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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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2 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

The EPS are poor upto day ten . Just a few stragglers avoid the mild bloodbath .

After day ten more spread but it’s pretty standard to get a few colder solutions at that range given the amount of ensembles .

Having said this I have little time for ensembles past day ten so I’m going into a denial bubble ! 

 

I have a lot more faith in them than i do ops at D10+

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9 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

And also, when they are an ensemble mean as well, they are never going to show blocking on a majority cluster in the truest sense (51%) at 15-46 days, so what actually is a 'good' signal?

You would need red blobs not pink blobs preferably red blobs that bright they would burn the Cornea out of your eye ball i think then northern blocking would be a cert.👀

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Morning.not much in this morning output to indicate anything really wintry ATM.Icoudnt really comment on long-range forcasts because I don't have the knowledge required but I do admire anyone having a go right or wrong come winters end.going forward for the rest of winter if no real cold and snow arrive I'd rather see very warm or mild from the south .dry and cold isn't for me give me warmth ete as an alternative.

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31 minutes ago, Team Jo said:

 Would you write off Summer in August?! No.

 

Well yes most people would and that is correct, the sun angle is getting lower fast for each day during august and any "real" warmth is unlikely. Most don't even want snow and cold in march since it's too late and out of season. Accept it

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41 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Yuk !

Some absolutely dire output this morning if you like cold .🤮

The models range from dire to super dire . Unless some miracle happens then after this weekend there’s at least a week of mild conditions .

So operation save winter commences for the second half of February ! 

 

Must admit, for those who like the cold and snow, the operational models are like something out of a scary movie this morning. 

I suppose, at best, a few odd cooler Polar Maritime flows following behind the Tropical Maritime South-Westerly flows looks possible at times.

Hopefully February will still be a month that delivers! Even if it means waiting a little. And that nothing goes wrong. 

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00z ECM is reasonably well-supported by its mean

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.650e4960598fed03e08aa25d93a96b84.png

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I always try to find the silver lining in the model output even when it is bleak, but right now I can't find much other than an attempt from the Pacific side of ridging. The output is truly dire for those wanting cold because they still haven't had any snow yet.

Might be time for a little break hopefully things look better in a week or so but time is running out and relying on March to deliver makes me feel a little uneasy.

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Despite some of the rantings about experts in the effects of SSW getting things wrong,and the usual M.O bashing,I would say the M.O long term outlook back in the first week of January was spot on.

Nowhere did they predict a 'beast from the East' or Northern blocking, despite model teases that we view here.

What they did say was a colder months end with an increased snow threat running into early February,with some milder interludes.

Spot on I would say.

As I am in a praising mood for the lads and lasses down at Exeter, I will skip over any problems with nowcasting yesterday's snowfall!

Moving on to what is in store,models seem keen on an Azores High coming on strong for the 12th onward, the times that sort of signal 10 days out is nailed during a British winter are too numerous to count! Just a shame the 10 day Northern blocking signals didn't have the same success rate this winter or winters past.

 

Edited by sunnijim
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Newbie!! Here.  i don't believe them to be gospel. Newbie doesn't equal no common sense. When they post i read them as we have more of a chance of proper cold

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CFS latest run is a corker.

image.thumb.png.d631ee5376c26da95f7f3be1b537a784.png

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It is worth mentioning that whilst looking bleak right now, these types of setups can quickly switch into northern blocking under the right circumstances.

At the moment I'm getting a distinctive Feb 1998 feeling from the models. I suspect it won't look anywhere near that bad when we get there but pretty obvious we are going to go through a spell of St least above average temperatures, possibly well above.

TEITS - there is blocking...just very much in the wrong place on the models this morning!

Edited by kold weather
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I have to admit as a lurker and long time reader of these forums, I am delighted that things look woeful.....it seems more often than not that when all seems lost, a couple of days later one of the models picks up a new signal and the hunt starts again. We have seen it time and time again....fingers crossed the next signal will be the one we're all looking for....in the meantime, enjoy the remnants of what we've had and hopefully come the new working week, things will look far more promising!

