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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
    2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    Anyone up for a hunt for spring!!!! Seriously if this comes off I won't ever look at a model again, well, not a weather one anyway! ?

    cfs-0-492.png

    Spring????

    Check the sourcing...

    That WOULDNT feel like spring!!!

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    For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

    Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

    Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

    Posted Images

    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
    2 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

    Anyone up for a hunt for spring!!!! Seriously if this comes off I won't ever look at a model again, well, not a weather one anyway! ?

    cfs-0-492.png

    That's the cfs model, youmight as well make your own prediction, better chance of getting it correct ?

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    32 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Interesting fax charts for T36hrs and T48hrs.

    The occlusion gets to London and grinds to a halt.

    The western end starts heading se and it’s possible that parts who saw snow to rain then see a change back to snow before the occlusion finally clears se.

    Snow amounts could be very good in areas which stay close enough to the occlusion on its northern flank throughout that timeframe .

    Voila Nick

    19020106_3012.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl

    Amber warning for Mid Wales methinks 9 hours of snow 

    19013118_3012.gif

    19020109_3012.gif

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Summer heatwaves and electrical storms, and fidgid Arctic type winters
  • Location: Sedgley 225metres above sea level
    6 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    Spring????

    Check the sourcing...

    That WOULDNT feel like spring!!!

    My point being as spring approaches just watch the pattern change 

     

    9 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    Spring????

    Check the sourcing...

    That WOULDNT feel like spring!!!

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
    Just now, Astral Goat Juice said:

    Looks like a great oppor-tuna-ty to me. 

    Oh for God's hake!

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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    36 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

    What would that mean for London exactly? Snow or will their be any rain?

    Looks good for London I think ?

    Yes certainly. The occlusion does grind to a halt over London then will eventually move back se.

    The coldest dew points will be on the northern flank of the occlusion . Even at this stage there is room for small changes re the occlusion .

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    Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL

    Something that’s troubled me all winter that I need to get off my chest

     

    It’s spelt SNOW ??? ❄️

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth

    So as far as tomorrow is concerned, I think that's it for major changes now. Generally, northern extent in a line London to Birmingham and carry on to North Wales, but possibly slightly south of that, and the other question is where it becomes more marginal on the coast towards the south west. Inside that zone, you will need a sledge, outside that zone, not tomorrow but don't rule out surprises over the next few days - snow is like that ?

    EDIT - possibly getting slightly north of Birmingham overnight (just had a better look!) but not a huge fall even if it does. 

    Edited by Man With Beard
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    Posted
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
  • Location: NR LOURDES SW FRANCE
    25 minutes ago, shaky said:

    Nick one question with that band that far south why does euro4 break out another seperate band over the midlands?is that a trough?

    That’s a bit strange . Not sure!  The UKMO fax chart doesn’t show anything .

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    9 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

    Yep.

    Looks a bit dud darn sarf. Euro4 is usually spot on at this range. It's been quite impressive lately especially with today's snow up North. 

    Midlands and Wales sweet spots.

    Yes and the Northern extent is and won't be settled until it moves up the country hence the Amber warning cover parts or south and west Yorkshire. Not confident at all though 

    19020103_2_3012.gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    ECM continues the trend to something a bit less cold as we go through next week. It'll probably be mid week before the milder air gets to all parts

    ECMOPEU12_144_1.thumb.png.90b96a5a86961e9077fc9100c12d4e7e.pngECMOPEU12_144_2.thumb.png.59f9d470cc09c4618875c63e6e239b58.png

     

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Ecm 12z lining up huge scandi block !!??

    ECH1-144 (1).gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
    4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    Ecm 12z lining up huge scandi block !!??

    ECH1-144 (1).gif

    Yes I was wondering about that too, here T168 chart

    image.thumb.jpg.4b812a6519742bb5dd9c52ebc8e2dc6e.jpg

    Might not align perfectly to start with but good to see in reasonably reliable timeframe.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    9 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    Ecm 12z lining up huge scandi block !!??

    ECH1-144 (1).gif

    Yuk

     

    ECH1-168.gif

    Hang on I'll wait a frame......

    Edited by winterof79
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    Posted
  • Location: Cottingham
  • Weather Preferences: Cold Snowy Winters, Hot Thundery Summers
  • Location: Cottingham

    Meto forecast radar for the snow event...

    image.thumb.png.9d530951c1f20a385b8ebefa5a4154d6.png  image.thumb.png.7dd8e8aa13456af80c433b72e7faad03.pngimage.thumb.png.b6c45fdfc4f8947a918b02eca54050b4.pngimage.thumb.png.fdfc5137ffd4e4ab736971310890864c.pngimage.thumb.png.ad102de5eb78a28e058b6994b5a7dbd2.pngimage.thumb.png.e63e36f142db7d0fa8f58ea4295696af.png  

    The swingometers are firming up on a mild /anticyclonic outlook unfortunately. Things may stay cold if we get the high moving over us or to the north like with P4.

    image.thumb.png.eb2311f9dc0b92afc33c0b1ccf446a33.pngimage.thumb.png.ef759e380f9e7e0ec5111b20e2492a22.png 

    So we move the focus further out yet again. The swingometers now show a mixed picture  but little in the way of really cold runs but that can change rather quickly. P4 is what we want to look for though as that leads to a cold easterly further down the line.

    image.thumb.png.e9ab37945cac94464609eb28cd163226.pngimage.thumb.png.a279a6e6ab41ef23c7ff45f4b01be780.png 

    Globally the temperature anomaly is rather strange as the US shows a really strong La Nina pattern during a weak El Nino. With notable warmth across the whole eastern North American coast we should see the Atlantic quieten down but we need to also get rid of the Euroslug. Please can we have a Scandi high to advect that Siberian cold westwards!

    image.thumb.png.82d667ada8a2bdb2c33a73d58b31338e.png

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington

    Maybe something a bit more typical for a UK winter next week with an alternating pattern between some cooler and milder days

    12z ECM

    ECMOPEU12_120_2.thumb.png.03d2377719fe9375c85a84596f5c42c4.pngECMOPEU12_144_2.thumb.png.e0fdb43344801a7e0f77ec6cd15530f6.png

    ECMOPEU12_168_2.thumb.png.33eadf3bb8e116db30d73b7c099579fa.pngECMOPEU12_192_2.thumb.png.07bc90141bd6442db2097407e7f64507.png

    ECMOPEU12_216_2.thumb.png.da910f1fab27387401478d545cd4499b.png

    Edited by Summer Sun
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    Posted
  • Location: Medway - 57m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hot summers, snowy winters and thunderstorms!
  • Location: Medway - 57m ASL

    I love a pun as much as the next person, but it's getting disruptive so please cease and desist.

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    Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl
    4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

    ECM1-216 (2).gif

    Looks better on the European gif

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    Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl

    Have to be honest here but this winter has been full of promise with all the background signals in the world and whilst it’s still got a month maybe 2 if you count March to run it’s just very tiring now, yeah it will be great if we get the elusive easterly in the next couple of weeks but just seems to be hinting at it all the time only for the signal to disappear again. I for one will soon be looking forward to summer as it’s just been full of hope and garden paths. Just my opinion though

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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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