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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    17 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

    Maybe something a bit more typical for a UK winter next week with an alternating pattern between some cooler and milder days

    12z ECM

    ECMOPEU12_120_2.thumb.png.03d2377719fe9375c85a84596f5c42c4.pngECMOPEU12_144_2.thumb.png.e0fdb43344801a7e0f77ec6cd15530f6.png

    ECMOPEU12_168_2.thumb.png.33eadf3bb8e116db30d73b7c099579fa.pngECMOPEU12_192_2.thumb.png.07bc90141bd6442db2097407e7f64507.png

    ECMOPEU12_216_2.thumb.png.da910f1fab27387401478d545cd4499b.png

    Exactly like the 10 day trend forecast earlier, the siberian high unable to make any progress, story of the winter. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    What does the atmosphere have to do  to  the Canadian lobe to get it to pish off

    anim_rvc4.gif

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
    7 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

    What does the atmosphere have to do  to  the Canadian lobe to get it to pish off

    anim_rvc4.gif

    Yep - disappointing 12z ECM.  Let’s see where it sits within the ensemble suite.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    4 minutes ago, mulzy said:

    Yep - disappointing 12z ECM.  Let’s see where it sits within the ensemble suite.

    Can the Scandi ridge repel the attack.

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    Posted
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl
  • Weather Preferences: mediterranean summer
  • Location: near dalmellington E ayrshire 302m asl

        9 minutes ago, SLEETY said:  Exactly like the 10 day trend forecast earlier, the siberian high unable to make any progress, story of the winter.   you no when things look grim when we expect the siberian hp to somehow march 2000 miles west we get this discussion every year on this topic  and every year it delivers nothing

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    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
    32 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    Tbf-the ssw has been a little of a delayed deport..(in part)..

    But i'll stake..the ramifications 4 our part will soon be felt..

    Its a wait n, win m8..trust me..?

     

    More later 

    I hope your right mate because I for one can’t handle another fail lol

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    Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
    17 minutes ago, igloo said:

        9 minutes ago, SLEETY said:  Exactly like the 10 day trend forecast earlier, the siberian high unable to make any progress, story of the winter.   you no when things look grim when we expect the siberian hp to somehow march 2000 miles west we get this discussion every year on this topic  and every year it delivers nothing

    You mean one run showed a link up and now you think that’s the only way of pressure rising to our north east

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    Posted
  • Location: West Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme cold & snow
  • Location: West Sussex

    A pretty blocked looking ECM mean, especially from the NH perspective.

    image.thumb.png.9149204d59f2e1e205fb11a7d81c9bca.png

    Plenty of interest still, I would wager ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
    5 minutes ago, Purga said:

    A pretty blocked looking ECM mean, especially from the NH perspective.

    image.thumb.png.9149204d59f2e1e205fb11a7d81c9bca.png

    Plenty of interest still, I would wager ?

    Ext EPS also pretty interesting.  The mean doesn’t quite give the perfect configuration for us but Greenland heights evident again.  Clusters will be worth viewing.

    Edited by mulzy
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    Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
    24 minutes ago, SnowLover87 said:

    Is this polar vortex going to become more common and could we see more larger ones.  Day After Tomorrow comes to mind

    Worse.....much worse.....the day after yesterday...

     

    BFTP 

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    Posted
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summers Snowy Winters Stormy Autumns
  • Location: Luncarty (4 miles north of Perth 19m ASL)

    Well after a much snaw starved period for the east coast of Scotland it is excellent to see a surprise trough pointing right at us on the fax. Hopefully the flow is stong enough to push some hefty showers inland and give us the snaw we crave. Its a bad show when London has had more than Perth. 

    20190130.webp

    Edited by edo
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    Posted
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex. 68m asl
  • Location: Rayleigh, Essex. 68m asl
    25 minutes ago, Disco_Stu said:

    What amazes me with this thread, is when somebody posts a comment promising perfect conditions, then they receive loads of 'likes'. In reality though, very little wintry weather has actually occured and yet the promises continue. 

    Seriously, some people read these threads both to learn from more knowledgable members and to also read realistic comments.

    Yeh fair point but when some of our my knowledgeable posters spend their time saying what they think, based on their assessment, if it reads logically, I’m happy to give it a like, 

    doesnt mean I think it will come true but it’s a kind of thanks for their input.

    of course saying it will snow 12 feet in Carlisle guarantees results, so come on Carlisle, like this post...

     

    In all seriousness the South of England looks great tomorrow, so I hope those below this M4 boundary enjoy what is coming

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    Posted
  • Location: Washington - Tyne and Wear
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Washington - Tyne and Wear
    8 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

    Latest in regards of tomorrows snowfall.
    2 flakes indicates (moderate snow) 3 flakes (heavy snow)

    DyLzuieXgAEr_q1.jpg large.jpg

    Some juicy showers making inroads on the north eastern coast there too so something for northern areas perhaps?

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, UK
  • Location: Essex, UK
    1 minute ago, P-M said:

    Some juicy showers making inroads on the north eastern coast there too so something for northern areas perhaps?

    They have marked the Northen extent of the low, but of course during the day tomorrow it may still change!

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    Posted
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
  • Weather Preferences: Summer:sunny, some Thunder,Winter:cold & snowy spells,Other:transitional
  • Location: Newbury, Berkshire. 107m ASL.
    3 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

    ECM continues the trend to something a bit less cold as we go through next week. It'll probably be mid week before the milder air gets to all parts

    ECMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.90b96a5a86961e9077fc9100c12d4e7e.pngECMOPEU12_144_2.thumb.png.59f9d470cc09c4618875c63e6e239b58.png

     

    If at all. But yes, sadly for the cold hunters who seem to have had to hunt proper cold all winter long, next week will likely see a return to westerlies and some rain around, complete with near to average temperatures. Ho hum but at least travel disruption will be much less of an issue.

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    33 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

    Latest in regards of tomorrows snowfall.
    2 flakes indicates (moderate snow) 3 flakes (heavy snow)

    DyLzuieXgAEr_q1.jpg large.jpg

    What about no flakes?....asking for a friend 

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    Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
    37 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

    Latest in regards of tomorrows snowfall.
    2 flakes indicates (moderate snow) 3 flakes (heavy snow)

    DyLzuieXgAEr_q1.jpg large.jpg

    Your black line goes through my house, I am asking to push it north please.

    Thank you.

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    Posted
  • Location: Royston , Herts
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW
  • Location: Royston , Herts
    3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    What about no flakes?....asking for a friend 

    This is where the BBC have the snow by tomorrow night Tim . Still think we’re get a good covering again . 

    1CA8F5D1-56AF-4555-B79F-EB33638CCA2B.png

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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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