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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

Message added by Paul

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Great to see everyone's enthusiasm going through the roof this morning on the back of some positive runs, especially the 6z runs, it's put a spring back in my step, as Mike Poole said last night, let's get the chase back on, so I will finish with one of my main models and say, I told ya so, the Indian model ain't tobe sniffed at, just look at that cold pool knocking on the doorstep!!!! 😅👆

ncmrwf-0-222.png

Edited by Mattwolves

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That 6z looks very Feb 2012 ish!

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It's certainly an interesting trend and not without support, though the 6z is known for it's progressive nature. It does look like the deep cold over the US will relax somewhat and with models trending towards lifting the PV out of Canada a little (though not completely) this does reduce the pressure downstream somewhat and could finally allow heights to rise to our North-East.

Winter is not over!

touch2.png

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12 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Certainly looks like the Models are now taking the SSW effects into serious consideration now! Was always due end of February, Some great Model watching to come I would think..

I was wondering how long it would take. 

Also does it help having a high pressure in place to enhance the effect of the SSW..

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25 minutes ago, kold weather said:

 

Remember my 5-10th call about some form of HLB, and BA talking about a Scandi high...

And me mid Jan talking of an early Feb Scandi HP rather than the Greenland heights touted at the time 😉

Must admit though, I had kinda lost faith until very recently i.e last day or so...

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10 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

And me mid Jan talking of an early Feb Scandi HP rather than the Greenland heights touted at the time 😉

Must admit though, I had kinda lost faith until very recently i.e last day or so...

TBH, once the very wide split SSW (which happened following that wave 2 second wave last year failed to materialise this year), we were always going to struggle to get a Greenland high, which is such a shame because, if we had got one in Mid - late Jan, i really think we could have been looking at a 1947 ending to winter.

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GEFS much quicker on route to scandi high as well - big change for so early in the run.

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All a bit pah....

Another chase for an elusive Easterly...after one run...still we have 30 days of winter left so who knows? The SSW just hasn’t produced this side of the Atlantic, I can’t see anything changing that.

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1 minute ago, nick sussex said:

What joy !

After a week of model drama with the Channel Low and then the next one moving se we now have the infamous trigger shortwave around day 5.

We need that to behave clear se cleanly and then we have a solid foundation to get to the easterly .

What could possibly go wrong🤔

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1 minute ago, snowice said:

What could possibly go wrong🤔

Nothing ! 😎

Yes we have been here before many times . 

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6 minutes ago, DCee said:

All a bit pah....

Another chase for an elusive Easterly...after one run...still we have 30 days of winter left so who knows? The SSW just hasn’t produced this side of the Atlantic, I can’t see anything changing that.

Same as anything, just because it hasn’t delivered proper blocking/proper snow so far doesn’t mean it won’t. But cool story bro.

Edited by Weathizard

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4 minutes ago, DCee said:

All a bit pah....

Another chase for an elusive Easterly...after one run...still we have 30 days of winter left so who knows? The SSW just hasn’t produced this side of the Atlantic, I can’t see anything changing that.

Nothing like a bit of glass half empty to bring the forum back down, I would actually say there are indeed 50 days of winter left, if you go by the book. And dcee, last year delivered very late! So to rule it out at this stage is, premature to say the least!! 😒

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Euro4s take on Thurs night and accumulations by Fri 

00999BE0-348E-460D-A1F6-B60B0AD7581F.gif

EFFDA5FC-CE06-43E6-A7F8-B20DA6AA09DE.gif

Still snowing 6hrs later (Fri lunchtime) in a line from central wales to Ipswich as the front stalls and fizzles out 

 

22CA3486-D41F-47DA-96C6-2D49A0D6B8C6.jpeg

Edited by Tim Bland

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5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Euro4s take on Thurs night and accumulations by Fri 

00999BE0-348E-460D-A1F6-B60B0AD7581F.gif

EFFDA5FC-CE06-43E6-A7F8-B20DA6AA09DE.gif

Still snowing 6hrs later (Fri lunchtime) in a line from central wales to Ipswich as the front stalls and fizzles out 

 

22CA3486-D41F-47DA-96C6-2D49A0D6B8C6.jpeg

19020106_3006.gif

Not much on it

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13 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

We literally have a snow event tomorrow which has been caused by the SSW which lead to jet tracking south.

How can you possibly say that it hasn't affected us? Might not have lead to a easterly with -20 uppers but to say it hasn't affected us is absurd.

Normal winter isn’t it? In fact less snow and cold than average. Absurd indeed...

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for the last few days many of us (me included) have been hung up over yesterday and tomorrow's wintry event with page after page of 'will it snow in xxxx?'.....'upgrade/downgrade at T24'.....and other north/south debate/arguments....It is so refreshing to see the model hunt for cold thread getting back on track and looking at the longer term, and with longer term output looking promising, it's good to see the mood lift in here and hopefully the pettiness and point scoring stopping (at least for a while) 🙂

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52 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3

GFSOPNA00_3_2.thumb.png.56d2ab8d22acf93f6d2b5fd9893547a8.png

 

Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just underway, and winter is not over by a long way.

Then go and read up a bit about SSW's so next time you make a sweeping statement you are doing so from a position of greater knowledge.

Thank You

Hi

I thought the current US cold was from a wave train from Asia with the W Pacific Hadley Cell building up that trough till it is forced east, a transient feature?

I did not think it was from the downwelling per se, although I agree this finally looks like it is incoming in early Feb.

My thoughts are that variables within the trop pattern have exerted more than expected on the SSW downwelling, maybe the omnipresent Atlantic forcing, and that is why the drip-drip early propagation, rather than full-on action? Certainly, some head-scratching from the experts in this field as to why the forecast was not as predictable as hinted at in late December?

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