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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

HANG ON - HANG ON!  -  cold pool building in situ with that potentially trigger shortwave over Scandi!!!

image.thumb.png.2b93eb75727ac0d85f75dc7c3f0a2ed3.png

 

MET thinking  not so far away now.

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

I’ve been sitting hear watching quietly. Is there gonna be an easterly ?? Charts getting very interesting and it’s not FI. ??

2F04A22C-54D3-4A5A-9E92-1DE14B28CD31.png

E7603012-A98E-4503-93C7-C59F24FF87D2.png

Well I'm still putting my faith in Those Who Cannot Be Named. And, hopefully (now the short-rangers seem to be 'smelling the coffee'!) my faith is about to be rewarded...?

Usual caveat (don't measure your snow until after it's fallen) applies!?

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1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Trigger low moving West through Europe.. here comes the Easterly!

LOW.thumb.png.b6fe0dc6bd945089ab1247bd6c7da7d2.png

Now this is an awesome chart - plenty of snow about to pile in

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I've not been paying too much attention to the longer range but certainly that's an interesting 06z. It does feel like we are moving into one of those classic slowly changing trends, each run shifts it just a little more favourable for us.

As I think a few of us said recently if an easterly can flip to mild within 144hrs, there is no reason why the opposite can't happen, less likely perhaps, but more than possible.

Remember my 5-10th call about some form of HLB, and BA talking about a Scandi high...

Edited by kold weather
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2 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

When you look at the 00z runs and think of throwing the towel in, and along comes the 06z........ I don't think anyone is going anywhere for now.... Gripping stuff this model watching. You just can't tear yourself away.

To be fair ECM gave us a big nudge

image.thumb.png.ba222dfd2938da38ff42c8153a7fc021.png

GFS

image.thumb.png.6b2245e33d6127d3832ae3865e9c453d.png

UKMO has trigger low

image.thumb.png.03602d1b6b2de948b1cae9fa3ae4a990.png

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The wedge of heights from the Atlantic joining forces with the Siberian High is the de facto block:

gfseu-0-234.thumb.png.af69e9ad90044139773d14921a33e63c.png

The Siberian High opening the doorway to Arctic type cold!

Just need to see these types of charts on the 0z and 12z as the 06z has lately been the most progressive with HLB'ing, and is the worst of the runs verification wise.

Edited by IDO
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6z is what I envisioned a few days ago but dropped as the ECM and GFS starting looking less favourable. Not saying it's right or anything but the signs for a Scandi ridge have been evident on the eps and gefs. 

Easterlies are strange beasts they can crop at D7 the disappear at D4 caution is advised but writing off winter may not be the best.

 

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2 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

What is a 'trigger low'?

It's a term that was I believe made up on this forum.

It describes an area of low pressure that tracks just right to open up the flood gates to much colder air

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4 minutes ago, IDO said:

The wedge of heights from the Atlantic joining forces with the Siberian High is the de facto block:

gfseu-0-234.thumb.png.af69e9ad90044139773d14921a33e63c.png

The Siberian High opening the doorway to Arctic type cold!

Just need to see these types of charts on the 0z and 12z as the 06z has lately been the most progressive with HLB'ing, and is the worst of the runs verification wise.

It is, but not by a huge amount:

cor_day5_HGT_P500_G2NHX.png

But of course the whole evolution depends on the low over Scotland at T120 tracking down the North Sea and into Europe:

gfs-0-120.png?6

 

On the 0z, it a was much weaker affair and tracked NE into the Norwegian sea. Be interesting to see what the para does at the same time.

 

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