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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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2 minutes ago, terrier said:

Well just seen the country file forecast for the week ahead and let’s just say how underwhelming. Few wintry showers across the country on Monday night into Tuesday. Then a cold feel with a some frosts. Then back into westerly winds by Friday and then becoming milder into the weekend. 🤢

What were you expecting it to show?

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4 minutes ago, shaky said:

That LOOKS like a cold and snowy run nationwide on the ecm!!!only milder day is at 120 hours even then at the surface it will.probably be cold before even colder air and snow sweep south at 144 hours!!

Away from Scotland, I don't think there is much snow for anyone on that entire EC run, taken at face value of course.  Some hills in Northern England & Wales see a little, but otherwise, I'm struggling to see anything other than coastal wintry showers.  The PPN shown to sweep south on Saturday looks of rain for most of England to me and any PPN over England come day 9/10 looks at best, a wintry mix of rain/sleet and wet hill snow.  Just my opinion taking that EC Det run at face value.

 

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Just now, SLEETY said:

yes the models show LESS  cold weather for weekend then much colder again.

He did say then colder again after the less cold blip Sleety 

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Snow crossing most of the country a week tonight/tomorrow on ECM.

Although it was a disappointing end to the easterly, the milder period at the end of this week and the weekend is getting smaller.

098EB3DC-7120-4B37-A39E-2F9729DC41E6.png

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7 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

have you lost your decipherous tongue TI😜

Netweather's brand new Universal Translator has come online!😁

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Decent snow event on the 12z ECM, nothing too outrageous but certainly 2-4 inches across most areas it seems. Quite a few GFS ensembles have something similar as well at a similar time, indeed some even have a low forming on the front which really does pump up the totals.

Afterwards plenty of snow showers moving into the western part of the country, especially NW England and W.Scotland.

After 240hrs, LP over W.Greenland probably going to head off SE again and we will get yet another attempt to throw up a more solid ridge to the north, which IMO has a much better chance of working out.

Edited by kold weather
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Ecm looks a very good run if you want a snow event and take the kids sledging 

We dont need a beast from the east 

The  failed beast has been erased out of my mind 

Edited by Lampostwatcher
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1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Decent snow event on the 12z ECM, nothing too outrageous but certainly 2-4 inches across most areas it seems. Quite a few GFS ensembles have something similar as well at a similar time, indeed some even have a low forming on the front which really does pump up the totals.

Afterwards plenty of snow showers moving into the western part of the country, especially NW England and W.Scotland.

Thought it was just me that was reading the charts in that way - its a v good ECM run 

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17 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

I keep reading since December we missed the first bite of the Cherry🍒, I'm sure we've missed about 10 bites of that cherry🍒.. I'm surprised theres any of that cherry left.. 🍒🍒🙈

Yes, but I think that the cherry tree still has a few cherries left on it though, but they will be going rotten pretty soon if we don't start picking some.:olddoh:

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4 minutes ago, Roger J Smith said:

I am posting pictures of a mysterious white substance that covers the landscape -- it is possible that you may encounter this before March. 

20181231_155958A.jpg

I think that Roger knows a thing or two, so I say yes, and probably when we least expect it. I'll be back when the Easterly prospects get reinstated once again, which means tomorrow. NWP output upgrades next week, methinks.

Edited by gottolovethisweather
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7 minutes ago, AWD said:

Away from Scotland, I don't think there is much snow for anyone on that entire EC run, taken at face value of course.  Some hills in Northern England & Wales see a little, but otherwise, I'm struggling to see anything other than coastal wintry showers.  The PPN shown to sweep south on Saturday looks of rain for most of England to me and any PPN over England come day 9/10 looks at best, a wintry mix of rain/sleet and wet hill snow.  Just my opinion taking that EC Det run at face value.

 

I respect your opinion but I think it's going to be one of many contrasting other opinions ...

In my opinion it's never even worth focusing on any sort of precipitation possibilities beyond maybe 5 days anyway - it's just too far away. Nail down the actual pattern first, then temperatures (uppers and lowers) and then we can worry about the precipitation by looking out of the window to see if it's coming down!

