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Posted
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Continental winters & summers.
  • Location: Cleeve, North Somerset
    1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

    Good God! What stonker that is - for July!

    image.thumb.png.e1b069e07d4a29f4c88cfd725b2f90f2.pngimage.thumb.png.676577f89f2da86c1353f173738fd02f.png  

    It's a bit like Alice in Wonderland: the faster you run after it, the farther away it gets! image.thumb.png.cb21957ff3a853c15835093e1ed5577c.png

    Wouldn't mind that actually - would feel like spring, much nicer than boring semi-zonal crap off the Atlantic.

    Anyone know when it's safe to ignore the GFS completely and just follow the new version?

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    For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

    Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

    Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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    Posted
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset
  • Location: Weymouth, Dorset

    Not concerned whatsoever.

    Short 'faux-zonal' spell next week fairly nailed on. Thereafter D6+ still up from grabs. It really wouldn't take much to head down an enirely different path and very quickly we have an evolving easterly.

    And if this really is it for winter 18/19 (personally, I very much doubt it). after this week, I will leave it as happy as I was after Winter 17/18!

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
    6 minutes ago, warrenb said:

    Control going same way as main run. Mild mild mild.

      what’s more this is one of those runs highly likely to verify sods law  that would really put the icing on the cake should this verify ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    1 hour ago, SnoFlakeEar said:

    A newbie question in regard to the SSW winter 2018/19. When was it picked up that this would occur, and would we be likely to see again this year or is it more of a rarity?. 

    I think it became clear that a SSW was going to occur on about 15 Dec.  Initially  thought to occur around 26 Dec, it actually happened on 1 Jan.   Fallout now being felt, but despite the heaviest snowfall I can remember, I'm sure there will be plenty of people saying it's nowt to do with the SSW.  They are wrong.

    My view re future years, is that SSW events in the north hemisphere will become more common.  What that means for our weather on the ground in winter is much less certain.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    3 minutes ago, jethro said:

    You know all those times when folk say 'ooo, it's not cold enough for snow' and the endless times we all hear 'cold has to be entrenched to get decent snow' well it's not true, it doesn't necessarily take a Siberian blast to get snow. It's not particularly cold, there is no beast and we've had 20 hours of continuous snow in the mild South West. It wasn't a slushy mess, it didn't struggle to settle, and it just got deeper and deeper - stopped measuring at 28cm as the weight was compacting it.

    So the next time the models aren't looking particularly promising, remember sometimes the most borderline of conditions can deliver the most.

    To be fair to the forecasters, they did say there'd be deep snow 'by Dawn, today'??

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Very quickly..

    Can we have a hunt for spring in the depths of winter thread...

    As this is clearly the hunt for cold, and a steady few-would likely fill the mild thread up...based on my viewing??!!

     

    Edit..

    It was snowing imby march 12th last year on the bk of another ssw...

    Its the 1st of feb...so the possibilities point..it could still be mid winter..theoretically!!!..

     

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Colyton, Devon
  • Weather Preferences: Old Fashioned Traditional Seasons
  • Location: Colyton, Devon
    5 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    2 things I don’t want to do now - firstly to suggest that winter is over now (my more pessimistic recent posts have been guilty of that) and secondly to ignite a debate on AGW.

    But we do need to accept that globally things are happening that are more than just better/more media reporting. The cold in Chicago is exceptional. The heat in Australia was the same. Last year’s SSW shredded the vortex and created a really dramatic tropospheric reversal of a kind I don’t think we have seen before. This season we had an SSW that produced a 23 day reversal at 10hpa which makes it a top 3 event at that level. We have MJO forecasts that are wildly variable (more than usually so) and a global SST picture that is increasingly painting the globe yellow/red in above average readings. Arctic sea ice is in summer crisis, and let’s not forget a very odd QBO event in the last few years (2016?) that turned an easterly to a westerly without warning.

    Th bottom line is that unusual and extreme weather is getting more common, and possibly our models are going to be increasingly stretched in trying to take them into account. Is low sea ice going to begin a pattern of more high lat blocking in autumn which then triggers more vortex perturbation? How will this interact with a trend towards lower solar influence perhaps over the next cycle? 

    I could go on at length, but won’t. My children get bored when I start talking weather, but their generation may well be increasingly subject to these extremes. And I’m convinced - a big and very cold UK winter is on the horizon somewhere in the next 5 - 10 years because of the growing list of extreme pre conditions. And perhaps it is therefore time to view any medium to longe range NWP with more suspicion than normal.

