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Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
    2 minutes ago, Snowycat said:

      As @knocker says there is so much information to learn from this winter, the background signals etc that did or didn't come together favourably for the UK and all these variables will absolutely add to the body of knowledge for the future.  

    I agree with the rest of your post. However my argument with the above is if we struggle to use the signals to make a forecast then how can we be sure we are correct in analysing how it went wrong. For example even last years beast from the east seems to cause some debate whether it was caused by the SSW or MJO or both? Even when I look back at the incredible Greenland High during Dec 2009,2010 I am not sure what allowed such blocking for Dec.

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    For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

    Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

    Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20

    Medium-term and seasonal forecasting has come a long way.  Yes, there is still a long way to go and for now and maybe for the foreseeable,  these forecasts will be probabilistic but to say these forecasts should be dismissed out of hand is rather Luddite in thinking.  

    The current NWP (remember NWP is not the panacea in the medium term too) has most likely over-reacted to the strength of the westerly signal.  Expect that to be pared back over the next few days.

    Edited by mulzy
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    Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
    4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

    Medium-term and seasonal forecasting has come a long way.  Yes, there is still a long way to go and for now and maybe for the foreseeable,  these forecasts will be probabilistic but to say these forecasts should be dismissed out of hand is rather Luddite in thinking.  

    The current NWP (remember NWP is not the panacea in the medium term too) has most likely over-reacted to the strength of the westerly signal.  Expect that to be pared back over the next few days.

    6z GFS already much different at day 6.

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    Posted
  • Location: .
  • Location: .
    45 minutes ago, Supacell said:

    March 18th last year ... just saying ?20180318_070710.thumb.jpg.1fc03de373e415c72735d91286190d37.jpg

    20180318_084300.thumb.jpg.9b1e00bf2ef2d53430dd516653f730fc.jpg

    Yes indeed. We might have a short 'first sign of spring' phase but that can just as readily be followed by 'heck it's still winter' right through March and even into April. In fact some of the heaviest falls I've seen have been in March. Last March in Exeter was an epic snowfall.

    Edited by West is Best
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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    8 minutes ago, Rascals Revenge said:

    It is Groundhog day today. I wonder what Punxsutawney Phil will say later.

    Looking at the output so far today..he won't see his shadow..:whistling:

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    Posted
  • Location: Poole, BH14
  • Location: Poole, BH14
    40 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    I'm quite simply baffled by the current model output with weather being modelled the opposite of what I feel should be occurring. 

    All very strange.

     

    Totally agree something is having a major influence over our weather going against alot of background signals. I'm wondering if the EARTH'S magnetic North Pole that is dramatically shifting by as much as 30 miles per year is actually having an influence in all this? Even in January there was an emergency gps update. Has there been any study in the earth magnetic field during extreme weather events in the past? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Orebro, Sweden
  • Weather Preferences: Summer time: 26-29 degrees and partly cloudy. Winter time: -4 to -7 and sun
  • Location: Orebro, Sweden
    41 minutes ago, Supacell said:

    The hottest day ever recorded in the UK occurred in August ?

    What's your point? It's just a record while i talk about most hottest days for an average year and it's not august. And march is neither normally the coldest winter month even if last winters has been different

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    Posted
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey , Hale Gtr Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: clear skies , hard frost , snow !
  • Location: London City ,Cobham Surrey , Hale Gtr Manchester
    Just now, West is Best said:

    Yes indeed. We might have a short 'first sign of spring' phase but that can just as readily be followed by 'heck it's still winter' right through March and even into April. In fact some of the heaviest falls I've seen have been in March.

    Totally agree I think we will have a bit of a faux spring period in the next week or so then maybe one short sharp last blast of winter by the end of Feb? 

     

    As for the amateurs who do the long range forecasts much kudos for doing them , but we should be able to comment on them good or bad - if they had been correct the plaudits would have rightly been going to them but the opposite holds also? 

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    Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
    8 minutes ago, Drifter said:

    6z GFS already much different at day 6.

    Good, bad or ugly??

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    Posted
  • Location: Wokingham
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny summers and snowy winters
  • Location: Wokingham

    if the weather in this country was predictable this forum wouldn't exist in the way it does now....

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    Posted
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
  • Location: Horley, near Gatwick
    12 hours ago, Devonshire said:

    In the meantime, get braced for some very cold winters after the next solar cycle...

     

    That’s the mother of ‘day ten’ potential ???

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    43 minutes ago, WhiteFox said:

    The enquiring mind seeks to understand things like we have ended up with the pattern we have.

    The cynic seeks nothing but to ridicule everyone else. 

    I’d love to learn why things turned out like this. I think being cynical stems from so many disappointments. But ridicule - don’t see any of that - not from me anyway. I actually said that I enjoy reading posts from the more enthusiastic cold posters.

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    6z gfs following the 0z . generally west to east jet so all in all standard set up and temps altho above average 

    Edited by swfc
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Oh dear! The long-feared return of Old Man Bartlett?

    image.thumb.png.db4246e8213fdd954b416e435275d3ac.png

    Welcome back, Old Chap...You miserable old git!:help:

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    Posted
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Burwell, Cambridgeshire
    20 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

    What's your point? It's just a record while i talk about most hottest days for an average year and it's not august. And march is neither normally the coldest winter month even if last winters has been different

    Average July CET 16.6

    Average August CET 16.3

    So hopefully nonsense about it's not possible to be hot in August / cold in February can be laid to rest?

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    Posted
  • Location: Northiam, East Sussex, 70m asl
  • Weather Preferences: snow,thunder,tornados
  • Location: Northiam, East Sussex, 70m asl

    Ignore the models, they are luring you into a false sense of security, any day now, they will flip, showing charts akin to the day after tomorrow, and 3hrs later, bruce willis will appear in snowmegeddon

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    Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
    16 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

    What's your point? It's just a record while i talk about most hottest days for an average year and it's not august. And march is neither normally the coldest winter month even if last winters has been different

    Although I do not want to derail the thread, my point is that it is absurd to write off winter at the beginning of Feb and likewise to assume summer is over at the beginning of August, although I am aware some choose to. The sun is getting lower in the sky by August as compared to June but on average August is warmer than June in the UK.

    20190202_104609.thumb.jpg.1d13453b0db64620c07a66ed9671fbfe.jpg

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Irlam
  • Location: Irlam
    1 hour ago, kold weather said:

     

    At the moment I'm getting a distinctive Feb 1998 feeling from the models. I suspect it won't look anywhere near that bad 

    February 1998 was a pretty decent month it has to be said, IMO, at least away from western Scotland. Yes it was excepionally mild but it was very dry overall and there were a couple absolutely gorgeous gentle sunny days. If you can't get the snow and cold, I would rather have that than another February 1997 and 2014.

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    Posted
  • Location: Orebro, Sweden
  • Weather Preferences: Summer time: 26-29 degrees and partly cloudy. Winter time: -4 to -7 and sun
  • Location: Orebro, Sweden
    1 minute ago, BurwellWeatherWatch said:

    Average July CET 16.6

    Average August CET 16.3

    So hopefully nonsense about it's not possible to be hot in August / cold in February can be laid to rest?

    Here it differs 2,5 degrees average high temperature between July and august and i did not mention about february but march. You are grasping at straws here 

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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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