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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    6 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Looks like I was right last week then when I said GFS/ECM ops firming up on trending 'mild' at day 10 - I was the Peter Kay of this thread. Is there a smug emoji?...

    Some of us have been there time and again mate. You can't even act rightfully vindicated because you get accused of acting like a prat. No idea what people expect when you've been consistently chastised prior though. Ho hum.

    Oh and I believe the smug emoji is ? 

    My viewpoint now is, I just want to see one decent fall of snow before winter/early spring is out. We won't get a major sustained spell courtesy of HLB now, but we can hope for some cold snaps with more transient snowfall. 

    Edited by CreweCold
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    For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

    Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

    Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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    Posted
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
  • Location: South-West Norfolk
    7 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Looks like I was right last week then when I said GFS/ECM ops firming up on trending 'mild' at day 9/10 - I was the Peter Kay of this thread. Is there a smug emoji?...

    By the way good post Catacol.

    Turning milder after a cold spell, fancy that?! Think forecasters were saying the same but starting at the weekend, which has been delayed. Briefly less cold I think was said, we shall see. But top marks, a gold star is in the post!

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
    2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    We won't get a major sustained spell courtesy of HLB now, but we can hope for some cold snaps with more transient snowfall. 

    Just curious, but how can you know this. Surely it's more than possible still for HLB to establish before Spring arrives and it might still be possible for later in February or March even for this to happen. I'm not actually confident mind, but I still like to think that the possibility is there if nothing else.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing fog heatwave thunderstorm
  • Location: Ward Green barnsley

    Just my opinion. Don't shout at me lol .I think the models are overdoing the Atlantic very much and ain't got to grips with the Siberian high as yet. An unprecedented cold event as just happend in the U.S and it will play havoc with the models. I think the mild is way modelled over the top and I'm not interested in looking that far ahead anyway. At the moment we have a realistic idea what it will be like this coming Sunday and that's it 72hrs ahead max .I'm not gonna say it will happen because I'm not mother nature. But my opinion is in the next few day we may see the chart flip very cold and when they get to grips with the above event. Its interesting model watching to be honest. Just a waiting game at minute. I'm not ramping its just what I feel. Not posted in a while but love the banter and the education I get from this forum. so I thank you all for that.PS winter not over until march.

    Edited by weathermadbarnsleylad
    Missed a key point
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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

    Just curious, but how can you know this. Surely it's more than possible still for HLB to establish before Spring arrives and it might still be possible for later in February or March even for this to happen. I'm not actually confident mind, but I still like to think that the possibility is there if nothing else.

     

    It won't be sustained by default owing to the time of year. We can safely write off a week of Feb now and most likely 10 days. We're looking towards mid Feb for next shot of potential (there's that word again), given how the winter has gone thus far, would you bet your house on that potential being realised? 

    As I said, I'm just looking for a decent fall of snow now, no matter how transient. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL

    I'd just like to add that as I've said before on here my Winter runs from the 1st December to 20th March (hybrid of meteorological and astronomical definitions) so we've still got just under 7 weeks left to get a major cold and snowy spell in. In weather terms that's ages. Don't give up hope yet people ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
  • Location: Walsall Wood, Walsall, West Midlands 145m ASL
    5 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    It won't be sustained by default owing to the time of year. We can safely write off a week of Feb now and most likely 10 days. We're looking towards mid Feb for next shot of potential (there's that word again), given how the winter has gone thus far, would you bet your house on that potential being realised? 

    As I said, I'm just looking for a decent fall of snow now, no matter how transient. 

    I get your point, but taking last year as an example and the much more extreme case of late March 2013 I still think there's still a pretty big window for opportunity still. I accept though that these were extreme and therefore rare events for so late in the season but then again extreme cold spells are rare enough any time of year so it's possibly not much more less likely than a extreme cold spell in January if recent years are anything to go by.

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    No joy on the EPS either.

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
  • Location: North West Leeds 124m
    1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

    It won't be sustained by default owing to the time of year. We can safely write off a week of Feb now and most likely 10 days. We're looking towards mid Feb for next shot of potential (there's that word again), given how the winter has gone thus far, would you bet your house on that potential being realised? 

    As I said, I'm just looking for a decent fall of snow now, no matter how transient. 

