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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Be wary of the GFS op:

graphe3_1000_315_147___.thumb.gif.410b0f64b0121c86d73292b1da55a6f2.gif

Little support in the GEFS, well no more than yesterday's small cluster hinting at this.

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22 minutes ago, IDO said:

Be wary of the GFS op:

graphe3_1000_315_147___.thumb.gif.410b0f64b0121c86d73292b1da55a6f2.gif

Little support in the GEFS, well no more than yesterday's small cluster hinting at this.

Better to have op 'potentially' showing the way, rather than like most of the winter relying on the 'mean' and the rest of the ensemble! 

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1 hour ago, Mizzle said:

Yay! That is the first chart I've posted AND publicly tried to interpret. 😁 What with that and the fact I am now under an amber snow warning ( I believe because my location is around the 'pivot' point) I am liking today lots. 👌

Your braver than me.haha

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Winter is running out of time! I'm starting to feel maybe it is time to give up looking for anything really cold down south anyway!

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8 hours ago, Mattwolves said:

Care to elaborate? It delivered in 2010, and 2013 not to me tion last year also, so I fail to see how it scuppers our hopes all the time 🤔

I didn’t say the pv scuppers our hopes all of the time. If I’m not mistaken the word “largely” was used.

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Just now, nick sussex said:

I can see riots developing outside of the ECM headquarters and general chaos as coldies react angrily to yet more fantasy rubbish from the EC46 !😎

 

TBH it looked a bit west based anyway, better than the last run though.

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I know, how can the46 keep churning out these charts but in reality it be the complete opposite 

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

I can see riots developing outside of the ECM headquarters and general chaos as coldies react angrily to yet more fantasy rubbish from the EC46 !😎

 

It’s that good eh ☃️❄️😉

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11 minutes ago, warrenb said:

I know, how can the46 keep churning out these charts but in reality it be the complete opposite 

I think the long rangers have been "seeing " what we have all been expecting to see all Winter, what has overridden the signal is the permanent PV segment in NE Canada.

It appears that no matter what has been thrown at it, it continues to offer no quarter. 

However, we're into February now and as the sun continues it's journey North seasonal wavelength changes over us the best chance of delivering a knock out blow.

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I think even i'm suffering from model fatigue this year. Just seems to have been be a wild goose chase since the end of 2018, with nothing to really show for it!

Doesn't appear to be too much on offer at the moment either. Models not looking especially promising for the next 10 days, by which point we are only going to have 3 weeks of proper winter left. Is there going to be a pot of gold at the end of the rainbow??

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No extra comments needed for EPS this morning,chart speaks for itself. Entering the phase where we can start claiming that GLOSEA and EC seasonal model went bust also forecasts for - NAO and HLB.

It looks like the CFS is turning out to be closer to the mark then European big hitters.

download.png

Edited by jules216
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1 minute ago, jules216 said:

No extra comments needed for EPS this morning,chart speaks for itself

download.png

Yes pretty crap . The ECM and GFS are all over the place though so I’d give it a few days to see what’s the right evolution forward . 

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The issue with the ec 46 is that the charts that get posted are weekly means whereas if you were to view the individual daily means you would see that the pattern has always remained mobile. So what looks like a greeny height anomoly is in fact several wedges through the week .....similarly, a Euro low anomoly isn’t one system sitting there for a week but several dropping in through the period 

once NOAA is up and running properly and people view the verified weekly means, then comparisons won’t be so far away but clearly won’t be as positive as the means showed 

anyway, we now lose the euro low anomoly after the current system pulls away ne and without that, we must have sustained blocking or wedges to our north to divert the jet south without zonal sine waves pattern.  Gefs continue to promote a high anomoly to our nw late week 2 with a scandi low anomoly easing west - we shall see if that gains any traction 

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Looking at the radar lots of very heavy snow showers around the newcastle area with red echoes.

I've noticed over the last few big cold spells, showers from the east or north east are always a lot heavier there than in yorkshire, anyone else notice this? I can't imagine it to be anything to do with high ground cos newcastle aint that high 

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I think we can all agree that next week is going to become less cold with temps into the upper single digits celsius max, a few areas reaching low double digits c and some rain at times too.

