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Paul

Cold hunt - models and chat

Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

00z ECM a cold outlier around t192

graphe_ens3_php.thumb.png.75c2a3a3347971674baa3f25674c0fb5.png

We're all interested in the evolution beyond that from t216-t240 were it meets the mean!

image.thumb.png.dbee1aed0ab3dc2b818b99f9a47cde83.png

Let battle Royal commence.

Edited by Purga

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Just now, frosty ground said:

graphe_ens3.php?mode=0&x=628&y=73&run=0&

If you want to see if its supported look east (somewhere in germany)

Clear outlier.

Just to tag onto your post - ALL without execption Easterlies ( decent ones ) have started off with operational outliers with the ENS suite then following

However all of the failed ones have also started with an operational outlier..

But as least we have the outlier...

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Jet digging south at 210 on the GFS - probably a more realistic timeframe of events than the ECM op, still could get there but think we are looking at mid Feb to be honest before any out and out Easterly.

image.thumb.png.6378063c1366f69790e09e7ae0cd48d9.png

Still decent though.

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Jet digging south at 210 on the GFS - probably a more realistic timeframe of events than the ECM op, still could get there but think we are looking at mid Feb to be honest before any out and out Easterly.

image.thumb.png.6378063c1366f69790e09e7ae0cd48d9.png

Still decent though.

Doesn’t look great at T276 feb 🙁

 

43813EEB-CA83-453E-8CDE-F334382BBAFF.png

Edited by ICE COLD

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2 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Doesn’t look great at T276 feb 🙁

 

43813EEB-CA83-453E-8CDE-F334382BBAFF.png

It will by 384 though.

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5 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

It will by 384 though.

It sort of nearly gets there . Got a feeling there could be some stonkers in the GEFS suit on the 6z . 

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49 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Or a trend setter!

Seagulls have been spotted today in Peterborough for the first time this winter!

Haha

I was going to ask about the seagulls a few days ago.

Good to see they are in position.

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No more posts in here on today's snow event, Be it radar or Meto warnings, Please keep said posts to the dedicated cold spell thread or regionals or they will go missing.

Thank you once again.

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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

It sort of nearly gets there . Got a feeling there could be some stonkers in the GEFS suit on the 6z . 

The GEFS 0z was disappointing, hoping for some flatliners in the 6z, hoping also that the cold clustering still there on the London EPS graph.

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41 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Just to tag onto your post - ALL without execption Easterlies ( decent ones ) have started off with operational outliers with the ENS suite then following

However all of the failed ones have also started with an operational outlier..

But as least we have the outlier...

In my experience easterlies are marginally more likely to happen if the op leads the other members, rather than the other way round (i.e. ensemble support without the op until later)

Both scenarios have a reasonably fair chance of failing so lots more runs needed, however a positive shift towards an easterly today.

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58 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Or a trend setter!

Seagulls have been spotted today in Peterborough for the first time this winter!

Pink Elephants have been spotted in Huddersfield too for the first time ever😉We are trending folks......

Seriously though the Jet buckles in the mid Atlantic at 120Z on the ICON halting the depression allowing a build of heights to our N/E but does not on the GFS 

image.thumb.png.4d52ae3fc5a14924939555c9ac68bff7.png

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image.thumb.png.215ee5a69e549418cdff85b7ee457d1f.png

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ECM buckles the jet

image.thumb.png.14de40029b03a29f86e1fed379095f08.png

GEM late to the party but disrupts eventually

image.thumb.png.fa9c076da58dacb8ce8c85133e2516a9.png

Edited by winterof79

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

If the ICON 06z is correct the Easterlies will be set by 144

Very cold 168-192 but hey thats a long way away...

120z is key in the mid Atlantic Steve

Edited by winterof79

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1 hour ago, TEITS said:

Or a trend setter!

Seagulls have been spotted today in Peterborough for the first time this winter!

That's what we've all been waiting for, Dave...Snaw is nailded!:yahoo:

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Satellite imagery shows an extensive snow cover over northeast France and the Low countries from the heavy snow there over the last couple of days. This acts as an ice sheet suppressing surface temperatures and with the wind direction modelled to flow from the SE it must increase the chances of wintry precipitation to southern coastal counties. Also 06Z GFS precipitation chart has the snow area slightly further south than the previous run now very close to the south coast. It is fairly rare to get snow actually laying on the south coast however parts of the south rise up to around 800 feet so from an imby prospective all to play for.

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image.thumb.png.d7ff726885862391d9c5c828f60fc749.png
GFS and GEFS saying no to an easterly...... For now. 

 

Signs of a repeating pattern of what we just had,

Edited by frosty ground

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26 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

image.thumb.png.d7ff726885862391d9c5c828f60fc749.png
GFS and GEFS saying no to an easterly...... For now. 

 

Signs of a repeating pattern of what we just had,

I don't know if I am right, but I see a small pattern in this winter modell and synoptics...

GFS shows something either cold or warm in his FI-Cards, EC doubts it, but then switches lanes while GFS begins to drop it and makes a 180° turnaround, and when it comes in the +144-168h spectrum, wich is mostly EC homeland, EC stands out as the winner and GFS as the looser

Just my opinion 🙂

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55 minutes ago, 492 said:

Satellite imagery shows an extensive snow cover over northeast France and the Low countries from the heavy snow there over the last couple of days. This acts as an ice sheet suppressing surface temperatures and with the wind direction modelled to flow from the SE it must increase the chances of wintry precipitation to southern coastal counties. Also 06Z GFS precipitation chart has the snow area slightly further south than the previous run now very close to the south coast. It is fairly rare to get snow actually laying on the south coast however parts of the south rise up to around 800 feet so from an imby prospective all to play for.

You are right I am on the French belgian border north of Lille and we have a good snowcover 10cms+ and it is still -2 degrees. (-5 this morning). We have  an amber warning from Meteo France for 5 cms more to come overnight. Good luck for the southern coastal counties.

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If this easterly does come off, would the longevity of the cold spell be affected by the length of time it has taken to get there? I'm thinking in comparison to last year's fairly quick response to the SST which was great for snow and low temperatures but blasted through and beyond us very quickly. 

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06z swingometers.

So we now have a clear picture next week, it is very likely turning milder as the swingometers for the 5th of February show

image.thumb.png.e61e45a0935c410ca33c5918c0d1cbfa.png

Almost all mild in there and nothing of interest to pick really. The GFS ens in recent runs have also been poor for February 10th. Only one decently cold option appears in there (P16), many show westerlies/ southwesterlies. At this point I'd start raising the white flag but the ECM also shows an easterly and that was the first to pick up on the beast from the east last year (GFS hinted at it then dropped it before it appeared on the ECM). So I'm not giving up just let but the ensembles are poor so far today.

image.thumb.png.1db875e74be23d5daaed2aa9f9ab91ff.pngimage.thumb.png.3f6156d7fadfb567fb167b95045f0746.png 

The global temperature anomaly patterns also highlight my frustrations, large areas of much colder then average temperatures over North America and Eurasia, never seems to be us does it?

image.thumb.png.5195df5edfe3dcc063fd029247321019.png

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2 minutes ago, Quicksilver1989 said:

 

The global temperature anomaly patterns also highlight my frustrations, large areas of much colder then average temperatures over North America and Eurasia, never seems to be us does it?

image.thumb.png.5195df5edfe3dcc063fd029247321019.png

This last been interests me and if you can forgive an off topic question - the kind of temperature plunge in the US currently - is that possible to happen here in the UK ? I'm not sure how we would cope with a blast like that!

 

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