Edited by noonoo418
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Good point Kold (hi by the way). The UKMO gives a hint of what can happen with the (Bartlett) high sliding more into the Atlantic at the end of the run, which would potentially open up mid-Atlantic blocking and riiiiiiiiiiiight at the end of the GFS something similar.

But basically there's no real getting away from the fact that the models are suggesting the first signs of Spring.

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I'm quite simply baffled by the current model output with weather being modelled the opposite of what I feel should be occurring. 

All very strange.

 

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11 minutes ago, kold weather said:

It is worth mentioning that whilst looking bleak right now, these types of setups can quickly switch into northern blocking under the right circumstances.

At the moment I'm getting a distinctive Feb 1998 feeling from the models. I suspect it won't look anywhere near that bad when we get there but pretty obvious we are going to go through a spell of St least above average temperatures, possibly well above.

TEITS - there is blocking...just very much in the wrong place on the models this morning!

Yes but as you say in the wrong place. I do agree these set ups can quickly change as suggested by the 0Z GFS at +324. A S,ly can quickly become a N,ly.

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40 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

Well yes most people would and that is correct, the sun angle is getting lower fast for each day during august and any "real" warmth is unlikely. Most don't even want snow and cold in march since it's too late and out of season. Accept it

We don't get any real warmth in August? I'm sorry but I have to disagree with you. Unless you're calling "real warmth" 35c +

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10 hours ago, Catacol said:

I’m not convinced about early spring - while we have failed to get a reversed pattern we have seen cold air spill out of the arctic, and the jet overall has dropped further south. I don’t see a warm March - anticyclonic and grey would be my call given ongoing expectations that the Atlantic will gradually fade under SSW conditions.

Totally agree about North Atlantic rolling over the top. The odd thing is that it hasn’t actually been stormy. If we think back over the last few weeks we have had very little in the way of strong cyclonic activity.....and yet still we haven’t managed to get a block to pop i

Best argument out there to me has been the idea that the atmosphere has actually been very unstable and twitching in response to the interplay between a very warm polar stratosphere coupled with a very cold tropical stratosphere. Suggestion here is that, under very cold tropical strat conditions, the MJO loses its coherence and jumps around a lot....and that the speed of transfer between phases without any sustained holding in either 7, 8 or 1 has prevented the block from forming. We certainly have had some very swift MJO progression so maybe there is something in this explanation...and a twitchy atmosphere would create tropospheric vibration too insignificant to shift the whole pattern. Maybe.

I did also read earlier today the article linked by Butler to QBO research. Authors acknowledge a definite connection between QBO sign at 15 and 30hpa and NAO and AO tendency. We have been wQBO at those heights for a while, so there is a forcing we can grasp. I think we all knew going in to this winter that it was disappointing that the eQBO was on its way out, and back in early autumn some of us were posting hoping it would slow its progress. This fact we have been ignoring over the last month.

Anyway enough waffle - I am looking forward to seeing whether late winter brings any interesting variations. We should all know by now that the long range Met forecast isn’t worth toast and jam.... and twice in six years March has delivered more cold and snow than any of those same 6 Februarys.....so maybe we are seeing a pattern developing regarding the back end of winter in the current period. Cold and anticyclonic March wouldn’t need too many tweaks to become blocked and easterly.

And this EPS chart isn’t far off being interesting. Winter isn’t over yet

Thanks for the summary @Catacol. I know that the analysis has already begun on 33andrain so it'll be interesting to see what comes out.

Tamara's thoughts on the cold tropical stratosphere were also interesting. There has been an affect on the Atlantic profile as you mention: the treacle analogy srpings to mind. In most other winters with such a PV setup over Canada we would have seen a flat Atlantic pattern. What we have seen instead is systems ejecting and slowing down as they reach the eastern Atlantic. The cold pouring out of North America certainly seems set to produce a little more momentum this week, so yes a flatter and milder pattern, but I also think it unlikely that we will see a prolonged blowtorch through early spring. Of course, that now means that it is guaranteed!