    I might be wrong but isn't high level blocking more likely late Feb/March than any other time in Winter simply due to seasonal wavelengths? It seems to have been a pattern over the last few years that March has often been colder or at least had colder spells than many of the Winter months that precede it. 

    I think @Catacol's post is very interesting regarding a kind of 'modern climate' perhaps confusing (if that's the right word) the long range models and expected teleconnections. 

    Throw in a possible solar minimum over the next few years and we could be in for some interesting weather.

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    Posted
  • Location: pelsall, 500ft asl (west mids)
  • Location: pelsall, 500ft asl (west mids)

    Even in the very poor winter of 15/16

    i got falling and a partial covering of snow twice in early April !!

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    ECM op on the mild side of the mean around D8 & 9 a recovery in temps is going to happen by Tuesday/Wednesday but occasional cooler days are still likely

    graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.06c0df233218a9a0194ebb97154c5568.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    1 minute ago, nobble said:

    Even in the very poor winter of 15/16

    i got falling and a partial covering of snow twice in early April !!

    I got a decent dumping in early March 16. >4 inches but when i went up the pub at higher altitude, it was close to 8 inches in places, level 6 inches i would say.

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    26 minutes ago, Froze were the Days said:

    To true...just brought this up to remind a few people, I also got chastised about the wording of one of my posts when I mentioned 'firming up' and 'at day 10' which in all truth maybe in hindsight after I posted it wasn't the best thing to do on a 'Hunt for cold' thread but it looks like not being too far off the mark.

    I bet the flack you got had nothing to do with saying what the operations where doing and more the way you said it.

     

    ill also wager you provided no links to the charts to back your claim up because let’s face it you are one of the many posters that make bold unsubstantiated claims about how something won’t happen because it never does just so you can make these type of I told you so claims.

    as it happens 5 days ago I posted a chart that showed a big swing in the GEFS I also posted a base chart to show what it was like prior to that swing and I got zero grief because of it. I mention this not as I told you so but as a I simply stated what the models showed at that time there is zero skill in what I did the skill is the programming behind the models so I’m like you I post what I see but unlike you I don’t do it to wind up others or claim some victory I do it because that is what this thread is for.

    so to conclude you can’t be smug because you have actually done nothing of note zero contribution and zero added value I may suffer the same rating but then I don’t pretend otherwise

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Peterborough N.Cambridgeshire
    6 minutes ago, Northern Sky said:

    Throw in a possible solar minimum over the next few years and we could be in for some interesting weather.

    I am a firm believer in the effects from  solar max/min and this is why i am looking forward to the winters over the next few years.

    Back to the models and at least the ECM is an improvement on the GFS but to be honest the GFS is a shocker. Still remain unconvinced of this sudden momentum E of the general pattern i.e low in the Atlantic.

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    Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Winters
  • Location: Huddersfield
    2 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

    Blimey forecasting normal  British winter weather in winter. How clever.

    You are right I’ve been saying for ages. There is zero skill in forecasting mild weather or SW winds in winter it’s a default  setting.  it’s easy peasy, this is my prediction Sometime in July this summer it will get above 20 degrees somewhere  in the uk. That is a zero skill forecast and I am confident it will verify. If a couple of posters above could just come to the cold hunt thread with some cold hunt posts Well I would be inclined to unblock them and read their posts.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    4 minutes ago, Paul White. said:

    You are right I’ve been saying for ages. There is zero skill in forecasting mild weather or SW winds in winter it’s a default  setting.  it’s easy peasy, this is my prediction Sometime in July this summer it will get above 20 degrees somewhere  in the uk. That is a zero skill forecast and I am confident it will verify. If a couple of posters above could just come to the cold hunt thread with some cold hunt posts Well I would be inclined to unblock them and read their posts.

    It isn't 0 skill to go against the grain of what is expected with regards to background signals, sticking your neck out on this thread to a barrage of abuse from people who seemingly wouldn't know an isobar from a Mars bar. 

    Trust me. 

    Just because someone happens to not see a 2 month long freeze up on the horizon, it doesn't mean they should have their thoughts and opinions discredited, whether it's the hunt for cold or not. 

    Edited by CreweCold
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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    3 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    Yes, because the scientific basis has steered us so well this winter hasn't it... 

     

    Only the limits of our scientific knowledge has let us down.

    The answer to our problem in accurately predicting longer term weather is in science,  we just haven't got there yet.

