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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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Posted
  • Location: Surrey Hills - Holmbury St Mary 184asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and Thunder
  • Location: Surrey Hills - Holmbury St Mary 184asl
    22 minutes ago, Great Plum said:

    So winter finishes on January 30th? Still another month of meteorological winter to go!

    And astronomical winter doesn't end until 21st March,,,,, plenty of time

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL

    Just when we thought we were about to enter a colder phase the models are showing the opposite.

    When the forecasters look retrospectively at this Winter it will be interesting to hear why it went wrong and what lessons will be learned. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester

    GFSp brings another snow event with the sliding low a bit further West than GFS 18z

    gfs-2-114.png?18gfs-0-114.png?18

    The low doesn't form on UKMO or ECM so it will be something to look out for in tomorrow's output

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    16 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    CMON - Another go?

    image.thumb.png.3ee09c9144b505def679bb9d06341176.png

    BA just posted in the other model thread and said the clusters are looking encouraging. Hopefully MWB will post them soon . 

    Edited by ICE COLD
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    BTW, just for the benefit of newcomers, the strat post was half in jest, could another warming event happen? yes, could it still deliver? yes, but in meteorological spring more likely, this has nothing to do with the ECM eps graph, if anything that graph is more to do with the last SSW.

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    I will pre-empt it - 30 odd % say hello brutal cold.

    image.thumb.png.b7c3a9b9a926de121e7be87a6c6bacea.png

    What cluster would you say is best feb ? Cluster 2 ?? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    11 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

    What cluster would you say is best feb ? Cluster 2 ?? 

    Difficult to say but its between 2 and 5, 5 actually has an Easterly flow at that point, but 2 with that WAA occuring, could deliver a sustainable Greenland high.

    But i would rather the mean of individual clusters was shown, rather than one individual representative.

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    32 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Difficult to say but its between 2 and 5, 5 actually has an Easterly flow at that point, but 2 with that WAA occuring, could deliver a sustainable Greenland high.

    But i would rather the mean of individual clusters was shown, rather than one individual representative.

    Anyone fancy revisiting the 2018 BFTE . Purb 20 goes for it large at around day 10 . Similar to cluster 2 on the ECM ?? 

    FD7AD526-5951-4F92-8A71-D0A51E3004BF.png

    1753F148-F43C-4751-B1C4-6BA866D44DF4.png

    52336488-D756-4EAB-926F-6AD55F353C34.png

    395AF318-E1C6-4B97-85FC-2E6E50AA6E58.png

    948284D4-8F2E-4C38-A39B-907B6FA13CB3.png

    A14DCBA7-3904-47E1-A558-726136A22342.png

    8F38AFE4-6F49-45A4-842D-D6B9605D4163.png

    5FD25665-32F8-44C8-967D-5158E277B3DA.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Yes seen them IceCold - need to grow now.

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    Posted
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWY WINTERS AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS WITH THUNDERSTORMS.
  • Location: BIRMINGHAM B6 ASTON WM. About 112MASL 367.36FT
    1 hour ago, Mattwolves said:

    And I would mention the strat folk on here have been amazing this winter, don't need to name names, they no who they are. I and many others have learnt so much from them, and just to think you could spend a fortune on a course to learn these types of things, and net weather have supplied them to us for free!! So any criticism they may well receive as things stand will be unduly unfair, sometimes things just don't work out, the met Office are testiment to that fact. Either way I hope they just continue to share there undoubted knowledge with us on the way forward. 

      I am sorry to hath to say this but the Met office gets a lot of criticism and right Lee so they are after all the pros one thing I have noticed is that when some person goes against the majority on here at net whether they do seem to face the firing squad most of the time   how ever I do totally 100% agree with the rest of your post and excellent post if I say so 

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    Posted
  • Location: portsmouth uk
  • Weather Preferences: extremes
  • Location: portsmouth uk

    I said yesterday on the southern regional thread that id punt for Scandinavian Icelandic block.

    And I see them beautiful beautiful charts and bingo there it is just like magic.

    Tonight it be gone lol.

    Na I think the troposphere starting to feel the last effects of the ssw.

    If we get the block then there's no doubt we could see cold march to.

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    Posted
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL
  • Location: Nutley, East Sussex 120m ASL

    well the 192 chart for the ecm is allot better than I was exspecting. I exspect this trend to grow as the high pressure is going to be modelled stronger and the low pressure weaker. 

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Ecm 00z..

    Signal sniffing again..

    Going the way of yesterdays 6z gfs..

    Watch this become a solid feature!

    @noted responces

    @backloaded winter

     

    ECM1-192 (3).gif

    ECM1-192 (3).gif

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Streamers please

    19020115_3100.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Very tasty.

    ECM1-216 (3).gif

    ECH1-216 (4).gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

    192 and 216 on the ECM are looking superb!  Huge cold pool heading our way... hopefully there again on the 12z's?  

    image.thumb.png.c3c812a78323d882870c1080c09f8a61.png  image.thumb.png.2e61d2a54c074430b17f0e24143bc6cf.png

    image.thumb.png.2e4bf9762d497836c275a783d9d97ddf.png image.thumb.png.a1e713bea346de802701184d29fb4070.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.

    ECE1-216 (3).gif

    moar-cat.jpg

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    That is one gooood luckin chart peeps 

    ECM1-216.gif

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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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