    Great post! A sign of things to come - is it these extremes that the models fail to get to grips with? Will they have to be re-calibrated to factor in such events as they become the norm? In an increasingly volatile climate will we have to find new ways to forecast our weather?

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    Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
    15 minutes ago, warrenb said:

    Control going same way as main run. Mild mild mild.

    We haven't seen zonal GFS runs like that in long time.

    Icon and UKMO looking a bit more ridgy today though.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
  • Weather Preferences: Any Extreme
  • Location: Sheffield South Yorkshire 160M Powering the Sheffield Shield
    2 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    Very quickly..

    Can we have a hunt for spring in the depths of winter thread...

    As this is clearly the hunt for cold, and a steady few-would likely fill the mild thread up...based on my viewing??!!

    Well here you go

     

     

    viewimage.pbx.png

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    2 minutes ago, The PIT said:

    Well here you go

     

     

    viewimage.pbx.png

    Fantastic 10/10 4 sarcasm...

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    Posted
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and lots of it or warm and sunny, no mediocre dross
  • Location: Somerset midway between Bath&Wells. Mendips 200m asl
    36 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    To be fair to the forecasters, they did say there'd be deep snow 'by Dawn, today'??

    Well they got that right ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North

    It's time for some reverse psychology i think..what great charts from the Gfs 12z operational..loving these background signals!..really hope this verifies!!!????:shok:

    12_99_mslp850.png

    12_99_ukthickness850.png

    12_99_uk2mtmp.png

    12_219_uk2mtmp.png

    12_219_ukthickness850.png

    12_219_mslp850.png

    12_240_uk2mtmp.png

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    24 minutes ago, kold weather said:

    Main that main run from GFS was brutal!

    It basically revives an old advisory...the Bartlett high!

    Not sure EC is going to be much better..

    The Atlantic will just not give up...

    ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
    1 hour ago, Catacol said:

    a big and very cold UK winter is on the horizon somewhere in the next 5 - 10 years because of the growing list of extreme pre conditions. And perhaps it is therefore time to view any medium to longe range NWP with more suspicion than normal.

    Completely agree with this...I said several years back that I expect the 'motherlode' of winters to happen before 2025.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    By the way, if you've never heard of a Bartlett, here is it in all of its glory:

    CFSR_1_1998021200_1.png

    Looks pretty similar to the 12z GFS at 348hrs, though not quite as textbook as that! That is the mild fans version of the beast, and equally as rare!

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
    1 hour ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

    GFS 12z brings in uncle Bartlett ??‍♂️

    thought swearing wasnt allowed on here?

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    1 hour ago, jethro said:

    You know all those times when folk say 'ooo, it's not cold enough for snow' and the endless times we all hear 'cold has to be entrenched to get decent snow' well it's not true, it doesn't necessarily take a Siberian blast to get snow. It's not particularly cold, there is no beast and we've had 20 hours of continuous snow in the mild South West. It wasn't a slushy mess, it didn't struggle to settle, and it just got deeper and deeper - stopped measuring at 28cm as the weight was compacting it.

    So the next time the models aren't looking particularly promising, remember sometimes the most borderline of conditions can deliver the most.

    Yes but its all melting rapidly, that's the problem with these type of cold spells, the cold isn't sustained, as its only transitional, that's why a cold spell with a siberian high or HLB is much better as the cold and snow lasts a lot longer 

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    Posted
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts
  • Weather Preferences: Snow snow and snow
  • Location: Broxbourne, Herts

    Further to Catacol's post, I just wanted to add a bit more speculation into the mix...

    What if the earth is undergoing a process of reversing polarity as I understand it is wont to do every now and then? Nobody knows what that's like in its early stages. Perhaps it starts like this. And I understand that true magnetic north has been undergoing rapid movement lately that keeps requiring a recalbration of something or other that the recent US shutdown exacerbated the problem.

    Or it might just be the weather...

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    Posted
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and heatwave
  • Location: Napton on the Hill Warwickshire 500ft
    1 hour ago, The PIT said:

    Well here you go

     

     

    viewimage.pbx.png

    Fred is not going to like that 

    IMG-20190201-WA0032.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    Looks like I was right last week then when I said GFS/ECM ops firming up on trending 'mild' at day 9/10 - I was the Peter Kay of this thread. Is there a smug emoji?...

    By the way good post Catacol.

    Edited by Froze were the Days
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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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