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

    Only the limits of our scientific knowledge has let us down.

    The answer to our problem in accurately predicting longer term weather is in science,  we just haven't got there yet.

    Well that I agree with ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    21 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    You the man.

    Maybe should go into professional forecasting and earn a few bob.

    Can you tell me what the weather will be like for the 19th February please in North Down and provide some scientific basis to back up your forecast?

    Cheers.

     

    No but he can do an amazing Ahhhaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!!!

     

    Anyway..moving on, not much cold joy from the extended Ecm 12z ensemble mean tonight.

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

    It isn't 0 skill to go against the grain of what is expected with regards to background signals, sticking your neck out on this thread to a barrage of abuse from people who seemingly wouldn't know an isobar from a Mars bar. 

    Trust me. 

    Just because someone happens to not see a 2 month long freeze up on the horizon, it doesn't mean they should have their thoughts and opinions discredited, whether it's the hunt for cold or not. 

    Going against an opinion requires zero skill or education. This is why people think the world is flat and we didn’t land on the moon.

    a troll is a troll is a troll

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cottingham
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Cottingham
    2 hours ago, Timer said:

    Great post! A sign of things to come - is it these extremes that the models fail to get to grips with? Will they have to be re-calibrated to factor in such events as they become the norm? In an increasingly volatile climate will we have to find new ways to forecast our weather?

    I think at the end of the winter I'll write a detailed post of my thoughts about why cold has been so elusive despite some favourable background details. I won't go into detail now but I will say that I believe the cweather is becoming more volatile. The 2010s for example have been particularly notable for their extreme winter NAO values which have swung between strongly positive and negative. It is indicative of patterns becoming more sluggish to lift and I believe if this other factor that is causing the recent mild winters (17/18 excluded) reverses than we will see a record breaking -NAO winter instead, rather than something neutral.

    I think a lot of the earlier winter hype was related to a lull in solar activity and whilst I really do believe this can effect western European winters I do also believe there is a lag. 2006/07 and 2007/08 were pretty awful winters with a quiet sun. However 2008/09, 2009/10 and 2010/11 saw some variations we might have expected during those winters.

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    Posted
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, Snowy winters.
  • Location: Saffron Walden, Essex

    Hmm this thread has become a bizarre chat thing...

    Appears to be a Scandi block forming at day 9/10. Notice how the LP is repelled/elongated.

     

    ECH1-192.png

    ECH1-216.png

     

    there isn`t that much energy in the jet stream but there are signs of it going south again after being straight over us until the 7th.

     

    gfs-5-138.png

    Edited by Stuie W
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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

    Crickey, it’s friendly in here tonight. 

    No matter how much peeps argue it won’t make the blindest bit of difference to the weather. Constantly predicting mild weather in the uk may not be a good way to demonstrate skill, but nor is constantly predicting snow and then claiming victory when it happens after the 15th chase of the winter. On this basis why don’t we all agree a truce and move on. 

    One thing we can all be sure of is that there is no correlation between the likelihood of HLB and arguing in the thread so why waste the energy.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Broadmayne a few miles north of Weymouth in Dorset
    5 hours ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

    There is no doubt that the background signals do have an affect on the atmospheric circulation but they are quite broad brush and the problem is people hear the words 'mjo phase 7/8/1 has good analogues for northern blocking' or SSW and straight away assume that the block will be in the right place with a long fetch easterly with our name on it. 

    People really need to look at a picture of the earth from space and look at the miniscule size of uk in global terms and then perhap they might understand  how hard it is to get anything to hit that target. Then look at the size of the united states/canada and one can see that the current 'polar vortex' hitting the midwest could have dropped south the best part of 1000 mile east or west of where it has and still brought deep life threatening cold to some part of the united states/canada  In our case we are so miniscule in global terms that 100 miles in any direction and we can miss out.

    We need to bear in mind as has been pointed out so many times that the default winter pattern for us is from the westerly quadrant. So an easterly is not just a small change from that pattern it is diametrically opposed to anything we should expect in winter, which is why they, like spells of  cold/and snow of more than a few days in the UK are rarer than rocking horse poo.

    The background signals do not guarantee sustained cold /snow for the UK but you can can also guarantee that NONE of our extended cold/snowy spells or severe winters would have happened without them being favourable.

    Posted this earlier when it was a bit quiet this afternoon.

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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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