I'd be very surprised if winter has finished with us, but until the PV lobe checks out of Hotel Canada we are unlikely to see sustained blocking. We may chase the odd thread the needle easterly at medium range, but such end of line easterlies are very difficult to land and can go wrong so easily.

But, as we see the PV wane naturally into February a more meridional pattern is likely at times. That will open the doors to some cold from north or east at times, albeit not necessarily prolonged.

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45 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

Well yes most people would and that is correct, the sun angle is getting lower fast for each day during august and any "real" warmth is unlikely. Most don't even want snow and cold in march since it's too late and out of season. Accept it

Lol, other than the UK's hottest day has occurred in August, and early aug normally peak of summer heat. But guess you were just on the wind up anyway!

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46 minutes ago, Faronstream said:

Well yes most people would and that is correct, the sun angle is getting lower fast for each day during august and any "real" warmth is unlikely. Most don't even want snow and cold in march since it's too late and out of season. Accept it

The hottest day ever recorded in the UK occurred in August 🤔

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On 22/01/2019 at 18:25, Decemberof2010 said:

  And if you just rotate your screen 10 degrees to the right the PV has become a squirrel 

Two general points ( sorry - unrelated to Dec2010 post but I cannot remove that link!)

1. Re the SSW, as far as I recall it's timing and extent was well modelled. Until the second week in January the ' better informed' posters were very clearly saying the outcome very much depended on where the polar vortex bucket spilled. Yes it spilled into USA ( as usual?) but that was not a certainty and many of us hoped that would not be the case. A useful point for analytical review later.

2.this weeks snow and cold have actually been well modelled for the South Coast - even the stalling centre of the low and associated circulation. It would quite frankly be ridiculous to expect the precise (+/- 50 miles) centre and drift of that centre to be better predicted than it was. Meto amber warnings are not issued casually and both their general location and severity were fully justified in my view.

On other such occasions the low has drifted even further South and missed the UK entirely.

Even the snow accumulation maps have been pretty good although localised variability has been notable - but  we use the term now casting for snow for good reason.

For once in a decade I enjoyed ace tobogganing in -1c temperatures yesterday ( near Blandford) and this morning the snow remains well frozen and for that I am grateful. The altitude there gives 2c advantage and helps in marginal conditions. By Dorset standards this amount of snowfall was a once in a decade event.

As for the outlook I am not giving up hope - some of our best snowfalls have come in the last week of February. The current week was forecast to be mild mush for the South from about two weeks ago if my memory serves me right yet the model outputs turned round almost overnight with about a week to go. Nothing to say this cannot  repeat.

 

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9 hours ago, Djdazzle said:

Been hearing that all winter. We may have to face facts that this winter will go against all the signals. Yes there is still time but the chances of getting another beast at the end of Feb for the second year running is remote.

What would be interesting is if Feb turned our to be the complete opposite of what the signals suggested. I for one would never believe them again.

The enquiring mind seeks to understand things like we have ended up with the pattern we have.

The cynic seeks nothing but to ridicule everyone else. 

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5 minutes ago, noonoo418 said:

it seems more often than not that when all seems lost, a couple of days later one of the models picks up a new signal and the hunt starts again. 

Yes, although the next week or so isn't look promising for cold, we've seen how quickly things can change either way - e.g. from a progged deep cold setup never materialising in Dec 2012 or earlier in Jan this year, to the unexpected extension of the cold in Jan 2013 - so not worth writing anything off after day 7 - 10, which still only just takes us past the first week in Feb.  The Atlantic systems aren't with us yet and the models could be overestimating the strength and / or longevity of the pattern. We've also seen how areas of low pressure have corrected south on the models closer to verification this season, like the system which brought the snow this week.  Worth keeping a watching eye out for changes if you like cold weather I think.

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