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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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2 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Computer models have made progress yes but still in these situations they struggle to predict snow ,that's why this morning people are annoyed when there weather app or tv weather forecast based on computer models got it horribly saying snow when it failed to materialise. ...

That's not the models problem it's people.   Anyone who follows the weather with interest and thinks the models have reached a point where they can consistently predict the locations of snow to within 10s of miles hasn't been paying attention. The weather models are a marvel of human endeavour, accept them as the wonderful but flawed tool they are, or enter the profession and work towards improving them, don't moan! 

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45 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Looking at the radar lots of very heavy snow showers around the newcastle area with red echoes.

I've noticed over the last few big cold spells, showers from the east or north east are always a lot heavier there than in yorkshire, anyone else notice this? I can't imagine it to be anything to do with high ground cos newcastle aint that high 

Don't know, but the showers over Tyneside marry up with the occluded front shown on the MetO Fax for 6am:

20190201.0638.PPVA89.png

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Noticed on the 00Z GFS that the Scandinavian High and the Atlantic trough are back for another fight later next week.

3225C08D-8931-4CA9-A5F3-DF738A0AFF0E.thumb.png.55edcc78c927d03bf5b95fb07a360e50.pngE9A42E51-5833-4EA7-B7A3-C25179E644D7.thumb.png.47e33ebcef4eb15248c7c69d0741c98d.png8B8100F9-9609-431B-8147-8BDC839314E9.thumb.png.7021862f80fed340668cd23a3184c20d.png808E2B54-8931-4301-90C3-87EB34B10D25.thumb.png.1cf86689a2bb6134031e63039db8d2a6.png94709099-05A3-4CB0-931A-ADCB337CBC79.thumb.png.2cb05fc689b74702cd4c4ccd30207f14.png73FA02D8-7B2A-4007-8E34-0A59B8F9E454.thumb.png.1eb4c7214d6e7e2d8fc33dec27c81e09.png7BAD1BE5-F02A-48F3-9DCE-5412A01AD26D.thumb.png.d8552dbfacfd2a4151f8c7ccba31a115.png

For once, it would be nice to see the Scandinavian High win the battle! Also without the Azores High causing any funny business.

(Should this sort of scenario develop next week anyway). 

Having said that, congratulations to those in the South who got some white stuff today. 

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3 minutes ago, chris78 said:

That's not the models problem it's people.   Anyone who follows the weather with interest and thinks the models have reached a point where they can consistently predict the locations of snow to within 10s of miles hasn't been paying attention. The weather models are a marvel of human endeavour, accept them as the wonderful but flawed tool they are, or enter the profession and work towards improving them, don't moan! 

Sorry don't agree. Most people rely on weather apps far too much ,computer models are flawed just like the humans who made them ,a useful tool yes but commonsense needs to prevail when for casts especially snow . Sadly commonsense in today's world is sadly lacking as people are glued to there computer screens 

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1 minute ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Sorry don't agree. Most people rely on weather apps far too much ,computer models are flawed just like the humans who made them ,a useful tool yes but commonsense needs to prevail when for casts especially snow . Sadly commonsense in today's world is sadly lacking as people are glued to there computer screens 

Not sure what you are on about. From at least a week out, the GCMs predicted a depression would pass close to the south of the United Kingdom and the associated front would move into southern England and Wales. What else would you have used to forecast that? Seaweed?

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44 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

I think we can all agree that next week is going to become less cold with temps into the upper single digits celsius max, a few areas reaching low double digits c and some rain at times too.

Well, I'm getting 7 degrees today from a Northerly/North Easterly in the coldest part of Winter!

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4 hours ago, lassie23 said:

I think it builds a scandi high by next friday ish. Haven't seen it but that is my guess lol

The models have been pretty consistent, since November, at Day 10...And nowt beats model consistency...?🤔🤔

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2 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Not sure what you are on about. From at least a week out, the GCMs predicted a depression would pass close to the south of the United Kingdom and the associated front would move into southern England and Wales. What else would you have used to forecast that? Seaweed?

Yes but the finite details are subject to massive changes weather apps are a waste of time , 

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Remaining unsettled on UKMO extended with some stronger winds and precipitation

ukm2.2019020800_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.4f1903a6124331c0a275b6f16f946db6.png

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2 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

There's too much dumbing down these days.  When I was younger the weather forecasts on TV were much more technical but didn't try to go into micro detail for a small area of land.  You were told the general weather type for your part of the country, shown synoptic charts, told about the jet stream etc on a daily basis.

Nowadays everyone has access to forecasts on apps from numerous sources with no explanation of probabilistic forecasting and they just look at the app and say "Oh it's going to snow at 3pm" and then get arsey when it doesn't snow til 4.30pm, or sleets at 2.45pm!

The other thing that gets me is when the news says "forecasters are predicting heavy snow/rain/storms" and everyone just goes around like headless chickens saying "Oh it's going to (enter weather type) today!" without any understanding or context.

There's too much data and not enough common sense just as you say.  

 

At last thankyou for your reply at least someone is on the same wavelength as me...totally agree with you.....!

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2 minutes ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Yes but the finite details are subject to massive changes weather apps are a waste of time

Well, I agree with that.

