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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    3 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

    Your black line goes through my house, I am asking to push it north please.

    Thank you.

    The gradients shout for that..

    A 70/100mile shunt-northwards...

    But thats the ABSOLUTE limit. On this 1.

    Edit i'll fill my boots..

    Im in the camp 4 'perhaps' the best bits.?

    Edited by tight isobar
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    For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

    Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

    Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
    12 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

     weather for next week is a total crap fest.

    That sums up this winter so far but dare I say the background signals are still looking good and there's lots of pppppotential!??

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    Posted
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Summer Sunshine / Winter Snow
  • Location: Wombwell, South Yorkshire (75m / 246ft ASL)

    No comments on the 12z runs?  That bad or is everyone in the regionals obsessing over the impending snowmageddon?!  ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
    19 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

    Your black line goes through my house, I am asking to push it north please.

    Thank you.

    Not mine - believe this is a paid model or something. 

    Was tweeted by Essex Weather, I had no say in it - it’s just what it shows. Of course on the day could be slightly north etc.

    im just happy because I have 3 clumps of snowflakes which means heavy snow?

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    I preferred the forecast from Those Who Cannot Be Named, myself, as it predicted snow (and sleet!) for the whole of East Anglia, for Thursday night and Friday...?:yahoo:

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Location: Manchester
    4 minutes ago, Kentish Snowman said:

    No comments on the 12z runs?  That bad or is everyone in the regionals obsessing over the impending snowmageddon?!  ?

    A bit of both!

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
    1 hour ago, edo said:

    Well after a much snaw starved period for the east coast of Scotland it is excellent to see a surprise trough pointing right at us on the fax. Hopefully the flow is stong enough to push some hefty showers inland and give us the snaw we crave. Its a bad show when London has had more than Perth. 

    20190130.webp

    I hope you're right, I think we might be left disappointed though. We're talking about tomorrow and all forecasts+models point towards dry and sunny conditions. So looks like the snaw will have to wait ? maybe until next winter at this rate

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts

    T168 pub run the pv is in bits, so that’s good but apart from that it’s ?

    9103BD9B-DC04-4C3E-A31F-176A314D3FA8.png

    Edited by ICE COLD
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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex

    How are the background signals looking for Feb? ?????

    Models are dull as ditchwater at the moment.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level

    Have we missed the jackpot with this year's SSW! Viewing pics of USA and temperatures of - 30, even lower, I realise this what some of you crave. But speaking from experience of harsh conditions, it really ain't much fun. Granted at first its like heaven, but after several days it really does effect your life, not to mention the vast loss of life to the elderly and vulnerable. The fact the vortex seems to have delivered to the states, does that mean it's a done deal for us? I wouldn't bet against it with still the best part of 7 weeks of winter still to go. Worth noting this is our second warming event Inside a year, maybe that's coincidence, maybe not, we enter a low solar minimum, and currently the planet continues to warm. I think this could be the beginning of a run of many intense SSW events, and scenes that you see in America could be soon something you will be seeing at first hand. So the hunt for cold thread may soon become the hunt for extreme cold thread. Something I feel strongly about, you may not all agree, but onwards and upwards for the rest of this winter, our time may be sooner than some of you think!! ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    7 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    Have we missed the jackpot with this year's SSW! Viewing pics of USA and temperatures of - 30, even lower, I realise this what some of you crave. But speaking from experience of harsh conditions, it really ain't much fun. Granted at first its like heaven, but after several days it really does effect your life, not to mention the vast loss of life to the elderly and vulnerable. The fact the vortex seems to have delivered to the states, does that mean it's a done deal for us? I wouldn't bet against it with still the best part of 7 weeks of winter still to go. Worth noting this is our second warming event Inside a year, maybe that's coincidence, maybe not, we enter a low solar minimum, and currently the planet continues to warm. I think this could be the beginning of a run of many intense SSW events, and scenes that you see in America could be soon something you will be seeing at first hand. So the hunt for cold thread may soon become the hunt for extreme cold thread. Something I feel strongly about, you may not all agree, but onwards and upwards for the rest of this winter, our time may be sooner than some of you think!! ?

    I doubt anybody here wants an extreme event like that. Just a decent cold spell with snow that isn’t marginal. It’s harder to take for many this year because they were led up the garden path by various proclamations of the signals promising cold.

    Another uninspiring chart!

    586602E1-06E8-4024-B66B-4E8B3356E95D.png

    Edited by Djdazzle
    Typo
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    Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

    Vortex in tatters and we still get the lobe of death and this hideous flat chart, typical... have to laugh at this point ? 

    586602E1-06E8-4024-B66B-4E8B3356E95D.png

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    Posted
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
  • Location: bingley,west yorks.81 absl
    2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    Vortex in tatters and we still get the lobe of death and this hideous flat chart, typical... have to laugh at this point ? 

