Cold hunt - models and chat

[JoeShmoe 3,281]

Hopefully spring and summer make up for it and we have a repeat of last year !

[Penrith Snow 1,647]

Just looked at the radar and the snow in the south has turned to sleet, this winter really is pants.

GFS meanwhile is giving us deep south westerlies by next weekend with a Iberian High that is verging on a Bartlett!

Don't know about SSW downwelling, this is tropical air upwelling!

Christ, you couldn't make it up.

Andy

[Skullzrulerz 3,823]

With most of the cold spell and eventful two days it's now very much time that we look for a next chance of getting a cold spell 

At the moment there's a fair bit of dis trust because the models and thus the weather hasn't gotten us the goods we need 

Of course the famous words know as background signals through are on our side hasn't really lucked out

We should remember with all being unusual that we shouldn't go out too far out and anything could pop out of nowhere no matter if it's cold or mild

We still have this month and possibly march but as people had said time is running out and if there's no action taken it's goodbye to this winter but let's not take anything for granted

?

[SnoFlakeEar 35]

A newbie question in regard to the SSW winter 2018/19. When was it picked up that this would occur, and would we be likely to see again this year or is it more of a rarity?. 

[mountain shadow 9,837]

I'm assuming the Meto T+144 is garbage then?

[mb018538 10,442]

5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

I'm assuming the Meto T+144 is garbage then?

Not much to say - westerly driven Atlantic dross. Temps a bit above average. Waiting patiently for the next batch of ‘its got potential’ charts.

[KTtom 1,725]

To be fair the ukmo is wonderfull compared to the gfs.....if your of a nervous disposition look away now!

Edited February 1, 2019 by KTtom

[nick sussex 64,065]

Changes  on the UKMO compared to its morning run.

More amplified upstream . And low pressure losing its intensity near the UK.

The GFS is much flatter in comparison by day 6.

 

[MR EXTREMES 3,195]

Long stretch southwesterly there but is that heights building over near Greenland 

[booferking 6,898]

Next area of interest is 120-144hr can we get a good wedge between the lows i think we can ONE TO WATCH.. 

Edited February 1, 2019 by booferking

[igloo 442]

21 minutes ago, SnoFlakeEar said:

A newbie question in regard to the SSW winter 2018/19. When was it picked up that this would occur, and would we be likely to see again this year or is it more of a rarity?. 

yes this ssw warming event took place at the start of January and takes about 3-5 weeks to show its self north America is now having the effects of this event as we speak on average you tend to only get 2-3 ssw events every decade so we could well have to wait a while for the next one possibly

[MR EXTREMES 3,195]

Ukmo is close apart from that little low of coast of Canada.

But the longer range models do seem to flattening ridges quickly most likely to do with a vortex revival.

Although as some have said the effects can linger like a bad fart.

But I think the models could be wrong so much going on in the atmosphere I think it would be wise to wait till Monday to see any improvements or worsening charts.

Edited February 1, 2019 by MR EXTREMES

[General Cluster 63,148]

2 minutes ago, KTtom said:

To be fair the ukmo is wonderfull compared to the gfs.....if your of a nervous disposition look away now!

Here is an SOS message...Would Lord & Lady Down-Welling, last heard of (lost her dog?) sometime last week, please report to to the nearest police station, as your absences have been noted!

For interested members of the public, here is a videofit showing the couples' vehicles:  

And, lastly, does anyone recognise the couple, on this GFS chart, as it's suspected that they may in fact be in hiding?

[Summer Sun 56,210]

An early taste of spring next Sunday on GFS 12z op

[Yarmy 7,993]

15 minutes ago, igloo said:

yes this ssw warming event took place at the start of January and takes about 3-5 weeks to show its self north America is now having the effects of this event as we speak on average you tend to only get 2-3 ssw events every decade so we could well have to wait a while for the next one possibly

They are more frequent than that: 6.2-6.5 per decade depending on the criteria used. It's just that they are often too late to have an effect in meteorological winter.

https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/groups/csd8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html

 

[swfc 4,826]

Pretty rank set of 12zhas to be said.looking at fi looks to be a Westerly regime towards mid month if gFS is to believed.now I know things can change very quickly but just in judging the output nothing of note imo.

[syed2878 778]

1 hour ago, Optimus Prime said:

Doesn't always have to equate severe cold. This cold spell hasn't been extreme at all but has produced fairly widespread snow from a NW'ly airstream and very low minima.

Ultimately if the models are poor mid-month (they're not poor atm btw) then we have 22nd February > to produce a change and initiate the chase again. This rule works for every 6 or 7 days up to the last week of March. 

Knee-jerk reactions based on hypothetical outcomes mixed with great volatility and uncertainty. I wouldn't like to be standing on either side of the fence right now. If I had to choose, would be standing on the cold side that's for sure.

  I totally disagree this cold snap did not produced wide spread snow and I do totally agree with quicksilver’s post 

[tight isobar 15,081]

4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

An early taste of spring next Sunday on GFS 12z op

And if some1 posted a chart @that range showing -16 hpa... they would be laughed off the field...

Gfs playing its favourite tricks..and imo will be the 1 whom struggles the most with any ssw impacts.

[Jason M 3,229]

Wow, that GFS run is a real contender for worst run of the winter so far. Doesn't necessarily mean its right though and Meto gives a bit more hope at 144.  

Edit GEFS out to 144 give just enough variety to give some hope.

Another Edit ? . Four or five of the GEFS want to raise heights at higher latitudes around day 7. Maybe just worthy of a little bit of interest.

Edited February 1, 2019 by Jason M

[Jason M 3,229]

3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

And if some1 posted a chart @that range showing -16 hpa... they would be laughed off the field...

Gfs playing its favourite tricks..and imo will be the 1 whom struggles the most with any ssw impacts.

In fairness, no they wouldn't, they would be hailed as the new messiah. 

[prolongedSnowLover 1,577]

GFS 12z brings in uncle Bartlett ??‍♂️

[swfc 4,826]

10 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

And if some1 posted a chart @that range showing -16 hpa... they would be laughed off the field...

Gfs playing its favourite tricks..and imo will be the 1 whom struggles the most with any ssw impacts.

Problem is TI nothing ever gets close ie any SSW effects what brings sustained cold!!!! It may happen but the clocks ticking however you out it

[tight isobar 15,081]

7 minutes ago, Jason M said:

In fairness, no they wouldn't, they would be hailed as the new messiah. 

Likely..

But that was'nt my point..

We are @144 TOPS..as we stand 4 anything of near exaction.

The gfs is the wife of zonal...and what i like atm..she reverts b4 she converts!!!.

And sometimes in a big way.

Over to some more data sets.

Edited February 1, 2019 by tight isobar

[General Cluster 63,148]

Good God! What stonker that is - for July!

  

It's a bit like Alice in Wonderland: the faster you run after it, the farther away it gets! 

[warrenb 1,490]

GFS Para going the same way as the UKMO