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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    The uk ridge woudnt contain low uppers so that makes sense .........

    Perhaps he means T2 temps?, although they didn't look terrible on the 0z graph to me, although looking at the D10 500mb mean, i could see SW winds for at least 2-3 days after that.

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    For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

    Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

    Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
    7 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    Since when did earthquakes affect global climate, that's quite a seismic claim you are making there...and your claims about climate go against what 97% of the scientific community think... I know who I'd rather trust. However maybe the moon and earthquakes will make our winters great again!

    Neither earthquake nor volcanic activity is increasing anyway.

    I wonder what “lunar activity” is? ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    4 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

    Neither earthquake nor volcanic activity is increasing anyway.

    I wonder what “lunar activity” is? ?

    It only take one 'unexpected' stray filament??

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
    4 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

     

    I wonder what “lunar activity” is? ?

    It's werewolves. Their increasing activity is releasing more CO into the atmosphere... Like Dairy cattle, only slightly more vicious.

    On topic, the pub run early doors, it's up to 78 and is increasing pressure to our north ever so slightly...

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Micro/macro 

    they predicted this week brilliantly well from two weeks out re a euro upper trough headed in  from the nw 

    So the amount of time HLB has been predicted is just people misreading the anomalies then?

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    8 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

    It's werewolves. Their increasing activity is releasing more CO into the atmosphere... Like Dairy cattle, only slightly more vicious.

    On topic, the pub run early doors, it's up to 78 and is increasing pressure to our north ever so slightly...

    Lycanthropic Global Warming, LGW, I presume...It used to be bad, but it's all right noooooooowwwww!

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

    120 on the pub run. Increasingly likely we see a link up between heights in Atlantic and the less deeper heights in Greenland here? Certainly more likely than it was on the 12z

     

    Screenshot 2019-02-01 at 22.07.38.png

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    15 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

    So the amount of time HLB has been predicted is just people misreading the anomalies then?

    To a degree - yes. Greenland for example is usually with low heights during winter. How big a high anomoly is required to actually see blocking up there ??   The assumption is that if the mean shows a high anomoly them come verification, that anomoly will be much higher ......not always the case though ......

    i made a post earlier re ‘mobile anomolys’ which has also been an issue this winter 

    but when the review is over, the Canadian vortex will be seen as being the destroyer of what might have been....

    although i’m not sure what your original post had to do with mine that you quoted .....

    Edited by bluearmy
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    Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal (Continental)
  • Location: Devon
    4 hours ago, Timer said:
    4 hours ago, Catacol said:

    2 things I don’t want to do now - firstly to suggest that winter is over now (my more pessimistic recent posts have been guilty of that) and secondly to ignite a debate on AGW.

    But ...

    Great post!

    for goodness sake, get a grip the two of you. Yes, there are fluctuations and variability in climate - always have been and always will be (remember a few years back we were told our children would never see snow?!). If AGW is to blame, how do you explain recent climate change on other planets in the solar system?!

    The climate IS changing - better look at the decay of our magnetosphere and simultaneous upcoming grand solar minimum. Human pollution and environmental destruction is bad, and needs to stop - but there are other, bigger things going on with the climate.

    In the meantime, get braced for some very cold winters after the next solar cycle...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal (Continental)
  • Location: Devon
    39 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    Since when did earthquakes affect global climate, that's quite a seismic claim you are making there

    um, 'Year without a Summer' after eruption of Mt Tambora: http://www.branchcollective.org/?ps_articles=gillen-darcy-wood-1816-the-year-without-a-summer

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

    So 120, 126 and 132 look like it's going to link up heights, but doesn't quite make it as the large lows link up. It has however, piqued my interest and I will be back to look at the 00z's in the morning. Subtle differences early doors just before FI can have big implications. 

    I'm not giving up hope yet!

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
    1 minute ago, Devonshire said:

    That was a volcano. Not an earthquake...

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    3 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

    for goodness sake, get a grip the two of you. Yes, there are fluctuations and variability in climate - always have been and always will be (remember a few years back we were told our children would never see snow?!). If AGW is to blame, how do you explain recent climate change on other planets in the solar system?!

    The climate IS changing - better look at the decay of our magnetosphere and simultaneous upcoming grand solar minimum. Human pollution and environmental destruction is bad, and needs to stop - but there are other, bigger things going on with the climate.

    In the meantime, get braced for some very cold winters after the next solar cycle...

     

    Oh dear this forum is going a bit wayward this evening, so many deniers lurking around? Things sounding a bit desperate this evening as we are now talking about other planets! Where is your evidence to back the statement you made? People seem to be forgetting CO2 is a greenhouse gas which traps in more of the solar radiation which enters our planets atmosphere, it's basic physics really...., just look at Venus...

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    3 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

    That was from a volcanic eruption... not an earthquake...

    Edit: beat me to it Rochey ???

    Edited by Quicksilver1989
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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    3 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

    Is that not a volcanic eruption ? 

     

    sorry echo echo

    Edited by frosty ground
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    Posted
  • Location: Colyton, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Old Fashioned Traditional Seasons
  • Location: Colyton, Devon
    5 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

    for goodness sake, get a grip the two of you. Yes, there are fluctuations and variability in climate - always have been and always will be (remember a few years back we were told our children would never see snow?!). If AGW is to blame, how do you explain recent climate change on other planets in the solar system?!

    The climate IS changing - better look at the decay of our magnetosphere and simultaneous upcoming grand solar minimum. Human pollution and environmental destruction is bad, and needs to stop - but there are other, bigger things going on with the climate.

    In the meantime, get braced for some very cold winters after the next solar cycle...

     

    Just giving my views - why is this forum so confrontational - I have a very firm grip thank you!

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
    1 minute ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    That was from a volcanic eruption... not an earthquake...

     

    1 minute ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

    Since when is a volcanic eruption the same as an earthquake? 

     

    1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

    Is that not a volcanic eruption ? 

    Is there an echo in here...

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    Posted
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)

    *Enters model thread*

    Sees talk of earthquakes volcanoes global warming and climate on other planets and still no model discussion.

    *Leaves model thread*  ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    6 minutes ago, Devonshire said:

    I think I prefer the Werewolf Theory...at least werewolves howl at the moon with purpose!??

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    2 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

    *Enters model thread*

    Sees talk of earthquakes volcanoes global warming and climate on other planets and still no model discussion.

    *Leaves model thread*  ?

    It could be worse the 18z has euro heights and a long fetch westerly but without the warm upppers

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    Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal (Continental)
  • Location: Devon
    6 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

    so many deniers lurking around? Things sounding a bit desperate this evening as we are now talking about other planets! Where is your evidence to back the statement you made?

    Only lurking until the nonsense starts appearing  ?  - some evidence (for you to deny):

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Wendover, Buckinghamshire
    Just now, Ed Stone said:

    I think I prefer the Werewolf Theory...at least werewolves howl at the moon with purpose!??

    I think I prefer the Pink Floyd lunar theory? If you listen to dark side of the moon backwards you can hear the words climate change around the 20 minute mark. ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.
  • Location: Santry, Dublin, Ireland. 50 metres ASL.

    So this is my last look in FI of the pub run, you can clearly see the amplification of heights rising over Greenland pushing the low spinning off Eastern CONUS more southerly. A very typical downwelling pressure rise (if you ask me, but you're probably not!)

     

    Screenshot 2019-02-01 at 22.27.13.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Seasonal (Continental)
  • Location: Devon
    3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    I think I prefer the Werewolf Theory...at least werewolves howl at the moon with purpose!??

    no problem - that is a usual reaction to facts that are hard to swallow ?

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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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