    586602E1-06E8-4024-B66B-4E8B3356E95D.png

    Yes,absolutely vile chart for cold and snow if it's what you're after.

    Just not our year and personally ready for writing this winter off tbh.

    Hope I'm wrong though but it'd have to be a massive turnaround next couple of weeks which is very unlikely imo.

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    Vortex in tatters and we still get the lobe of death and this hideous flat chart, typical... have to laugh at this point ? 

    586602E1-06E8-4024-B66B-4E8B3356E95D.png

    I think you're forgetting the background signals??

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    Posted
  • Location: Edinburgh
  • Location: Edinburgh
    1 minute ago, lassie23 said:

    enjoy tomorrow because winter is over after this week and the potential for crap increases potentially next week. 

    I'm ready for it, and up in eastern Scotland we don't even have tomorrow to look forward to. 

    If any changes do take place, I can't see it happening before mid February, and honestly I'm tired of waiting

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    17 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    How are the background signals looking for Feb? ?????

    Models are dull as ditchwater at the moment.

    12z GFS wasn’t bad ?

    3EEF1D33-0D63-401E-A46E-0863C145988D.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
  • Location: Reading/New York/Chicago
    1 hour ago, chris55 said:

    Nice little reminder from Ian on how det-op runs in the mid term can be, and often are, open to change.

    Obviously if there is clear cut synoptic pattern in the offering with cross model support, like a raging jet or stagnant Bartlett in situ then we may place more trust in the mid term Det runs.   But alas our current output is full of uncertainty.

    B0D57B9F-CF97-4E71-8468-9CAC1AF30A62.thumb.png.4eb77c61fc8c75b006b7f91f604da615.png

    To be fair to the ECM, it got the 500 heights pretty close in the grand scheme of things. It largely picked up the general flow, but was slightly out with the little wave over Europe which has made a big difference with the track of the low at the local scale.

    Goes to show that the 500mb charts were fairly reliable 7 days out in this case.

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    Posted
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
  • Location: County end Oldham 202 m Above sea level
    10 minutes ago, edinburgh_1992 said:

    I'm ready for it, and up in eastern Scotland we don't even have tomorrow to look forward to. 

    If any changes do take place, I can't see it happening before mid February, and honestly I'm tired of waiting

    I was just going to post something similar TBH- of course i wish the best for as many as poss for tomorrow but in all honesty there is only so many times i can look at that big purple headed warrior to our NW, iv'e been staring at it since November and its painful for coldies- the only positive about it is Trump making a buffoon of himself again by suggesting GW isn't happening because of the intense cold in the US..

    Edited by northwestsnow
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    Posted
  • Location: Swansea
  • Weather Preferences: snow, snow and more snow
  • Location: Swansea
    3 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

    I think you're forgetting the background signals??

    its always background signals.  knowing our luck everything will finally fall into place......in April...and all we will get is cold rain and people saying if only this had happened in February.  well i don't want it in April.  This country sucks for any decent winter weather.

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    Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
    39 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

    Not mine - believe this is a paid model or something. 

    Was tweeted by Essex Weather, I had no say in it - it’s just what it shows. Of course on the day could be slightly north etc.

    im just happy because I have 3 clumps of snowflakes which means heavy snow?

    I'm wondering what the four flaked diamonds mean.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    13 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

    I doubt anybody here wants an extreme event like that. Just a decent cold spell with snow that isn’t marginal. It’s harder to take for many this year because they were led up the garden path by various proclamations of the signals promising cold.

    Another uninspiring chart!

    586602E1-06E8-4024-B66B-4E8B3356E95D.png

    I hear what your saying, the current output is dire. But as you will be aware it can flip on its head overnight. Still think there well be a late response this year, a bit like 2013, not everybody's cup of tea I no, then there's the worry that everything back up in the trop and strat is reverting back to normal now, so no chance! Personally I wouldn't rule out further warmings, we can still get it even during March things can become severe, even though the sun at this point is higher! 

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    4 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    I hear what your saying, the current output is dire. But as you will be aware it can flip on its head overnight. Still think there well be a late response this year, a bit like 2013, not everybody's cup of tea I no, then there's the worry that everything back up in the trop and strat is reverting back to normal now, so no chance! Personally I wouldn't rule out further warmings, we can still get it even during March things can become severe, even though the sun at this point is higher! 

    And I would mention the strat folk on here have been amazing this winter, don't need to name names, they no who they are. I and many others have learnt so much from them, and just to think you could spend a fortune on a course to learn these types of things, and net weather have supplied them to us for free!! So any criticism they may well receive as things stand will be unduly unfair, sometimes things just don't work out, the met Office are testiment to that fact. Either way I hope they just continue to share there undoubted knowledge with us on the way forward. 

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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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