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Posted
  • Location: Cleethorpes, Lincolnshire
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and crisp..
  • Location: Cleethorpes, Lincolnshire
    12 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

    Winters over ain’t gunna happend this year met office backed off models all over the  place fair play accueweather got it spot on for this winter sorry guys but just given up 

    It’s not even February and you have given up ! ?

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    For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

    Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

    Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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    Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
    21 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

    Winters over ain’t gunna happend this year met office backed off models all over the  place fair play accueweather got it spot on for this winter sorry guys but just given up 

    well the next 2 weeks dont look very promising with the icelandic low setup taking over for the first time this season i have to say but it may only last a few weeks and we could still get one more last hurrah for the second half fof febuary

    Edited by igloo
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    Posted
  • Location: Dundee
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, thunderstorms, gales. All extremes except humidity.
  • Location: Dundee

    Back to the models please.

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Can the ecm replica its earlier run, hope so or I think we will be throwing on the towel for this wretched winter. The ec 46 is a waste of time, I guess got the temp snsmoly correct ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    16 minutes ago, Stonethecrows said:

    Wow. I think Sweep himself could manage better grammar and punctuation!

    It's all Sue's fault, for upsetting Ramsbotham...Anywho, the upcoming ECM is not merely big, it's huge...It's massive! And Day 7 is crucial!?

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    Don't expect anything to lift the hopes of an easterly from the 12z ecm tonight...the differences between the 0z and 12z have been like chalk and cheese towards FI in the last day or so.

    Edited by Froze were the Days
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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Maybe have to wait till March again delivered more snow and frigid easterlies then any winter month since Dec 2010?

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    Posted
  • Location: Ely, Cambridgeshire
  • Location: Ely, Cambridgeshire

    I'm surprised so many appear to take these runs so seriously, this time next week there is a moderate to high potential we could be staring down the barrel of a potent easterly...

    Yes the almighty Canadian / N American cold will fire up the jet stream in the short term, but this in turn plays absolute havoc with the charts. On that end all the charts, there is not 1 chart since early January, that can hold its head high, they have been shambolic - and should give the bods/pro's reason to look into exactly how they work, as clearly there is a long way to go in modern day forecasting and programming technology. 

    I'm not being subjective either, they have completely hashed both cold and mild prospects so fair - weren't we looking at a SW'ly hair dryer for this week just 2-3 weeks ago? I'm not promising cold and snow for all but... lets reflect on the above and agree that anything past 78 hours is potentially hogwash. 

     

     

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
    2 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

    Quiet in here! is the ECM that bad?

    I think everyone's either partying or crying 

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    42 minutes ago, booferking said:

    Potentially the biggest EC run of the year coming up can it sniff out downwelling. ??

    Yesterday’s ec op was reverse flow 60/70N for the whole run but it didn’t make any difference for us! The new run dispenses with the easterly of earlier ......I’m reminded of around feb 9 last year just before the SSW and threw out a similar run to this morning ..... clearly it was ahead of itself as the beasterly arrived a week later ......maybe around the 21st ?????

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    Posted
  • Location: Mid Essex
  • Location: Mid Essex
    15 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

    I think everyone's either partying or crying 

    Sorry. Anything happening of note? Must have missed it. Please update. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

    Yesterday’s ec op was reverse flow 60/70N for the whole run but it didn’t make any difference for us! The new run dispenses with the easterly of earlier ......I’m reminded of around feb 9 last year just before the SSW and threw out a similar run to this morning ..... clearly it was ahead of itself as the beasterly arrived a week later ......maybe around the 21st ?????

    So if I’m reading that right , do you think the same could happen this time obviously not as potent as last year beast but some sort of easterly furthering down the line ? The ECM op is just bringing it in too early and it’s just a timing issue? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Southend-On-Sea
    1 minute ago, Snipper said:

    Sorry. Anything happening of note? Must have missed it. Please update. 

    I've no idea... Waiting for all the knowledgeable to come and update me?

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    Posted
  • Location: Huddersfield
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Winters
  • Location: Huddersfield
    1 hour ago, iceman1991 said:

    Winters over ain’t gunna happend this year met office backed off models all over the  place fair play accueweather got it spot on for this winter sorry guys but just given up 

    Okay dokay see you in December kidda. I’ll wait until mid April looking forwards to what the models show next week a bit of cool/cold zonal then after that who knows?

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

    Yesterday’s ec op was reverse flow 60/70N for the whole run but it didn’t make any difference for us! The new run dispenses with the easterly of earlier ......I’m reminded of around feb 9 last year just before the SSW and threw out a similar run to this morning ..... clearly it was ahead of itself as the beasterly arrived a week later ......maybe around the 21st ?????

    PV on its last legs to our NW perhaps

    ECH1-168.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham

    As I said earlier don't expect anything out of the 12z...looks fairly poor

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    8 minutes ago, booferking said:

    ECM says NO to the BEAST more runs needed ....

    Next Winter has great potential.  Solar minimum,  declining wQBO. ...

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    9 minutes ago, booferking said:

    ECM says NO to the BEAST more runs needed ....

    At first glance but is it as clear as that?

     

    wedge of heights over Scandinavia with the Siberian high backing it up

     

    only think missing an undercut

    34AA2D0C-1ED7-4C27-B94A-7E4C4CF3EAF3.thumb.png.bffdf80354d7acba3bde56d862b38d08.png

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    1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

    Don't expect anything to lift the hopes of an easterly from the 12z ecm tonight...the differences between the 0z and 12z have been like chalk and cheese towards FI in the last day or so.

    I’m new to all this. What exactly is FI? I see it mentioned in posts everywhere, I can manage most terms or work them out and understand them, on a basic level but that one is a mystery! 

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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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