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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Paywall site -

SE lighter depths 1-5Cm ( not marginal - continental dewpoints )

The S/SE will really need a wave along tr front to pep it up...

Every day is a school day, thanks Steve.

Any update on East coast Ireland (Dublin) possibly missing out?

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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7 minutes ago, Rocheydub said:

Every day is a school day, thanks Steve.

Any update on East coast Ireland (Dublin) possibly missing out?

South & East Ireland doing very well however similar to the UK a sharp cut off point for the front

More southerly corrections could well take you out the game !

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15 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Not sure if its been raised-

06z ECM another jump south

So much so Wales nearly missing out ( south wales v.good ) - big Depths for Devon & West Somerset !

 

just caught a forecast from those who cant be named, we have gone from 1-5cm yesterday to 5-10cm, still could change though.

 

fromey

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6 minutes ago, snowfish1 said:

How's it looking for south east Steve 

Ask in your regionals there's some bitter people about today ??

 

 

Only kidding - very good probably.

Edited by P-M
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Here is the 06z ECM at 06z Friday so Steve doesn't have to answer a million "where will it snow" questions:

indexT6IXO2KK.thumb.png.ba19621bcce99b71a4b1000f341725b4.png

Blue is +2 inches, broadly 1-2 inches as Steve says. I'd say the ECM is probably SOUTH of the mean at the moment, most of the higher resolution models are a smidge north of that.

Edited by kold weather
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25 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

Yes, it's gone South again, and looks good for high ground & Wales.

South Coast looks OK, SE Looks marginal at best. Band looks weak & fragmented. 

South Wales, Bristol, and South of the Midlands look favourable. 

Only decent snowfall of this Winter for my 'place' (so far, at least) and i'll be at Brum airport tom eve! You couldnt make it up!?

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3 hours ago, chionomaniac said:

For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3

GFSOPNA00_3_2.thumb.png.56d2ab8d22acf93f6d2b5fd9893547a8.png

 

Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just underway, and winter is not over by a long way.

Then go and read up a bit about SSW's so next time you make a sweeping statement you are doing so from a position of greater knowledge.

Thank You

The SSW is clearly not a bust for the US, but we've yet to see favourable High Latitude Blocking for Britain & Ireland and the latest Met Office update is backing off anything occurring in February although we may see continued wedges as opposed to proper blocking.

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2 hours ago, nick sussex said:

Nothing ! ?

Yes we have been here before many times . 

I think its different this time with the SSW before they was no high pressure in place when the SSW was effective on the 22nd of December 18.  to our East this time there is high pressure to our East. 

I think high pressure to our East is a big player when it comes to the SSW and increasing its effects.

If the current models project an easterly another beast is possible with lots of snow and with  cold breaking temps. I think  this winter will end with memories for lots of us.

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4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

The SSW is clearly not a bust for the US, but we've yet to see favourable High Latitude Blocking for Britain & Ireland and the latest Met Office update is backing off anything occurring in February although we may see continued wedges as opposed to proper blocking.

Indeed.  I was reading about the extreme cold in the U.S.  So I came here expecting to a raft of apologies to the knowledgeable posters who have discussed SSW events, from those of you who have been criticising them, I havent seen any apologies, maybe they are there and I have missed them........ 

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7 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The 06z gefs are very amplified. lhe mean looks like three bites to get to a greeny ridge but the individual members reveal a wide spread of solutions  - most with blocky solutions

Whilst i am happy that the output has improved, i am always cautious when most members show blocking but they are all in different locations, that even includes when there is a large clustering below -10c, it to me is indicative that the suite doesn't really know, much better than when they are all mild of course.

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1 hour ago, Steve Murr said:

South & East Ireland doing very well however similar to the UK a sharp cut off point for the front

More southerly corrections could well take you out the game !

Hey Steve, 

Sorry for another "what about here question" but how are we looking in Cork City ATM? Some runs were showing a lot latest not so much so we really are on the nails edge! :) 

thanks

 

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27 minutes ago, chris78 said:

Indeed.  I was reading about the extreme cold in the U.S.  So I came here expecting to a raft of apologies to the knowledgeable posters who have discussed SSW events, from those of you who have been criticising them, I havent seen any apologies, maybe they are there and I have missed them........ 

The problem is, having searched most of the US newspapers on this PV lobe entering the US, I can find none that attribute it to the SSW.

From the BBC:

"Forecasters are attributing this cold snap to a sudden warming above the North Pole, caused by a blast of hot air from Morocco last month.

This weather system split the polar vortex and caused it to drift south, Judah Cohen, a winter storm expert for Atmospheric Environmental Research, told AP news agency.

The world's leading scientists have said that climate change is primarily human-induced and can lead to harsher winters."

source https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47047089

Maybe what Dr Cohen was talking about: anim_odp3.gif

So my conclusion is that it is not as simple as saying the SSW caused this PV lobe south, but a far more complicated process of variables, likely including the downwelling, warm air in late December pushed into the Arctic region, along with an NH profile enabling the PV lobe to shift south?

It is really hard for us amateurs to get some coherence to such weather anomalies!

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3 minutes ago, IDO said:

The problem is, having searched most of the US newspapers on this PV lobe entering the US, I can find none that attribute it to the SSW.

 

 

A quote from Amy Butler

Quote

This is just a reminder that the type of cold we will see this week, where a chunk of the tropospheric "polar vortex" gets cutoff from the main flow, can happen without a split of the stratospheric #polarvortex. Though I think the split increased the chances of it happening.

 

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1 minute ago, IDO said:

The problem is, having searched most of the US newspapers on this PV lobe entering the US, I can find none that attribute it to the SSW.

From the BBC:

"Forecasters are attributing this cold snap to a sudden warming above the North Pole, caused by a blast of hot air from Morocco last month.

This weather system split the polar vortex and caused it to drift south, Judah Cohen, a winter storm expert for Atmospheric Environmental Research, told AP news agency.

The world's leading scientists have said that climate change is primarily human-induced and can lead to harsher winters."

source https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-47047089

Maybe what Dr Cohen was talking about: anim_odp3.gif

So my conclusion is that it is not as simple as saying the SSW caused this PV lobe south, but a far more complicated process of variables, likely including the downwelling, warm air in late December pushed into the Arctic region, along with an NH profile enabling the PV lobe to shift south?

It is really hard for us amateurs to get some coherence to such weather anomalies!

Cheers good post, however I dont think the knowledgeable ssw posters ever said anything other than it is one factor among many other contributing factors.   If this once in a generation US cold spell isnt at least in part a result of SSW, its a hell of coincidence.     

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25 minutes ago, chris78 said:

Cheers good post, however I dont think the knowledgeable ssw posters ever said anything other than it is one factor among many other contributing factors.   If this once in a generation US cold spell isnt at least in part a result of SSW, its a hell of coincidence.     

once in a generation?..sure area around Chicago and the great lakes are mighty cold..but that's only a small part of the US

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Gfs..wants to turn snow bk 2 rain southern coastal counties..but a few miles inland..the snow machine gets going...

Midlands south...with a grade of slightly warmer air backing in under the feature..already mentioned areas

36-574.gif

30-574.gif

Edited by tight isobar
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5 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

I am surprised how quite people are considering the 12z are running?

or has it shown people who expected snow aren’t now? Funny when that happens?❄️

In the regionals avoiding all the one upmanship and IMBY nonsense in here ?

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