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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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12 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

Winters over ain’t gunna happend this year met office backed off models all over the  place fair play accueweather got it spot on for this winter sorry guys but just given up 

It’s not even February and you have given up ! 🙄

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Potentially the biggest EC run of the year coming up can it sniff out downwelling. 😅😛

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21 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

Winters over ain’t gunna happend this year met office backed off models all over the  place fair play accueweather got it spot on for this winter sorry guys but just given up 

well the next 2 weeks dont look very promising with the icelandic low setup taking over for the first time this season i have to say but it may only last a few weeks and we could still get one more last hurrah for the second half fof febuary

Edited by igloo

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Can the ecm replica its earlier run, hope so or I think we will be throwing on the towel for this wretched winter. The ec 46 is a waste of time, I guess got the temp snsmoly correct 😅

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16 minutes ago, Stonethecrows said:

Wow. I think Sweep himself could manage better grammar and punctuation!

It's all Sue's fault, for upsetting Ramsbotham...Anywho, the upcoming ECM is not merely big, it's huge...It's massive! And Day 7 is crucial!🤔

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Don't expect anything to lift the hopes of an easterly from the 12z ecm tonight...the differences between the 0z and 12z have been like chalk and cheese towards FI in the last day or so.

Edited by Froze were the Days

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Maybe have to wait till March again delivered more snow and frigid easterlies then any winter month since Dec 2010🤣

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I'm surprised so many appear to take these runs so seriously, this time next week there is a moderate to high potential we could be staring down the barrel of a potent easterly...

Yes the almighty Canadian / N American cold will fire up the jet stream in the short term, but this in turn plays absolute havoc with the charts. On that end all the charts, there is not 1 chart since early January, that can hold its head high, they have been shambolic - and should give the bods/pro's reason to look into exactly how they work, as clearly there is a long way to go in modern day forecasting and programming technology. 

I'm not being subjective either, they have completely hashed both cold and mild prospects so fair - weren't we looking at a SW'ly hair dryer for this week just 2-3 weeks ago? I'm not promising cold and snow for all but... lets reflect on the above and agree that anything past 78 hours is potentially hogwash. 

 

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

Quiet in here! is the ECM that bad?

I think everyone's either partying or crying 

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In the locals on snow watch

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42 minutes ago, booferking said:

Potentially the biggest EC run of the year coming up can it sniff out downwelling. 😅😛

Yesterday’s ec op was reverse flow 60/70N for the whole run but it didn’t make any difference for us! The new run dispenses with the easterly of earlier ......I’m reminded of around feb 9 last year just before the SSW and threw out a similar run to this morning ..... clearly it was ahead of itself as the beasterly arrived a week later ......maybe around the 21st ?????

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15 minutes ago, Jackski4 said:

I think everyone's either partying or crying 

Sorry. Anything happening of note? Must have missed it. Please update. 

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1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Yesterday’s ec op was reverse flow 60/70N for the whole run but it didn’t make any difference for us! The new run dispenses with the easterly of earlier ......I’m reminded of around feb 9 last year just before the SSW and threw out a similar run to this morning ..... clearly it was ahead of itself as the beasterly arrived a week later ......maybe around the 21st ?????

So if I’m reading that right , do you think the same could happen this time obviously not as potent as last year beast but some sort of easterly furthering down the line ? The ECM op is just bringing it in too early and it’s just a timing issue? 

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1 minute ago, Snipper said:

Sorry. Anything happening of note? Must have missed it. Please update. 

I've no idea... Waiting for all the knowledgeable to come and update me😁

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1 hour ago, iceman1991 said:

Winters over ain’t gunna happend this year met office backed off models all over the  place fair play accueweather got it spot on for this winter sorry guys but just given up 

Okay dokay see you in December kidda. I’ll wait until mid April looking forwards to what the models show next week a bit of cool/cold zonal then after that who knows?

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The models have been horrendously bad this winter beyond 5 days so l don't buy a return to mobile westerly weather for long ,less cold next week then a return to colder zonal or even a feed from the east next month,

What's not to likes in the valley I say

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13 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Yesterday’s ec op was reverse flow 60/70N for the whole run but it didn’t make any difference for us! The new run dispenses with the easterly of earlier ......I’m reminded of around feb 9 last year just before the SSW and threw out a similar run to this morning ..... clearly it was ahead of itself as the beasterly arrived a week later ......maybe around the 21st ?????

PV on its last legs to our NW perhaps

ECH1-168.gif

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8 minutes ago, booferking said:

ECM says NO to the BEAST more runs needed ....

Next Winter has great potential.  Solar minimum,  declining wQBO. ...

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9 minutes ago, booferking said:

ECM says NO to the BEAST more runs needed ....

At first glance but is it as clear as that?

 

wedge of heights over Scandinavia with the Siberian high backing it up

 

only think missing an undercut

34AA2D0C-1ED7-4C27-B94A-7E4C4CF3EAF3.thumb.png.bffdf80354d7acba3bde56d862b38d08.png

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1 hour ago, Froze were the Days said:

Don't expect anything to lift the hopes of an easterly from the 12z ecm tonight...the differences between the 0z and 12z have been like chalk and cheese towards FI in the last day or so.

I’m new to all this. What exactly is FI? I see it mentioned in posts everywhere, I can manage most terms or work them out and understand them, on a basic level but that one is a mystery! 

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