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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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To be honest  tonight's models have got it completely wrong with timing ..just give it another 12 hours ,  

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2 hours ago, Bartlett High said:

Yes do you have any charts to back this up ECM T6960🤣🤣🤣

this winter has failed to deliver on so many occasions.  i love winter but this one has me defeated.  Bring on the summer.  at least we can guarantee some sun and warmth whereas in the winter any resemblance of cold and snow is something rare.  definately going somewhere cold and snowy for my hols next winter.  Britain is just not the place for cold and snow and its only going to get worse.

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1 minute ago, ANYWEATHER said:

To be honest  tonight's models have got it completely wrong with timing ..just give it another 12 hours ,  

Care to elaborate?

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Just now, snow freak said:

this winter has failed to deliver on so many occasions.  i love winter but this one has me defeated.  Bring on the summer.  at least we can guarantee some sun and warmth whereas in the winter any resemblance of cold and snow is something rare.  definately going somewhere cold and snowy for my hols next winter.  Britain is just not the place for cold and snow and its only going to get worse.

A bit pedantic i know but "any resemblance of cold"?  have you actually been outside the last few days? the ice in our pond is a few inches thick!

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Tonight's Ecm 12z ensemble mean looks a lot less cold  /  milder next week with a flatter atlantic pattern bringing generally unsettled weather, especially further n / nw.. best of any dry weather further s / se.

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I only really read the outputs from the models and see the lack of cold weather ahead.... is there anything buried in there that could change this or are we down for a pretty boring two weeks ahead come Monday?

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@bluearmy

Week 2 UK high anoms retrogressing to Greenland week 3!! - but west based.

image.thumb.png.2db60c6ee7dfb9e2392ec8660a2c48c9.png

EDIT : This model is obsessed with Greenland heights this winter!!

http://brunnur.vedur.is/kort/ec-ens/2019/01/31/00/ec-ens_nat_taem_gh500_anom.html

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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What really rubs salt into the wound for many on the back of this so-called winter and to date non ssw downwelling event is seeing those nightly updates on newsfeeds re the brutal cold currently sweeping the US. All the polar vortex largely ever does for us is scupper our chances of anything truly decent in terms of ice and snow. Sod’s law!! 😴

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As much as I love the cold and snow, I don't think I'd want what the US has! That is extreme and it's time like this, we need to be thankful for our bland climate. 

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9 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

What really rubs salt into the wound for many on the back of this so-called winter and to date non ssw downwelling event is seeing those nightly updates on newsfeeds re the brutal cold currently sweeping the US. All the polar vortex largely ever does for us is scupper our chances of anything truly decent in terms of ice and snow. Sod’s law!! 😴

Not really the thread for it,but the as a has downwelled, but in North America, rather than this side of the pond. All is not yet lost, there's time yet for a bit more cold stuff...

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2 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

As much as I love the cold and snow, I don't think I'd want what the US has! That is extreme and it's time like this, we need to be thankful for our bland climate. 

I would take that all day, all year around!!

Absolutely gutting - New york is on a lower lattitude than us, but the -15c isotherm practically into the deep south is just rubbing it in.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

I would take that all day, all year around!!

I'm a firm believer in seasons being seasons. Winter 2009/10 was extreme enough for me (I am too young to remember the mid 80s cold fests (I was born 2 weeks before December 1984) and 1991 I have vague memories of), but we had the snow. That's all that matters...snow whether it's -5 or 1c! 

Edited by nn2013

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With the cold pool out east any movement west would be epic

A2C7EAFE-5B74-4A44-ADCE-87C45AC353D8.thumb.png.5b868509ab656796db82fc4d973a0640.png

and it’s not necessary this run

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16 minutes ago, Newberryone said:

What really rubs salt into the wound for many on the back of this so-called winter and to date non ssw downwelling event is seeing those nightly updates on newsfeeds re the brutal cold currently sweeping the US. All the polar vortex largely ever does for us is scupper our chances of anything truly decent in terms of ice and snow. Sod’s law!! 😴

Care to elaborate? It delivered in 2010, and 2013 not to me tion last year also, so I fail to see how it scuppers our hopes all the time 🤔

Edited by Mattwolves

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I do think signals are showing for one more return to the snow in February. I wouldn't rule anything out. 

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3 minutes ago, nn2013 said:

I'm a firm believer in seasons being seasons. Winter 2009/10 was extreme enough for me (I am too young to remember the mid 80s cold fests (I was born 2 weeks before December 1984) and 1991 I have vague memories of), but we had the snow. That's all that matters...snow whether it's -5 or 1c! 

But unless you want these slush fest / 2 dayers, then you need the frigid cold to generate convection and also to maintain snowcover.

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3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

But unless you want these slush fest / 2 dayers, then you need the frigid cold to generate convection and also to maintain snowcover.

That's true, and 2010 proved that as did last year. I'm sure if these signals come off, February will provide. 

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1 minute ago, nn2013 said:

That's true, and 2010 proved that as did last year. I'm sure if these signals come off, February will provide. 

Anyway the GFS is a much better run than the 12z, ridge being thrown up towards Iceland.

image.thumb.png.915d7159a1e48986e7a53562c304fe96.png

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GFS 18Z very close to giving us a bitter easterly in FI

image.thumb.png.994af191e5dae66362813e21b5d22d04.pngimage.thumb.png.890281f7a401a03ca76b2669e4e9bb58.png

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To be honest 50 years ago we were struggling with predicting snowfall....forward on 50 years there is no difference despite massive computer tech .....

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I think we are going to have to endure a weekend of not very interesting output TBH, i am sure we will get output showing blocking again and in run quantity before this winter / spring is out, its whether we see it at T6 or not though is  the question.

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Not really across the output tonight, (it's snowing ), but FV3 18z looking good I would suggest at T204:

image.thumb.jpg.b9ee937b54c8ceb8cb03ff5b7b526956.jpg

Will pick up on longer term prospects when the snow is over!

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2 hours ago, snow freak said:

this winter has failed to deliver on so many occasions.  i love winter but this one has me defeated.  Bring on the summer.  at least we can guarantee some sun and warmth whereas in the winter any resemblance of cold and snow is something rare.  definately going somewhere cold and snowy for my hols next winter.  Britain is just not the place for cold and snow and its only going to get worse.

Cold enough for me. OK no snarw but a beast from the east is a twice in a lifetime thing. Glad i got to tell my kids I told you so. Warmth would be better. If you pay the heating bills, sort of sucks just freezing fog.

 

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1 hour ago, JeffC said:

Not really the thread for it,but the as a has downwelled, but in North America, rather than this side of the pond. All is not yet lost, there's time yet for a bit more cold stuff...

  you’re absolutely right all is not lost yet we have May June July and August. 😇

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