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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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3 minutes ago, Kev smith scfc said:

IC don't lose faith it's going to happen,the first attempt was flawed because no back up from Mother Nature,but the second attempt at end of Jan / beginning of February will succeed because the birds are going into panic mode looking for food.

Also going to make a big statement we better get use to ssw events because they will become more frequent as the planet warms up ( but more research needed on this one) so as the planet warms we will get colder winters.

Let’s hope so Kev really want this to come off but I’ve just lost faith . I mean look at this ECM mean 00z Friday . It’s the nuts . 8D26FD1F-EC41-41F5-B549-CAD5994FD2E7.thumb.png.077c8a4f4954aac181e041edde4bd83d.png

We all said rock solid and it was and look what happened 😞. So the day 10 means are looking great again but not as great as that and if it can go wrong at t144 what chance do we stand at day 10+ . Maybe are be more positive tomorrow. I feel a bit of a sado being so annoyed but I just love freezing snowy weather . 🙂

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Let’s hope so Kev really want this to come off but I’ve just lost faith . I mean look at this ECM mean 00z Friday . It’s the nuts . 8D26FD1F-EC41-41F5-B549-CAD5994FD2E7.thumb.png.077c8a4f4954aac181e041edde4bd83d.png

We all said rock solid and it was and look what happened 😞. So the day 10 means are looking great again but not as great as that and if it can go wrong at t144 what chance do we stand at day 10+ . Maybe are be more positive tomorrow. I feel a bit of a sado being so annoyed but I just love freezing snowy weather . 🙂

Just because a cold pattern has failed to come off so far doesn’t mean it is always will. Otherwise we would never seen cold weather!

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Let’s hope so Kev really want this to come off but I’ve just lost faith . I mean look at this ECM mean 00z Friday . It’s the nuts . 8D26FD1F-EC41-41F5-B549-CAD5994FD2E7.thumb.png.077c8a4f4954aac181e041edde4bd83d.png

We all said rock solid and it was and look what happened 😞. So the day 10 means are looking great again but not as great as that and if it can go wrong at t144 what chance do we stand at day 10+ . Maybe are be more positive tomorrow. I feel a bit of a sado being so annoyed but I just love freezing snowy weather . 🙂

IC all I can say is I've been watching the weather for 60 years and models flip but Mother Nature never flips,bring back winters in my youth in the staffordshire moorlands  ( Brutal ) lol

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3 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Just because a cold pattern has failed to come off so far doesn’t mean it is always will. Otherwise we would never seen cold weather!

I know that Matt 🙂. It was so close tho lol . And I do love a potent easterly. There will 100% be a few more chances , let’s hope we take the first chance 👍

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54 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

Sorry Joggs but if it wasn't,t for those Diddley squat background signals you wouldn't,t have the jet on a nw/se track and you,d be staring mild southwesterlies in the face for the next month

Proof of that please?

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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

I know that Matt 🙂. It was so close tho lol . And I do love a potent easterly. There will 100% be a few more chances , let’s hope we take the first chance 👍

Certainly hope so. It has been a long and frustrating winter but we still have time on our side and plenty of potential (I’ll probably get lynched for posting that word!).

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The models can make fools of us all.

For me the models will indicate where we are heading as best they are able. I enjoy reading interpretations of what the models say from many people I would regard as experts on here, even though they, like the models themselves, do not always prove to be accurate. To know of SSWs as well is very useful, but my experience is they bend the jet stream in way that don't always benefit us and will for a time increase Shannon Entrophy in the modelling.

It can be frustrating as it has been recently. But I enjoy the fact that our weather is so unpredictable. Sure, it can lead to disappointment. But it can also produce, at short notice, joy from a despondent outlook. Long may it continue to do so...

 

Edited by Paul
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48 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

not the best location, but Feb and Mar are the coldest/more likely for E'ly months, January is rarely cold in the south post '98 or so

and easter - more likely to snow statistically than xmas - so we are now approaching the primary zone when the uk can have it's heaviest and most potent of cold & snow spells - just you wait and see - it's coming

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54 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

How many times will this so called joke be posted🤔

Until the Twelfth of Never minus  48 hours?

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47 minutes ago, Kev smith scfc said:

 

Also going to make a big statement we better get use to ssw events because they will become more frequent as the planet warms up ( but more research needed on this one) so as the planet warms we will get colder winters.

I’m really interested in that last sentence. Could you or anyone else shed more light on this? 

I asked about this on the old thread where you weren’t allowed anything other than serious model chat but it was (appropriately) moved to the “learning” section and not be answered as far as I can see... 

However the opportunity to catch all the experts contributing to this thread is too good to ignore.

Structurally are we going to see more cold winters long term? Is the AMOC/Gulf Stream weakening by 15% real and is that  key driver of the Atlantic influence on our weather? 

