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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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We have had many winters without a significant SSW event , that have delivered big Snowfalls . Feb is statistic wise the Coldest Month of the year.

Edited by BlackburnChris

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41 minutes ago, johnholmes said:

Have you read the thread explaining how the latest papers on these topics are available. Worth reading rather than suggesting 'dark arts' ?

Indeed, however, we are like little boys trying to fly and control sophisticated billion dollar, high-tech, supersonic fighter jets without the manual or the aviation experience.

We've a long way to go 😀

Edited by Easton Luna Boys

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Looking at the ECM mean it'll be cold over the next few days with a mix of rain, sleet and snow it then becomes less cold towards the end of the week peaking most likely on Friday before a dip in temps through the weekend and into the final few days of Jan

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.c62f18d0437d4433d7d921fa4e2d2097.png

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34 minutes ago, ArHu3 said:

As we saw december 2017 the pv can recover very fast

Especially in early winter, but much more difficult as winter goes on.

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8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well its was about 5 away on UKMO the other day 😄

I take your point, i'm as frustrated as the next coldie, i am trying to be optimistic, its that or give up!!

My optimism has dissipated now.  Enough is enough!

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Monday night /Tuesday looks good for snow showers through the north channel and into the Isle of Man as well. Also the milder incursion at the end of the week now looks very brief with increasing confidence of a very cold northerly blast as soon as next weekend, and then a very cold outlook after that.  Certainly lots to look forward to ! 

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3 minutes ago, Don said:

My optimism has dissipated now.  Enough is enough!

Hopefully things are on the up!! 🙂

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Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean really locks in the cold and very unsettled pattern once it arrives through next weekend..looking forward to many snow opportunities during the coming weeks..also there is always potential for severe cold to pop up with our weather swinging down from the NW / N..wouldn't take much for an E'ly / NE'ly down the line!👍:cold-emoji:❄️

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3 minutes ago, Don said:

My optimism has dissipated now.  Enough is enough!

On January 20th …...really?

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1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Hopefully things are on the up!! 🙂

We will see but not getting my hopes up.

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2 minutes ago, Banbury said:

On January 20th …...really?

Just frustrated that ‘true’ cold has constantly been put back since November.  Why will that not continue?

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2 minutes ago, Don said:

We will see but not getting my hopes up.

not the best location, but Feb and Mar are the coldest/more likely for E'ly months, January is rarely cold in the south post '98 or so

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1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

How many times will this so called joke be posted🤔

It’s always jam at day 10 🤭. It will probably be said a few more times yet . 

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40 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

I suppose it’s all about expectations on here . The ecm run is ok , the better the north you are but I’m wanting something a bit more tasty as I’m sure everyone is . Don’t get me wrong the EC run is better than having sw winds 🤮. But with all the background signals etc etc we should be expecting a bit more than a N wester or a fleeting Northerly . Don’t get me wrong I’m not exspecting last years beast but something in between would be good . It’s all a bit half hearted at the min . Don’t shoot me down I’ve been positive all winter , just losing the faith a bit now 🙁

IC don't lose faith it's going to happen,the first attempt was flawed because no back up from Mother Nature,but the second attempt at end of Jan / beginning of February will succeed because the birds are going into panic mode looking for food.

Also going to make a big statement we better get use to ssw events because they will become more frequent as the planet warms up ( but more research needed on this one) so as the planet warms we will get colder winters.

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Evening! Its amazing how squiggly lines on a weather map can stir strong emotions!  Okay , the Easterly has been put on hold for a while , but looking at the next ten days or so, plenty of major shots of polar maritime air, from strong North Westerly winds. Potential for Northerlies too, ,and perhaps a Polar front which happened  nationwide 15 years ago, lots going on in the weather, in the days ahead...But Caution! there is a high level of Shannon Entropy , meaning very low confidence in the forecast, so righting off Winter now , is like having ten Chickens , yes ten Chickens , and guessing how many eggs they will lay in the morning!!!🤩

wams.png

wamsx.png

wamsxx.png

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

It’s always jam at day 10 🤭. It will probably be said a few more times yet . 

I do believe, day 10 `this` time holds a great chance, the turn of the month.

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As has been posted there is interest this week!!! This is the hunt for cold thread not the hunt for knee deep snow and uk to a standstill thread. Model viewing at t120 plus can and does go wrong. If that’s to frustrating for some then stick to output up to t72👍👍

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1 minute ago, danm said:

I’m sorry, but I think you need to look at yourself and not berate or complain to very knowledgeable people who have made some excellent predictions. 

The reason you need to look at yourself is that you seem to have a bit of an entitlement complex. The fact you haven’t seen snow is making you lash out, criticise and attempt to debunk the sound science people like @Catacol have been sharing on here. 

I and others have said this countless times - these “background signals” that you seem to now be dismissing as ‘dark arts’, increase the PROBABILITY of a UK cold spell, it doesn’t guarantee it. We may not see anything from the SSW. And if we don’t, it would be a great shame, but so be it. However, you cannot deny or dismiss the fact that a SSW and changes in other background signals increases our chances of a cold spell. 

Quite true.

The US have the AO tanking negative, the NAO is going negative and the effects of the SSW still not fully resolved.

That is hardly dark arts, they are signals.

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3 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:
18 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean really locks in the cold and very unsettled pattern once it arrives through next weekend..looking forward to many snow opportunities during the coming weeks..also there is always potential for severe cold to pop up with our weather swinging down from the NW / N..wouldn't take much for an E'ly / NE'ly down the line!👍:cold-emoji:❄️

Day 10 looks like its got potential ...

I'll get my coat... ☺

 

lol nobody mention the E word in here again for the sake of everyone's sanity

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1 minute ago, Stuie W said:

Quite true.

The US have the AO tanking negative, the NAO is going negative and the effects of the SSW still not fully resolved.

That is hardly dark arts, they are signals.

Just look at last year, seemed like forever to kick in the SSW, then last few days of februrary into march we got hammered with some historical cold!

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Back to friendly model discussion please. 

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