I do take heart in the fact that the 'milder' spell back end of this week looks like a mere temporary affair - question is is that going to be a mild spell placed in the middle of two pathetic, half hearted cold spells which looked as though they were going to offer so much - or is any potential cold spell beyond next weekend going to finally be one of note!

 

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50 minutes ago, shetland islands said:

The 60 N zonal winds turned westerly again yesterday, so the PV is in recovery mode. Not good. See the Met guys tweet in the tweet thread. 

Takes ages for the PV to recover.

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17 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Please let us do the moderating. We don’t need discussion on what should or shouldn’t be in the thread. Thank you

Unfortunately, the problem with the ECM, is there is too much moderating done by the Sea. not giving us any cold uppers!

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10 minutes ago, bradythemole said:

Snow crossing most of the country a week tonight/tomorrow on ECM.

Although it was a disappointing end to the easterly, the milder period at the end of this week and the weekend is getting smaller.

098EB3DC-7120-4B37-A39E-2F9729DC41E6.png

According to the ECM, Dundee has changed its name to "Kozaksville". How peculiar.

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The ecm looks cold to me from 168

ECU1-168.thumb.GIF.2ae994f91de48155d4f52e29b67acb47.GIFECU0-168.thumb.GIF.7eb72e4431814570664b9a72dbe40998.GIF

ECU1-192.thumb.GIF.14194d5036c18e1890a78563e488696d.GIFECU0-192.thumb.GIF.9104398af0ee87f5cf22f6fa8712e53d.GIF

ECU1-216.thumb.GIF.76b267d0cccd34c6c2f090b9b99cd676.GIFECU0-216.thumb.GIF.7d934e58093a8a619670a540f31c19a3.GIF

ECU1-240.thumb.GIF.28adcfa4980e8ff88cf7134a8f5b1f1c.GIFECU0-240.thumb.GIF.758d3efee24ee4e0c7b3e3ad0df6ed7a.GIF

maybe even a dumping in the SW at day ten with that little low but subject to change of cause.

 

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12 minutes ago, Broadmayne blizzard said:

He did say then colder again after the less cold blip Sleety 

plus  he did hint possible snow could come down the east coast by  Thursday

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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Unfortunately, the problem with the ECM, is there is too much moderating done by the Sea. not giving us any cold uppers!

You will be digging yourself out by day 10 if EC det is anywhere near right matey 🙂

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Just now, northwestsnow said:

You will be digging yourself out by day 10 if EC det is anywhere near right matey 🙂

A bit of an exaggeration - those charts have verified many a time in the last 8 years and all you get at 600ft is 2 inches of slush, surrounding areas at 1000ft get 4 foot drifts though.

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Sure there’d be a little backedge snow even across low levels further south and east 1-3C air temps DPs around freezing I think this situation is being underestimated this NW’ly has more punch to it than we usually see, GFS may be OTT but may be nearer to reality than some.

35748BC4-1D97-4A9F-BAD5-7F0EBC44F109.thumb.png.73619ef1c1c8cabf6c45a2fee1ceb227.pngFC0002E5-0B16-44FE-B633-B43B719441CC.thumb.png.7f5f91c3640ba7702634bb03a75552c6.png871A94E5-4368-4BF9-8509-609240C46758.thumb.png.6bf0447d52c98cbbd2a509eda995eee4.png

What follows front is a very cold PM flow ECM has sleet/snow showers from Wirral making it all the way to Home Counties a severe frost Wednesday morning certainly overall a wintry week. 🙂 

756AA381-D586-4317-A376-FE3E66AE6840.thumb.png.8774d8278c42942d0887105aa166b58b.png1C01F468-D578-42CE-91AB-6FE30B155462.thumb.png.8e8310133f6ef7c253d7fa7a2c8c99cc.png

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

A bit of an exaggeration - those charts have verified many a time in the last 8 years and all you get at 600ft is 2 inches of slush, surrounding areas at 1000ft get 4 foot drifts though.

Me, exaggerate ? Never 😄

We got this Feb ...

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