I’d be really interested in this to know if my kids are going to see snowy winters as they grow up. We moved to the Pennines (300m elevation) largely because I love snow so much and wanted some harshness in winter. 

Thanks in advance and would love people’s thoughts...

 

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Its amazing how much of an outlier the ecm is at just days 3 and 4!!!

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20 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Nope - that isn't what I would ask because an answer sits already within your first sentence. If you don't know anything about the background signals that are regularly discussed then it might be as well not to risk suggesting they are a waste of time. Dark Arts - no. If it was dark arts then we wouldn't even have NWP because science wouldn't apply either. 

There are a lot of helpful guides on this site, and a number of places you could go to begin growing an understanding of what drives the atmosphere, and then your contributions would be more useful. Either you are genuinely interested in what is going on and are frustrated and not being able to explain/understand the processes, or you are here to act as a deliberate lightning conductor for the frustrations that some are feeling right now - and that is an approach which is unhelpful. Whichever it is it seems a huge waste of time, because non-engagement with the processes means intellectual stagnation or attempting to magnify forum frustration means marginalisation from the real debate. Neither approach will take you anywhere.

 

Catacol hope I got this statement correct , ssw come in 2 different styles a ssw or a dsw the difference between the 2 is that a ssw can influence the strop in 9 days where as a dsw can take upto 4 weeks to influence the strop,thus was a dsw why we are waiting a long time for its effects to be felt,please feel free to correct me on any of this ,

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23 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Nope - that isn't what I would ask because an answer sits already within your first sentence. If you don't know anything about the background signals that are regularly discussed then it might be as well not to risk suggesting they are a waste of time. Dark Arts - no. If it was dark arts then we wouldn't even have NWP because science wouldn't apply either. 

There are a lot of helpful guides on this site, and a number of places you could go to begin growing an understanding of what drives the atmosphere, and then your contributions would be more useful. Either you are genuinely interested in what is going on and are frustrated and not being able to explain/understand the processes, or you are here to act as a deliberate lightning conductor for the frustrations that some are feeling right now - and that is an approach which is unhelpful. Whichever it is it seems a huge waste of time, because non-engagement with the processes means intellectual stagnation or attempting to magnify forum frustration means marginalisation from the real debate. Neither approach will take you anywhere.

 

I wouldn't waste your breath Catacol!

This week's (potent and snowy) Easterly may have gone down the swanny but I am still very confident of a very cold end to Winter.

This time next week we could well be staring down the barrel.....

Eyes down for the pub runs!

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7 minutes ago, shaky said:

Its amazing how much of an outlier the ecm is at just days 3 and 4!!!

Uncertainty reigns supreme, sliders are notoriously difficult to pin down. 

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2 minutes ago, Kev smith scfc said:

Catacol hope I got this statement correct , ssw come in 2 different styles a ssw or a dsw the difference between the 2 is that a ssw can influence the strop in 9 days where as a dsw can take upto 4 weeks to influence the strop,thus was a dsw why we are waiting a long time for its effects to be felt,please feel free to correct me on any of this ,

It's a "trop" for a start. Sorry if that sounds smartass. It's short for troposphere.

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13 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:


If you've just logged on, I recommend listening to this while reading the last few pages. (Trust me)

Guaranteed to cheer one up no end! 😂

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Evening all ,hope you had a good weekend, the AO looks as good as last night which is good news for possible blocking and good old joe bastardi is for casting brutal cold for us and the USA by the end of the month,the charts have moved back to belts of northerly s coming  in the next 7 days there after who knows cos the models keep changing beyond 7 but tonight all farely good in the valley tonight 

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32 minutes ago, joggs said:

Proof of that please?

The current phase of the MJO and stage of SSW favours mid Atlantic high and nw/se tracking jet that we have at the moment this would not be in place otherwise. The base climatology for any UK winter is majority southwesterlies /westerlies unless other background forcings change the situation.

The average west to east energy is normally to strong unless other influences force the jet to buckle sufficiently in our favour.

Edited by Broadmayne blizzard
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3 minutes ago, Kev smith scfc said:

Catacol hope I got this statement correct , ssw come in 2 different styles a ssw or a dsw the difference between the 2 is that a ssw can influence the strop in 9 days where as a dsw can take upto 4 weeks to influence the strop,thus was a dsw why we are waiting a long time for its effects to be felt,please feel free to correct me on any of this ,

Saw your post and did a Google, found this. It is very interesting (although stand corrected if I have found some duff info out in the Net 😊).

https://www.33andrain.com/topic/1482-sudden-stratospheric-warmings-–-developing-a-new-classification-based-on-vertical-depth-applying-theory-to-a-ssw-in-2018-and-assessing-predictability-of-a-cold-air-outbreak-following-this-ssw/

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