Edited by Frosty.
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Glad that so many in the south are enjoying snow today after a very difficult winter in terms of The Hunt. Impacts have exceeded expectations in the SW for sure, and with many schools closed folk are enjoying a snow day. Awesome. I’ll try and get gloomy about prospects more often - clearly Mother Nature chose to stick 2 fingers up at me....thanks Mum!!

Longer term watering down of forecasts and projections for a cold February continue. A mid month block is still not out of the question, but I hope snow loving folk make the most out of this week. 

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58 minutes ago, warrenb said:

I know, how can the46 keep churning out these charts but in reality it be the complete opposite 

Not sure it has been the opposite, Its more of misinterpretation of height anomalies Vs Surface Pressure.

gfs-12-60.pngo look Northern Blocking

 

gfs-0-60.png Not really

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NCEPs monthly forecast for February for the USA looks pretty clueless so uncertainties over the upstream pattern .

A lot of uncertainty although they seemed to think a better chance of warmer conditions in the east and colder further west . Troughing set up central Canada running sw .

Downstream then higher pressure over the east USA, that would see any troughing further east into the Atlantic .

So if by some miracle we get any blocking or even decent wedges of high pressure we’ll have to look to the ne or east more likely for any colder conditions .

I should add the MJO forecasts are all over the place , although we have now scraped into phase 7 .

After that a crystal ball is needed !

I think coldies are beginning to feel a bit deflated , which is understandable .

However I wouldn’t give up hope yet . Admittedly we’re entering the final strait of winter but February even later on can still deliver .

I’m actually encouraged by the huge differences both between runs and the models which suggests the outlook is uncertain .

This is good uncertainty! We need to hope that once they settle down they find the colder solution !

 

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24 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The issue with the ec 46 is that the charts that get posted are weekly means whereas if you were to view the individual daily means you would see that the pattern has always remained mobile. So what looks like a greeny height anomaly is in fact several wedges through the week .....similarly, a Euro low anomoly isn’t one system sitting there for a week but several dropping in through the period 

once NOAA is up and running properly and people view the verified weekly means, then comparisons won’t be so far away but clearly won’t be as positive as the means showed 

anyway, we now lose the euro low anomaly after the current system pulls away ne and without that, we must have sustained blocking or wedges to our north to divert the jet south without zonal sine waves pattern.  Gefs continue to promote a high anomaly to our nw late week 2 with a scandi low anomoly easing west - we shall see if that gains any traction 

Or what this guy said!

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2 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Glad that so many in the south are enjoying snow today after a very difficult winter in terms of The Hunt. Impacts have exceeded expectations in the SW for sure, and with many schools closed folk are enjoying a snow day. Awesome. I’ll try and get gloomy about prospects more often - clearly Mother Nature chose to stick 2 fingers up at me....thanks Mum!!

Longer term watering down of forecasts and projections for a cold February continue. A mid month block is still not out of the question, but I hope snow loving folk make the most out of this week. 

Yes @Catacol this season has been a great learning curve with the interaction between tropics,subtropics and polar, troposphere and  stratosphere. As the season ends and emotions are watered down it is great to use this perspective on weather once we get to the next one lets say in November and start to analyse various seasonal models.  I hope we once get the reversed outcome where all teleconnections and seasonals point to mild and zonal but they will bust and cold winter materializes. It is unfair, that in happens the opposite way when one variable fails and blocking collapses. I do wonder what was so different in atmosphere in 60s for example that the whole Europe had most winters frigid under quasi permanent -NAO

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8 hours ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

If that's what you think then why do you even bother posting in here?

Weather forecasting models have made big progress in recent decades but we only focus on when they fail, rather then when they succeed. If we took your attitude towards things we would be living in caves still.

Computer models have made progress yes but still in these situations they struggle to predict snow ,that's why this morning people are annoyed when there weather app or tv weather forecast based on computer models got it horribly saying snow when it failed to materialise. ...

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What an exhausting 3mths it's been, chasing cold and snow since November.... it started a lot earlier this season and has had soooo much promise and chances but alas, nothing much has come from it at all for me in Ashtead Surrey. I'm thinking I might need some downtime now to relax in some early Spring warmth, lol!!!

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