Cold hunt - models and chat

[Stu_London 915]

6z as bad as it can get for cold hunters. +144 is for fun only, but some of the building blocks within the next few days that were there previously are being eroded.

[snowfish1 456]

10 minutes ago, Stu_London said:

6z as bad as it can get for cold hunters. +144 is for fun only, but some of the building blocks within the next few days that were there previously are being eroded.

Truly dire news. A winter of potential and promise fast becoming a tedious bore fest 

[Dean E 911]

1 hour ago, Daniel Smith said:

Not usually one to call "winter is over" but I feel like that's probably largely it, now.

Very little support on any model for proper cold, EC46 has largely backed away from the idea though that model has been about as useful as a kettle in forecasting the weather this winter. Next week looks largely Atlantic dominated and those patterns can typically last a two weeks or more. 

It's been a fun one, an incredibly frustrating one but that's what keeps us coming back, I suppose!

EC Monthly still sticking with Northerly blocking during February with signs of Greenland Heights rising later in this month. So it is not all doom and gloom.

Of course, its not been a perfect model this year, but it has had a good go.

[Snow Dayz 40]

10 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

Truly dire news. A winter of potential and promise fast becoming a tedious bore fest 

Yep I couldn't agree more! Roll on spring and some warm sunshine time to quit the cold hunt before I go mad lol!

[frosty ground 4,497]

The 06z Ensembles out so far don't really back the Op 

also a bit more tighter grouping on the short term ensembles compared to the 0z

Starting to look like we could get a repeat of this week, relying more on wedges than the Euro low.

[Norrance 6,091]

No more Winter is over posts please unless backed up by a proper analysis of the models and bear in mind also that this is the cold hunt thread.

[adrianh 66]

I don't think the output is really that bad for cold - yes it's going to be milder next week but it's hardly a horrific zonal train either. Plenty of chances for further cold and worst case scenario, at least we can start hunting some spring warmth soon instead! 

[Snow Queen one 1,098]

Frosty ground I don't want a repeat of this week.  Not for my area lol

[Quicksilver1989 5,674]

Well we have had a fair bit of snow across southern England recently but the 06z swingometers are bringing some sobering news.

In short they are poor, the OP was probably on the milder end of the scale but a lot of the ensemble members are dominated by westerlies. By the time we get to February 10th a predominantly zonal picture emerges. Not all mild zonality as the swingometers show for this time but the lack of northern blocking is pretty clear. Some exceptions are still evident though. Best I can find for Feb 10th is a brief cold shot in P17 but that quickly gets whisked away.

 

For February 15th things are obviously a little bit more varied as the swingometers show but still uninspring... best I can find is P5 with this Greenland high... I can only hope that this verifies

 

The global temperature anomalies highlight our problem... much below average temperatures in Newfoundland and much above average temperatures over the SE USA. This sets up a huge temperature gradient off the eastern seaboard. What we want to look out for is a pattern similar to what we see on the right... but no matter what this winter NE Canada has always found a way of being in the cold, ramping up the Atlantic jet in the process.

 

I think this has been the problem all winter... background signals can help but if you have got cold air from NE Canada pouring into the Atlantic all winter these signals can simply be blown away. If we get a Scandi high then things on the eastern seaboard don't matter but they have proved to be elusive all winter.

So we are at a low point for the moment and although strong westerlies go a little against the February climatology, there is a plausible reason for them showing in the output. 

I mentioned a few days ago that if we are still seeing poor output at the start of February then I would be worried. My concerns are increasing now and if we don't see a change soon I will be raising the white flag and looking forward to Spring. I don't want to consign this winter to the rubbish bin yet but unless we get something really cold for the end of February than we might as well chase some warmth.

Edited February 1, 2019 by Quicksilver1989

[Froze were the Days 3,002]

40 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Certainly wants to ramp up the Atlantic when it should be calming down. Maybe the increase in the zonal winds in the strat are having a quicker impact on the trop than the large decrease did?

