfs-ens_T2maMean_eu_8.thumb.png.dc2ff6f9868e3b3e5a02f57f9a8f6a5b.png

    gfs-ens_T2maMean_eu_10.thumb.png.819d618dc3dc51e604e75a5b54bd4daa.pnggfs-ens_T2maMean_eu_12.thumb.png.4145f80b12537b24065c46a60dc51d8f.png

    And to think a few weeks ago, we were supposed to be going into a sustained period of northern blocking now! ? Shouldn't be moaning too much as I still have a good snow cover from yesterday.  However, I'm one of the luckier ones, with others not getting much out of this cold spell.

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    At least there's a ridge building over Newfoundland...

    image.thumb.png.fdb2ced39e406e71b4f164366ea6cb6c.png

    Just trying to polish a ??

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Agree with all comments so far, ECM T240:

    image.thumb.jpg.465326c4864d95263dcd081e64553837.jpg

    Anyone putting a positive spin on that one is not so much polishing a turd, but encasing it in glass, and putting it on a marble plinth in its own display cabinet!

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, johnholmes said:

    Perhaps the SSW has already 'been'. Deep cold with the very marked trough over Europe from early in January. Intense cold in parts of US and Canada.

    SSW's do not guarantee deep long lasting cold for this tiny island.

    No at all sure of the statistics but I would suggest no more than 1 in 3 have the effect most on here wish for.

     

    They have mainly worked in our favour since 2009 though, although their frequency has been down since the turn of the decade.

    Mind you i am not sure what is so funny about your comment though!

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire

    I think the first few days of February 1998 started on a cold note?  I'm horrified to see the charts perhaps showing a similar pattern for around mid-month.  Although, I gave up on the prospects of a notably cold February, I hoped it would be similar to the second half of January, with cold shots and the potential for short lived snow events.  However, even that looks way too optimistic at the moment! ☹️

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    Posted
  • Location: Durham
  • Location: Durham
    10 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

    Perhaps the SSW has already 'been'. Deep cold with the very marked trough over Europe from early in January. Intense cold in parts of US and Canada.

    SSW's do not guarantee deep long lasting cold for this tiny island.

    No at all sure of the statistics but I would suggest no more than 1 in 3 have the effect most on here wish for.

     

    A very realistic view. Despite the over optimistic views of some people.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    31 minutes ago, Don said:

    I think the first few days of February 1998 started on a cold note?  I'm horrified to see the charts perhaps showing a similar pattern for around mid-month.  Although, I gave up on the prospects of a notably cold February, I hoped it would be similar to the second half of January, with cold shots and the potential for short lived snow events.  However, even that looks way too optimistic at the moment! ☹️

    Bit premature to be pinning hopes on charts 2 weeks away, then even if these charts were showing cold nirvana most folk would be saying its in FI, no chance of it verifying!! Amazing when they show mild dross, most folk take it as set in stone. Personally I would give it till last 3rd of Feb, even the met still seeing a signal for that backend of month, if we are all gonna give on the 2nd of Feb, we may as well call it a day and stop posting till next December, and even then if it starts mild quite a few will be saying..... Here we go again.. WINTER IS Over! ?

    Edited by Mattwolves
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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
    3 minutes ago, Disco_Stu said:

    A very realistic view. Despite the over optimistic views of some people.

    Which could also be argued as a very simplistic view......the nature of this type of science is, no one really knows for sure

    Edited by Rambo
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    Posted
  • Location: Boston Spa
  • Location: Boston Spa
    2 minutes ago, Disco_Stu said:

    A very realistic view. Despite the over optimistic views of some people.

    In a hunt for cold thread are people not allowed to be overly optimistic then?? (likey likey Summer Sun??)

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

    The Berlin charts are pretty conclusive in showing a neg flow in the trop  between 60/70N next ten days ........ that’s what we were expecting....it just isn’t translating into cold for the Atlantic sector ........for the time being we are unlucky ......the script says that this reverse flow will probably pull back for a spell and then a further wave arrives .....could we get the luck next time ???

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    Bit premature to be pinning hopes on charts 2 weeks away, the.even if these charts were showing cold nirvana most folk would be saying its in FI, no chance of it verifying!! Amazing when they show mild dross, most folk take it as set in stone. Personally I wouldn't give in till last 3rd of Feb, even the met still seeing a signal for that backend of month, if we are all gonna give on the 2nd of Feb, we may as well call it a day and stop posting till next December, and even then if it starts mild quite a few will be saying..... Here we go again.. WINTER IS Over! ?

    True, but the problem is, it will be sod's law that when the models show mild in FI, they will verify.  Not giving up on February, just don't like the current charts. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
  • Location: Leigh-on-Sea
    3 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    Bit premature to be pinning hopes on charts 2 weeks away, the.even if these charts were showing cold nirvana most folk would be saying its in FI, no chance of it verifying!! Amazing when they show mild dross, most folk take it as set in stone. Personally I wouldn't give in till last 3rd of Feb, even the met still seeing a signal for that backend of month, if we are all gonna give on the 2nd of Feb, we may as well call it a day and stop posting till next December, and even then if it starts mild quite a few will be saying..... Here we go again.. WINTER IS Over! ?

    It is funny isn't it. Winter was over back in December from what some people were saying, and here we are just over half way through winter (the more recent UK winter time frame), and winters over again.

    Whatever people's views, and whether the models stick to their guns, or flip back and forth, no one can say winter is over until march surely lol

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    2 minutes ago, Don said:

    True, but the problem is, it will be sod's law that when the models show mild in FI, they will verify.  Not giving up on February, just don't like the current charts. 

    I'll drink to that Don, and like bluearmy is pointing out, there is still potentially another shot lining up 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    4 minutes ago, Always a red said:

    In a hunt for cold thread are people not allowed to be overly optimistic then?? (likey likey Summer Sun??)

    Summer Sun likes wind. rain and flooding, wants a repeat of winter 13-14, anyone mentions Feb '98 or Feb '09, he won't 'like' it

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    7 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    Summer Sun likes wind. rain and flooding, wants a repeat of winter 13-14, anyone mentions Feb '98 or Feb '09, he won't 'like' it

    You really dont like poor summer sun !

    Anyway, as Blue says,we are not enjoying much luck at the moment, perhaps that will change at short notice..

    At the moment NWP is grim viewing tho.

     

     

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

    You really dont like poor summer sun !

    Anyway, as Blue says,we are not enjoying much luck at the moment, perhaps that will change at short notice..

    At the moment NWP is grim viewing tho.

     

     

    Actually I do, hope we get another summer like last year, this time though far as now goes, this was worst cold spell in history, don't mind the mild for now, just hope later in Feb, we get a proper cold shot, say after holidays 25th

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    Posted
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
  • Location: Ludgershall, Wiltshire
    12 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    Summer Sun likes wind. rain and flooding, wants a repeat of winter 13-14, anyone mentions Feb '98 or Feb '09, he won't 'like' it

    Surely he would like a Feb 98?

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    Posted
  • Location: Bath
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and snowy winters, hot and sunny summers with thunderstorms!
  • Location: Bath
    4 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    Actually I do, hope we get another summer like last year, this time though far as now goes, this was worst cold spell in history, don't mind the mild for now, just hope later in Feb, we get a proper cold shot, say after holidays 25th

    You can't really say it was the worst cold spell because you didn't have snow. Loads of the south got the most snowfall since February 2009 which is a great cold spell even if it didn't snow everywhere. This isn't meant to come off sounding passive aggressive either but I mean, come on! It has been an amazing cold spell but only in some parts ? 

     

    Edited by Leon1
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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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