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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Not getting involved in the SSW debate , but what the longer range models have got wrong is there constant signal for Northern blocking , All the Wintry weather has been caused by the PV pulling down Colder uppers .

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I think most readers on here understand that some posters (Steve & Isobar etc) are cold biased as they are always in the hunt and not actually depicting what will likely happen. I don’t take anything they say literally.

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Where are the background signals/teleconnections/met outlook pointing towards cold this winter? Still a month left but it's been a bust in that regard thus far. Like the confidence was high for deep cold? Anyone LRF called this Winter correctly thus far? 

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The models have gone into zonal mode but that is very unlikely to happen. Not saying that the UK will get cold, but I am expecting a much more meridional flow after mid-month.

Lots of cold to mid-latitude and there will be areas with the ridges that are milder and we will have to see where the UK sits.

Again we are looking at a late trop response, where there had been the hope of mid-winter cold. As we see even now, snow can come and go quickly as we move through February and we will need a more stationary Rossby wave pattern for a long cold spell.

The next 7-10 days looks like there is an equalisation between the wave train out of the Pacific and the disruption of the Canadian PV, stalemate = flat. The models have had a day or more to come to an agreement on this so that looks likely. After that I expect more of a sub-tropical push and better charts.

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53 minutes ago, Stevie B said:

Time to admit defeat over a +10 day chart? F f s! 

Quite Stevie.

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26 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

Surely the likes of Tight Isobar and all those who solicited false hope re the long range teleconnections/ssw effects etc etc must be tucked away in a corner somewhere eating humble pie right now having seen some of the latest stomach churning FI charts..:help: Perhaps time to admit defeat eh 🤮 I’d challenge anyone to put a positive spin on this chart.

E0FFF0C4-A038-484E-B561-4957BD4899F9.jpeg

Day ten and they never verify, ecm was interesting at t 168 with the low pressure coming up against the Russian high, even if ecm blew it away, the reality could have been different, keep watching! 

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32 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

Surely the likes of Tight Isobar and all those who solicited false hope re the long range teleconnections/ssw effects etc etc must be tucked away in a corner somewhere eating humble pie right now having seen some of the latest stomach churning FI charts..:help: Perhaps time to admit defeat eh 🤮 I’d challenge anyone to put a positive spin on this chart.

E0FFF0C4-A038-484E-B561-4957BD4899F9.jpeg

errrm my positive spin is only 10 months to go before next winter, maybe it's a delayed SSW effect and we will feel the effects in November too

Edited by lassie23

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I’m not I’m not going to answer specific posters because I don’t want to appear antagonistic 

Here are the seven day means for the week up to yesterday and the week beginning yesterday 

426FC541-5E58-4BA2-9BC4-6DA371A7CE28.thumb.jpeg.6798a5e68420f0cae10cdbf452400b19.jpeg   47BEB176-A2B2-4395-876F-7522376A2B06.thumb.jpeg.4128a4bcaf179ebd21cd2abf099231e6.jpeg

Now to say that these show no northern high anomolys affecting our weather  is plain wrong 

what they also show is the mobility I have been banging on about .......catcol mentions twitchiness of the patterns and he maybe onto something .....  

what the 46 and other LR forecasts got right was euro troughing at the back end of jan and into feb. however, they persisted with that prediction and as we can see this is what’s falling apart over the next week or so. We still have high anoms to the north but the Azores ridge is sticking its nose in and preventing the jet continuing with its nw/se flow.  Evidently the deep cold outbreak upstream is responsible ........I suppose the depth of that cold couldn’t be seen by the modelling at range  and it’s quick onset and departure only helps to keep that mobility issue going 

DE5F0A01-B540-492B-8E53-67C9C52B3D0E.thumb.jpeg.2535b11256418c619ec5529ca474b608.jpeg

 

As for at Steve and tight isobar think of their predictions being a bust ..........you’ll have to ask them but I suspect they are too busy making snowmen in their gardens ! 

And as for January’s T2 anoms, feb wouldn’t have put their hands up for this at the end of December  ...

