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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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Posted
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snowy winters and warm sunny summers
  • Location: Penrith Cumbria

    Just looked at the radar and the snow in the south has turned to sleet, this winter really is pants.

    GFS meanwhile is giving us deep south westerlies by next weekend with a Iberian High that is verging on a Bartlett!

    Don't know about SSW downwelling, this is tropical air upwelling!

    Christ, you couldn't make it up.

    Andy

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    Posted
  • Location: Cornwall
  • Location: Cornwall

    With most of the cold spell and eventful two days it's now very much time that we look for a next chance of getting a cold spell 

    At the moment there's a fair bit of dis trust because the models and thus the weather hasn't gotten us the goods we need 

    Of course the famous words know as background signals through are on our side hasn't really lucked out

    We should remember with all being unusual that we shouldn't go out too far out and anything could pop out of nowhere no matter if it's cold or mild

    We still have this month and possibly march but as people had said time is running out and if there's no action taken it's goodbye to this winter but let's not take anything for granted

    ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Swale
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Swale

    A newbie question in regard to the SSW winter 2018/19. When was it picked up that this would occur, and would we be likely to see again this year or is it more of a rarity?. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Summer > Spring > Winter > Autumn :-)
  • Location: Cambridge, UK
    5 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

    I'm assuming the Meto T+144 is garbage then?

    Not much to say - westerly driven Atlantic dross. Temps a bit above average. Waiting patiently for the next batch of ‘its got potential’ charts.

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    Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales

    To be fair the ukmo is wonderfull compared to the gfs.....if your of a nervous disposition look away now!

    GFSOPEU12_192_1.png

    Edited by KTtom
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE

    Changes  on the UKMO compared to its morning run.

    More amplified upstream . And low pressure losing its intensity near the UK.

    The GFS is much flatter in comparison by day 6.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    754487092_gfs-0-192(1).thumb.png.f5cde72b5a6a28af3d4d139ba613c8b3.png

    Long stretch southwesterly there but is that heights building over near Greenland 

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    Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
    21 minutes ago, SnoFlakeEar said:

    A newbie question in regard to the SSW winter 2018/19. When was it picked up that this would occur, and would we be likely to see again this year or is it more of a rarity?. 

    yes this ssw warming event took place at the start of January and takes about 3-5 weeks to show its self north America is now having the effects of this event as we speak on average you tend to only get 2-3 ssw events every decade so we could well have to wait a while for the next one possibly

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    UN144-21.thumb.gif.b48f73538421d4c0fcac53b4d874b612.gifUN144-21.thumb.gif.b48f73538421d4c0fcac53b4d874b612.gif

    Ukmo is close apart from that little low of coast of Canada.

    But the longer range models do seem to flattening ridges quickly most likely to do with a vortex revival.

    Although as some have said the effects can linger like a bad fart.

    But I think the models could be wrong so much going on in the atmosphere I think it would be wise to wait till Monday to see any improvements or worsening charts.

    Edited by MR EXTREMES
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    2 minutes ago, KTtom said:

    To be fair the ukmo is wonderfull compared to the gfs.....if your of a nervous disposition look away now!

    GFSOPEU12_192_1.png

    Here is an SOS message...Would Lord & Lady Down-Welling, last heard of (lost her dog?) sometime last week, please report to to the nearest police station, as your absences have been noted!

    For interested members of the public, here is a videofit showing the couples' vehicles: image.thumb.png.ea1b92a6ae8192711d943f4a1412c02c.png 

    And, lastly, does anyone recognise the couple, on this GFS chart, as it's suspected that they may in fact be in hiding?

    image.thumb.png.feae0d48c094fba7e29e121bb922a7a0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
    15 minutes ago, igloo said:

    yes this ssw warming event took place at the start of January and takes about 3-5 weeks to show its self north America is now having the effects of this event as we speak on average you tend to only get 2-3 ssw events every decade so we could well have to wait a while for the next one possibly

    They are more frequent than that: 6.2-6.5 per decade depending on the criteria used. It's just that they are often too late to have an effect in meteorological winter.

    https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/csd/groups/csd8/sswcompendium/majorevents.html

     

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Pretty rank set of 12zhas to be said.looking at fi looks to be a Westerly regime towards mid month if gFS is to believed.now I know things can change very quickly but just in judging the output nothing of note imo.

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    Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
    1 hour ago, Optimus Prime said:

    Doesn't always have to equate severe cold. This cold spell hasn't been extreme at all but has produced fairly widespread snow from a NW'ly airstream and very low minima.

    Ultimately if the models are poor mid-month (they're not poor atm btw) then we have 22nd February > to produce a change and initiate the chase again. This rule works for every 6 or 7 days up to the last week of March. 

    Knee-jerk reactions based on hypothetical outcomes mixed with great volatility and uncertainty. I wouldn't like to be standing on either side of the fence right now. If I had to choose, would be standing on the cold side that's for sure.

      I totally disagree this cold snap did not produced wide spread snow and I do totally agree with quicksilver’s post 

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    4 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    An early taste of spring next Sunday on GFS 12z op

    DyVZS8yXgAQmCdI.thumb.jpg.2af3a1fb4a8411b482cd5a42e6e14f16.jpg

    And if some1 posted a chart @that range showing -16 hpa... they would be laughed off the field...

    Gfs playing its favourite tricks..and imo will be the 1 whom struggles the most with any ssw impacts.

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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex

    Wow, that GFS run is a real contender for worst run of the winter so far. Doesn't necessarily mean its right though and Meto gives a bit more hope at 144.  

    Edit GEFS out to 144 give just enough variety to give some hope.

    Another Edit ? . Four or five of the GEFS want to raise heights at higher latitudes around day 7. Maybe just worthy of a little bit of interest.

    Edited by Jason M
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    Posted
  • Location: South Essex
  • Location: South Essex
    3 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    And if some1 posted a chart @that range showing -16 hpa... they would be laughed off the field...

    Gfs playing its favourite tricks..and imo will be the 1 whom struggles the most with any ssw impacts.

    In fairness, no they wouldn't, they would be hailed as the new messiah. 

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    10 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    And if some1 posted a chart @that range showing -16 hpa... they would be laughed off the field...

    Gfs playing its favourite tricks..and imo will be the 1 whom struggles the most with any ssw impacts.

    Problem is TI nothing ever gets close ie any SSW effects what brings sustained cold!!!! It may happen but the clocks ticking however you out it

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    7 minutes ago, Jason M said:

    In fairness, no they wouldn't, they would be hailed as the new messiah. 

    Likely..

    But that was'nt my point..

    We are @144 TOPS..as we stand 4 anything of near exaction.

    The gfs is the wife of zonal...and what i like atm..she reverts b4 she converts!!!.

    And sometimes in a big way.

    Over to some more data sets.

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Good God! What stonker that is - for July!

    image.thumb.png.e1b069e07d4a29f4c88cfd725b2f90f2.pngimage.thumb.png.676577f89f2da86c1353f173738fd02f.png  

    It's a bit like Alice in Wonderland: the faster you run after it, the farther away it gets! image.thumb.png.cb21957ff3a853c15835093e1ed5577c.png

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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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