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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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Oh, and the JMA is interesting too T264, if that can lead to a cold flow in a few frames which I think it would

image.thumb.jpg.a1b81b04bb9548c0f3f286bc508df4dd.jpg

who said the SSW was dead, from it in my opinion!

Edited by Mike Poole

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The scenes are looking dry in here as something called snow is falling somewhere nearby meanwhile in Liphook @kold weather is wondering how this tumbleweed got into his back garden. 

tumbleweed_licnsed_2.thumb.jpg.a5a1445a41b22698cbfdc3a5920bdc25.jpg

All in good jest of course and to keep this post on topic here is a nice northerly form GEFS Pert 4 at +384hrs which is totally going to come off as shown...

GFSP04EU18_384_1.thumb.png.1f823aabce9178740e1f1cb6d42adcb2.png

Edited by Summerstorm

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4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Oh, and the JMA is interesting too T264, if that can lead to a cold flow in a few frames which I think it would

image.thumb.jpg.a1b81b04bb9548c0f3f286bc508df4dd.jpg

who said the SSW was dead, from it in my opinion!

With all that energy going north my money would be on another Greek tragedy :oldrofl:

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2 minutes ago, Summerstorm said:

Scenes in the model thread as something called snow is falling somewhere nearby. 

tumbleweed_licnsed_2.thumb.jpg.a5a1445a41b22698cbfdc3a5920bdc25.jpg

Was that picture taken in Liphook this evening?

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1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But unless you want these slush fest / 2 dayers, then you need the frigid cold to generate convection and also to maintain snowcover.

something to cheer you up..winter storm warning here..30-60cm of snow before the end of Sat and temps dropping below -35c

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8 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Was that picture taken in Liphook this evening?

Caption sorted now not sure a certain individual will be too happy when he sees it 😂

 

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4 minutes ago, cheeky_monkey said:

something to cheer you up..winter storm warning here..30-60cm of snow before the end of Sat and temps dropping below -35c

Can you posts some pictures please . Would love to see proper winter 👍

Edited by ICE COLD

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1 hour ago, ANYWEATHER said:

To be honest 50 years ago we were struggling with predicting snowfall....forward on 50 years there is no difference despite massive computer tech .....

If that's what you think then why do you even bother posting in here?

Weather forecasting models have made big progress in recent decades but we only focus on when they fail, rather then when they succeed. If we took your attitude towards things we would be living in caves still.

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1 hour ago, cheeky_monkey said:

something to cheer you up..winter storm warning here..30-60cm of snow before the end of Sat and temps dropping below -35c

While here just south of the thames a wet damp squib non settling snowfall that was majorly hyped up and was forecast to be 2-7cms in depth. Enjoy your 30-60cms I'm not jealous at all 😂🙈

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1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

If that's what you think then why do you even bother posting in here?

Weather forecasting models have made big progress in recent decades but we only focus on when they fail, rather then when they succeed. If we took your attitude towards things we would be living in caves still.

Obviously it's gotten much much better. But this week has been pathetic regarding where the low would go, how far North, South etc, would we have paid it any attention if it was just standard rain?  In these types of scenarios they're still pretty useless, with cold air over us. Perfect if it looks zonal for a week. Struggling to work out where a low will go a day or two before hand is hardly the stuff of finnese. 

Edited by StormyWeather28

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Coming in here looking for the next carrot as I've failed miserably to catch the last two. Doesn't seem to be much to get excited about.

Any warmth on offer instead? 😈

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Surprised no-one has commented on the 0z GFS yet... 

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2 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Surprised no-one has commented on the 0z GFS yet... 

you might as well be the first lol

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4 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Surprised no-one has commented on the 0z GFS yet... 

Any good?

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1 minute ago, Mizzle said:

Any good?

I think it builds a scandi high by next friday ish. Haven't seen it but that is my guess lol

Edited by lassie23

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6 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

Any good?

Scandi heights from day 8ish...

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3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

I think it builds a scandi high by next friday ish. Haven't seen it but that is my guess lol

Well I am still learning so forgive me if I'm wrong, but this looks interesting to me. Is that a scandi high? And the upper temps are cold? 🤔

gfs-13-168.png

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2 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

Well I am still learning so forgive me if I'm wrong, but this looks interesting to me. Is that a scandi high? And the upper temps are cold? 🤔

gfs-13-168.png

Polish your sledge and get those snow tyers on

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4 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Polish your sledge and get those snow tyers on

Yay! That is the first chart I've posted AND publicly tried to interpret. 😁 What with that and the fact I am now under an amber snow warning ( I believe because my location is around the 'pivot' point) I am liking today lots. 👌

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2 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

Yay! That is the first chart I've posted AND publicly tried to interpret. 😁 What with that and the fact I am now under an amber snow warning ( I believe because my location is around the 'pivot' point) I am liking today lots. 👌

Nice one! Always daunting to do that so congrats for being brave. I still know very, very little but I like giving it a try. The 00z is lovely tbh. Just beautiful seeing the cold flood west.

anim_pzc2.gif

anim_jbs0.gif

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11 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Nice one! Always daunting to do that so congrats for being brave. I still know very, very little but I like giving it a try. The 00z is lovely tbh. Just beautiful seeing the cold flood west.

anim_pzc2.gif

anim_jbs0.gif

Didn't the ecm show an easterly on yesterdays 00z?  

 

 

 

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1 minute ago, Godber 1 said:

Didn't the ecm show an easterly on yesterdays 00z?  

 

 

 

I was too busy on radar snow watch in the regional thread to look at charts yesterday...but if it is two days in a row, on two models, we could be looking at a trend 😁😁

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19 minutes ago, Seasonality said:

Nice one! Always daunting to do that so congrats for being brave. I still know very, very little but I like giving it a try. The 00z is lovely tbh. Just beautiful seeing the cold flood west.

anim_pzc2.gif

anim_jbs0.gif

Thank you ... so very kind of you. And yes, the animated charts are especially beautiful when the blues flood in 😍

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10 minutes ago, Godber 1 said:

Didn't the ecm show an easterly on yesterdays 00z?  

 

 

 

Yes, and the 00z day before that too.

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