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I don't think the high res models had a very good day yesterday. Most showing a SW only affair for the heavy snow really. I think the HIRLAM 12z was the first to really latch on to the eastern extent, backed up by the 18z but the others were more sluggish even at that stage.  

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26 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Well, I'm getting 7 degrees today from a Northerly/North Easterly in the coldest part of Winter!

And here it has sat around no higher than 3 degrees over past week maybe more bar the odd day of reaching massive 5. Last night and previous night sat around -6/-8 with persistent frost throughout the day. Not much of a difference between both locations.

Edited by Bullseye

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Important to remember that yesterday's Low and snow event were incorrectly modeled for days by all main models.

A week away from the 31st January it was doom and gloom from some here as a Deep low in the Atlantic was modelled to sweep in mild South westerlies.

We ended up with a Channel Low and Heavy snowfall,and a continuation of the cold weather.

We are still in uncertain times,no raging jet stream ,no strong Azores High, all can be staples of a British winter and 'easily modeled" leaving little hope for snow lovers.

Uncertain times can lead to pleasant,short notice surprises.

Keep the faith,  "as the days grow longer,the cold gets stronger'

 

Edited by sunnijim

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35 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Way back when, when we were (almost) all looking fondly forward to the imminent arrival of The Beast, someone - I think it was GTLTW? - suggested we'd be better-off looking for Bigfoot...Well, the news is much better on that particular enterprise: Bigfoot is alive and well...🤔

image.png.3168ea6d0d55634cd896f89c9aa746b6.png

Hahahaha! :oldrofl:...think that was me (not sure who GTLTW is)?, yes far more chance of finding the fury fella than the beast from the east over the last 10 months or so (great picture by the way)...0z GFS gives us a crumb of hope again this morning (again) no doubt before dropping the signal on other runs and ecm 0z compared to yesterday's is relatively poor.

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1 hour ago, Catacol said:

Glad that so many in the south are enjoying snow today after a very difficult winter in terms of The Hunt. Impacts have exceeded expectations in the SW for sure, and with many schools closed folk are enjoying a snow day. Awesome. I’ll try and get gloomy about prospects more often - clearly Mother Nature chose to stick 2 fingers up at me....thanks Mum!!

Longer term watering down of forecasts and projections for a cold February continue. A mid month block is still not out of the question, but I hope snow loving folk make the most out of this week. 

You never know Catacol, Feb 18th 1978   produced an awesome blizzard in our neck of the woods, can't recall it being particularly cold prior to it.  Living in Axbridge at the time,  and we were  buried. :oldsmile:

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Hi, this may have been covered already and maybe isn’t the right place to ask, but can someone explain briefly about the cause of the stalling of the snow in the south west today? I’m in Stroud, Glos, and it just keeps snowing. Running the radar the whole thing is just going round and round - it’s not even that big an area really. That said the SW Regional thread is exceptionally busy as a result! Thanks 

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Not usually one to call "winter is over" but I feel like that's probably largely it, now.

Very little support on any model for proper cold, EC46 has largely backed away from the idea though that model has been about as useful as a kettle in forecasting the weather this winter. Next week looks largely Atlantic dominated and those patterns can typically last a two weeks or more. 

It's been a fun one, an incredibly frustrating one but that's what keeps us coming back, I suppose!

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1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Computer models have made progress yes but still in these situations they struggle to predict snow ,that's why this morning people are annoyed when there weather app or tv weather forecast based on computer models got it horribly saying snow when it failed to materialise. ...

Disagree. I think nearly everyone understands how difficult it is to get snowfall right because of all the variables and quite frankly anyone who gets annoyed that it isn't snowing at the exact minute it says on an app is rather deluded. 

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GFS 6z is the worst op run for quite a while, more indicative of late November than mid February, lets hope just as much as the earlier op runs today were outliers at the other end of the scale. this is Westerly wind outlier.

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2 hours ago, ANYWEATHER said:

Sorry don't agree. Most people rely on weather apps far too much ,computer models are flawed just like the humans who made them ,a useful tool yes but commonsense needs to prevail when for casts especially snow . Sadly commonsense in today's world is sadly lacking as people are glued to there computer screens 

But you are completely missing the point!!!!! It's not the models problem its the people that interpret them and the apps that are created from them! There are many sources that use cheap, poor automated forecasts produced on a mass scale that don't show the finer details of the models themselves.

Yet blame the models.... not the people using it themselves. You always come here to complain about anything forecasting or climate change related... I think you have an agenda.

If you think weather apps are the problem why make such a sweeping statement such as ' the models haven't progressed since the 1950s'? It's misleading people and from the analysis its clearly not true. Micro-scale factors such as the movements of low pressure when there are weak steering currents are always going to be difficult to model and when you consider that, it's remarkable that the models can get a good idea of where the snow will fall beforehand.

I sense a few NW users are angry they missed out on the snow this morning............

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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15 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

GFS 6z is the worst op run for quite a while, more indicative of late November than mid February, lets hope just as much as the earlier op runs today were outliers at the other end of the scale. this is Westerly wind outlier.

Certainly wants to ramp up the Atlantic when it should be calming down. Maybe the increase in the zonal winds in the strat are having a quicker impact on the trop than the large decrease did?

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