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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The uk ridge woudnt contain low uppers so that makes sense .........

Perhaps he means T2 temps?, although they didn't look terrible on the 0z graph to me, although looking at the D10 500mb mean, i could see SW winds for at least 2-3 days after that.

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7 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

Since when did earthquakes affect global climate, that's quite a seismic claim you are making there...and your claims about climate go against what 97% of the scientific community think... I know who I'd rather trust. However maybe the moon and earthquakes will make our winters great again!

Neither earthquake nor volcanic activity is increasing anyway.

I wonder what “lunar activity” is? 🤔

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4 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Neither earthquake nor volcanic activity is increasing anyway.

I wonder what “lunar activity” is? 🤔

It only take one 'unexpected' stray filament?🤓

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4 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

 

I wonder what “lunar activity” is? 🤔

It's werewolves. Their increasing activity is releasing more CO into the atmosphere... Like Dairy cattle, only slightly more vicious.

On topic, the pub run early doors, it's up to 78 and is increasing pressure to our north ever so slightly...

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18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Micro/macro 

they predicted this week brilliantly well from two weeks out re a euro upper trough headed in  from the nw 

So the amount of time HLB has been predicted is just people misreading the anomalies then?

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8 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

It's werewolves. Their increasing activity is releasing more CO into the atmosphere... Like Dairy cattle, only slightly more vicious.

On topic, the pub run early doors, it's up to 78 and is increasing pressure to our north ever so slightly...

Lycanthropic Global Warming, LGW, I presume...It used to be bad, but it's all right noooooooowwwww!

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120 on the pub run. Increasingly likely we see a link up between heights in Atlantic and the less deeper heights in Greenland here? Certainly more likely than it was on the 12z

 

Screenshot 2019-02-01 at 22.07.38.png

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15 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

So the amount of time HLB has been predicted is just people misreading the anomalies then?

To a degree - yes. Greenland for example is usually with low heights during winter. How big a high anomoly is required to actually see blocking up there ??   The assumption is that if the mean shows a high anomoly them come verification, that anomoly will be much higher ......not always the case though ......

i made a post earlier re ‘mobile anomolys’ which has also been an issue this winter 

but when the review is over, the Canadian vortex will be seen as being the destroyer of what might have been....

although i’m not sure what your original post had to do with mine that you quoted .....

Edited by bluearmy
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4 hours ago, Timer said:
4 hours ago, Catacol said:

2 things I don’t want to do now - firstly to suggest that winter is over now (my more pessimistic recent posts have been guilty of that) and secondly to ignite a debate on AGW.

But ...

Great post!

for goodness sake, get a grip the two of you. Yes, there are fluctuations and variability in climate - always have been and always will be (remember a few years back we were told our children would never see snow?!). If AGW is to blame, how do you explain recent climate change on other planets in the solar system?!

The climate IS changing - better look at the decay of our magnetosphere and simultaneous upcoming grand solar minimum. Human pollution and environmental destruction is bad, and needs to stop - but there are other, bigger things going on with the climate.

In the meantime, get braced for some very cold winters after the next solar cycle...

 

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So 120, 126 and 132 look like it's going to link up heights, but doesn't quite make it as the large lows link up. It has however, piqued my interest and I will be back to look at the 00z's in the morning. Subtle differences early doors just before FI can have big implications. 

I'm not giving up hope yet!

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3 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

for goodness sake, get a grip the two of you. Yes, there are fluctuations and variability in climate - always have been and always will be (remember a few years back we were told our children would never see snow?!). If AGW is to blame, how do you explain recent climate change on other planets in the solar system?!

The climate IS changing - better look at the decay of our magnetosphere and simultaneous upcoming grand solar minimum. Human pollution and environmental destruction is bad, and needs to stop - but there are other, bigger things going on with the climate.

In the meantime, get braced for some very cold winters after the next solar cycle...

 

Oh dear this forum is going a bit wayward this evening, so many deniers lurking around? Things sounding a bit desperate this evening as we are now talking about other planets! Where is your evidence to back the statement you made? People seem to be forgetting CO2 is a greenhouse gas which traps in more of the solar radiation which enters our planets atmosphere, it's basic physics really...., just look at Venus...

 

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3 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

That was from a volcanic eruption... not an earthquake...

Edit: beat me to it Rochey 😁😂🤣

Edited by Quicksilver1989
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5 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

for goodness sake, get a grip the two of you. Yes, there are fluctuations and variability in climate - always have been and always will be (remember a few years back we were told our children would never see snow?!). If AGW is to blame, how do you explain recent climate change on other planets in the solar system?!

The climate IS changing - better look at the decay of our magnetosphere and simultaneous upcoming grand solar minimum. Human pollution and environmental destruction is bad, and needs to stop - but there are other, bigger things going on with the climate.

In the meantime, get braced for some very cold winters after the next solar cycle...

 

Just giving my views - why is this forum so confrontational - I have a very firm grip thank you!

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1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

That was from a volcanic eruption... not an earthquake...

 

1 minute ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

Since when is a volcanic eruption the same as an earthquake? 

 

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Is that not a volcanic eruption 🌋 

Is there an echo in here...

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*Enters model thread*

Sees talk of earthquakes volcanoes global warming and climate on other planets and still no model discussion.

*Leaves model thread*  🤣

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2 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

*Enters model thread*

Sees talk of earthquakes volcanoes global warming and climate on other planets and still no model discussion.

*Leaves model thread*  🤣

It could be worse the 18z has euro heights and a long fetch westerly but without the warm upppers

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6 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

so many deniers lurking around? Things sounding a bit desperate this evening as we are now talking about other planets! Where is your evidence to back the statement you made?

Only lurking until the nonsense starts appearing  🧐  - some evidence (for you to deny):

 

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Just now, Ed Stone said:

I think I prefer the Werewolf Theory...at least werewolves howl at the moon with purpose!🤔😱

I think I prefer the Pink Floyd lunar theory? If you listen to dark side of the moon backwards you can hear the words climate change around the 20 minute mark. 😮

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So this is my last look in FI of the pub run, you can clearly see the amplification of heights rising over Greenland pushing the low spinning off Eastern CONUS more southerly. A very typical downwelling pressure rise (if you ask me, but you're probably not!)

 

Screenshot 2019-02-01 at 22.27.13.png

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3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

I think I prefer the Werewolf Theory...at least werewolves howl at the moon with purpose!🤔😱

no problem - that is a usual reaction to facts that are hard to swallow 🧐

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