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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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1 minute ago, stripeyfox said:

This last been interests me and if you can forgive an off topic question - the kind of temperature plunge in the US currently - is that possible to happen here in the UK ? I'm not sure how we would cope with a blast like that!

 

I think in those kind of weather patterns in the US there is little moderation of arctic airmasses as they push south through Canada hence the intense cold. When we get a northerly the cold uppers are moderated by the North Atlantic instead. Closest we can get to such extremes is when we get a beast from the east.

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Just now, Quicksilver1989 said:

I think in those kind of weather patterns in the US there is little moderation of arctic airmasses as they push south through Canada hence the intense cold. When we get a northerly the cold uppers are moderated by the North Atlantic instead. Closest we can get to such extremes is when we get a beast from the east.

That's probably just as well! I like a bit of snow but I'd dread to think how the country would cope with something like that!!

 

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2 hours ago, frosty ground said:

19013121_3106.gif
Northern Extent of today's Snow not reaching London

The charts are showing one low , but METO have stated that several smaller lows could spin off this one . Very interesting day or two ahead. 

A lot of snow to come off those charts down here in the S/W  currently in the amber warning area. Good luck to all too hope you get a load too. 

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Looking at the GEFS 6z mean, after the current cold / wintry week it looks like becoming more atlantic driven next week into the following week with alternating milder / colder zonality and some quieter interludes with overnight frosts and towards mid february high pressure builds in bringing increasingly settled conditions with frosts and fog...it's disappointing the longer term very cold signal has tapered off but I still think there is enough encouragement within the ensembles to keep coldies interested in the chase for a potential spell of deeper cold which would salvage something from the twisted mangled burning wreckage of this winter so far!👍

Edited by Frosty.

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48 minutes ago, stripeyfox said:

This last been interests me and if you can forgive an off topic question - the kind of temperature plunge in the US currently - is that possible to happen here in the UK ? I'm not sure how we would cope with a blast like that!

 

Something very similar did happen in December 2010 when a pretty big segment of the polar vortex dived down into the UK straight from the Arctic. Though with us the temperature will always be modified as it travels through a large are of water before reaching the UK. It did give me my lowest 1pm temperature ever of -11C though.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=2010&maand=12&dag=14&uur=0600&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref

 

Run it from the 14th to the 16th and you can see it clearly.

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1 hour ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

I think in those kind of weather patterns in the US there is little moderation of arctic airmasses as they push south through Canada hence the intense cold. When we get a northerly the cold uppers are moderated by the North Atlantic instead. Closest we can get to such extremes is when we get a beast from the east.

Bang on, and the same reason why easterly and north easterly winds can be so bitter for my location because it is an uninterrupted land track from Siberia and the Russian Arctic.

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56 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Something very similar did happen in December 2010 when a pretty big segment of the polar vortex dived down into the UK straight from the Arctic. Though with us the temperature will always be modified as it travels through a large are of water before reaching the UK. It did give me my lowest 1pm temperature ever of -11C though.

 

http://www.wetterzentrale.de/reanalysis.php?map=2&model=noaa&var=1&jaar=2010&maand=12&dag=14&uur=0600&h=0&tr=360&nmaps=24#mapref

 

Run it from the 14th to the 16th and you can see it clearly.

Our time will come again.

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Yes I suspect some of the models are starting to wobble, hence the pronounced uncertainty at 3 day lead time.

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2 hours ago, Catacol said:

Yes really good post. This is the best case mid Feb scenario and if it can come off then we are back in the game for some sustained late season cold. Correct though - need it to become an ongoing signal. I’m wary given the season so far, but if a block establishes mid month over Scandy then I suspect it wouldn’t decay quickly given southerly tracking systems and sluggish westerlies on the back of the SSW.  It has been the call all season long..... (why hasn’t it happened earlier?!) Can we convert in the final quarter? GWO is certainly in the right high orbit to suggest it, and the global momentum budget is indicative of meridional impacts and opportunities for blocking. Worth keeping a close eye.....

February is a month that also typically sees the Atlantic quieten down, if I recall there is also the Buchan cold spell that typically occurs around mid month. Despite it being in mid February the mean CET values for this time are around the lowest we see during the year. February also tends to be a drier month which is indicative of less winds from the Atlantic, although Februaries from the 1990s / early 2000s were an exception.

Also El Nino winters tend to see more in the way of blocked Februaries although this one is very weak. The ensembles are poor but it wouldn't surprise me if this turned out to be a mild blip with the Atlantic eventually being held back. One can hope anyway.

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You know things are going pear-shaped when someone mentions one of Buchan's cold spells.😁

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11 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

You know things are going pear-shaped when someone mentions one of Buchan's cold spells.😁

Anyone remember on here when we were salivating at the prospect of an ice day during the large teapot....(milder noughties)

Edited by winterof79

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1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

Anyone remember on here when we were salivating at the prospect of an ice day during the large teapot....

Alongside Buchan, 1947 and 1963 we will presumable now have March 2018 cited when things look desperate 🙂

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February 1986 didn't start till February...👍

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3pm real time 

And 3pm Euro4 forecasted

Screenshot_20190131-154433_Chrome.jpg

Screenshot_20190131-154459_Chrome.jpg

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18 minutes ago, Jason M said:

Alongside Buchan, 1947 and 1963 we will presumable now have March 2018 cited when things look desperate 🙂

Why when we've got March 2013 to cite?

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UK 120 interesting, almost no PV left in NA

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I can't help but feel that the model Gods are mocking us yet again... Here we are... 10 days away...

But it's nice to see you again ECM ❤️

 

 

 

ECM.JPG

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6 minutes ago, warrenb said:

UK 120 interesting, almost no PV left in NA

Yes is this the opportunity arising

UN120-21.gif

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51 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

You know things are going pear-shaped when someone mentions one of Buchan's cold spells.😁

Do you have anything useful to contribute apart from one liners? It was a valid point as its clearly visible in the CET series.

image.thumb.png.50a5c02d02df1b9ae471222aa56fdd72.png

It is well known that westerlies weaken later on in the winter and into Spring and its a point worth mentioning... given there was a discussion about westerlies being overestimated. Guess it's just going pear-shaped though.... just like Tottenhams hopes of winning a trophy for yet another year.

Edited by Quicksilver1989

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Just as when I thought we are gathering momentum for a decent shot of Scandi block, the models are going down hill today. Icon looked promising but UKMO, GFS and GEFS,even morning EPS have put me in place, the waiting for a HLB model consensus goes on and on. UKMO wants me to throw the laptop out of window 🙂

UW144-21.gif

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