7F72015E-AA82-470C-B2AB-E5403562C28C.thumb.jpeg.cb398d7f8e1b5e40f92e575727ff99ac.jpeg

Edited by bluearmy

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22 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I don't think slagging off other posters is acceptable, the models are what they are and the outlook currently points to milder..but it's not the end of the  world!..last winter didn't even wake up until almost spring!

It was about 5th February when first sign of Beast showed on GFS. Was looking poor at the time.

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2 minutes ago, Climate Man said:

It was about 5th February when first sign of Beast showed on GFS. Was looking poor at the time.

Absolutely.......clear from Exeter’s 30 dayer that they have specific v cold outbreak windows showing on glosea but a lack of continuity,  support from ec46 clusters or glosea continuity on timings is causing them to be more pragmatic with their wording .

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Morning all ,this coming five days sees a return to a stronger atlantic as heights rise and move to our south ,our only hope is it doesn't last too long as there are hints of cold zonel not weekend again ,beyond that ,we'll let's face it all the model s could nt even get right where the sun rises and sets let alone weather charts beyond 5 days 

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I really think post-mortems should wait till 28th February.  The ext EPS while poor have been far from consistent.  Less of an Atlantic influence in this morning's set.  Clusters will be interesting - maybe a start of a trend to more settled conditions (yes mild initially then colder) - just don't know at the moment.

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2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

I really think post-mortems should wait till 28th February.  The ext EPS while poor have been far from consistent.  Less of an Atlantic influence in this morning's set.  Clusters will be interesting - maybe a start of a trend to more settled conditions (yes mild initially then colder) - just don't know at the moment.

If the euro high anom can be lost then they become more than interesting.........if it can’t then best we get is a mid lat high .......

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Just now, mulzy said:

I really think post-mortems should wait till 28th February.  The ext EPS while poor have been far from consistent.  Less of an Atlantic influence in this morning's set.  Clusters will be interesting - maybe a start of a trend to more settled conditions (yes mild initially then colder) - just don't know at the moment.

Point I was trying to make ,well said, according to the models mild takes over ,but with their track record this winter hopefully winter will be back next weekend

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5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

I really think post-mortems should wait till 28th February.  The ext EPS while poor have been far from consistent.  Less of an Atlantic influence in this morning's set.  Clusters will be interesting - maybe a start of a trend to more settled conditions (yes mild initially then colder) - just don't know at the moment.

Absolutely, I think we’ve still got realistically 6 good weeks of potentially wintry weather to look forward to, except next week of course 😭

i wouldn’t be surprised if we end up with a cold UK high in a week or so time and after that it’s anyones guess. 

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24 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

 

DE5F0A01-B540-492B-8E53-67C9C52B3D0E.thumb.jpeg.2535b11256418c619ec5529ca474b608.jpeg

 

 

The problem I have with pressure anomaly charts is that they look good but for a layperson, you can so easily misinterpret them. They signifiy where it is higher than and below than average against the norm for those locations, they don't necessarily mean they are high  and low pressures in those locations though. 

Edited by Weather-history

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Looks like a Positive NAO phase will develop during next week onwards, strongly zonal, a mixture of mild / cooler but more emphasis on mild..potential for a euro slug to drift north around mid feb..not what I was hoping for in the last month of this meteorological winter.

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4 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

The problem I have with pressure anomaly charts is that they look good but for a layperson, you can so easily misinterpret them. They signifiy where it is higher than and below than average against the norm for those locations, they don't necessarily mean they are high pressure and low pressures in those locations though. 

And also, when they are an ensemble mean as well, they are never going to show blocking on a majority cluster in the truest sense (51%) at 15-46 days, so what actually is a 'good' signal?

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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The EPS are poor upto day ten . Just a few stragglers avoid the mild bloodbath .

After day ten more spread but it’s pretty standard to get a few colder solutions at that range given the amount of ensembles .

Having said this I have little time for ensembles past day ten so I’m going into a denial bubble ! 

 

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Well I'm going to enjoy todays snow and cold and then have a break from model watching as there looks to be no good cold for a while from Monday.

Edited by Northumberland snowman

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