Didn't see much in a way of a wind reversal in our neck of the woods did we? in relation to the trop response to the SSW but it would be sods law that we'd see a quick response back to normal zonal winds

[bluearmy 42,765]

9 minutes ago, Snow Queen one said:

Frosty ground I don't want a repeat of this week.  Not for my area lol

no ticket to the raffle means no prize .........

[Jon Snow 79,701]

The Gfs 6z operational certainly looks like a wet run with very little white after this week, looks quite disturbed.

[General Cluster 60,125]

And yet, the FV3 has a marginal event for next Thursday - when we're still north of the PFJ:

  

I just don't believe that we're done with cold weather yet...Northern blocking is commoner, come late February and March...?

[swfc 4,749]

Well after looking at this mornings runs and comments it looks a long way to any sustained cold spell.Winter obv isn't over but after weeks and weeks of anticipation I think its becoming hard work to run with much longer imo.

[kold weather 10,162]

Does kind of feel like it's just not going to happen this winter now, at least in a sustained way. I Suppose we managed to get something from this week, even if for some it's been poor and so this week has probably over achived given no blocking to our north.

Anyway that 06 GFS was so dull...that looks like the utter definition of  a bland above average setup. Couldn't get more boring actually!

[Borei 378]

The GFS 6z ensembles illustrate that the ops run was on the mild side, and overall continue to show temperatures likely on the cold side of normal.

How that translates in actuality is another matter, but anyone thinking of switching to a hunt for early warmth is likely to be engaging in a chase even more futile than the long running hunt for cold. 

[frosty ground 4,497]

13 minutes ago, swfc said:

Well after looking at this mornings runs and comments it looks a long way to any sustained cold spell.Winter obv isn't over but after weeks and weeks of anticipation I think its becoming hard work to run with much longer imo.

Great post but it's in the wrong thread 

[General Cluster 60,125]

Day 10 has broken with tradition:??

  

[Jon Snow 79,701]

The longer term truly wintry signal has tapered off to almost nothing but that doesn't preclude occasional wintry interludes like this week..it certainly looks like a changeable / unsettled and less cold..dare i say..milder outlook compared to recently / currently.

Edited February 1, 2019 by Frosty.

[Paul White. 342]

S O W (save our winter) This is an emergency can any of the big hitters find a way to save the “Hunt for cold thread” is there anything in the MJO or the QbO that can lead us to the BnQ for shovels etc please help we need some cold charts fast 

[Stu_London 915]

I do think we will get some sort of attack from the East, but probably not until week 3/4 of February or maybe early March.

Not sure if it will be sustained or how severe it will be and a spell that late has to overcome higher solar influence - but I still think it might deliver for some.

 

 

[warrenb 1,490]

The issue is the lobe over Canada, with this here the jet will always be fired up. With the jet fired up then the Azores high is trapped and meanders around the azores to southern Spain. With this pattern we can get no forcing. We either need a cross polar high, or the Canadian lobes to do one.

[lassie23 17,053]

Good call by iapennell when he said the SSW will amount to nothing for the UK despite what the people in the strat thread were saying and what the models were showing

[Optimus Prime 1,040]

1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

 

I mentioned a few days ago that if we are still seeing poor output at the start of February then I would be worried. My concerns are increasing now and if we don't see a change soon I will be raising the white flag and looking forward to Spring. I don't want to consign this winter to the rubbish bin yet but unless we get something really cold for the end of February than we might as well chase some warmth.

So you're throwing in the towel based on what? ...day 7 when a Scandinavian high pressure systems looks set to develop, still at low resolution. That could prove interesting. Oh and there are musings on the grapevine (twitter) from forecasters that the down welling from SSW and a favorable MJO phase bonding may well impact Europe as we head on through February.

I'd be very cautious about cementing the idea that winter is over yet.

Edited February 1, 2019 by Optimus Prime

[Optimus Prime 1,040]

2 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Good call by iapennell when he said the SSW will amount to nothing for the UK despite what the people in the strat thread were saying and what the models were showing

Impact it still very much on the table. Remember the SSW in 2013 didn't really impact things until 1-2 months later, Late Feb/March. In the same situation, we'd be feeling the effects middle Feb.