Cold hunt - models and chat

[winterof79 6,862]

2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

HANG ON - HANG ON!  -  cold pool building in situ with that potentially trigger shortwave over Scandi!!!

 

MET thinking  not so far away now.

[ICE COLD 8,840]

Come on baby ?

[winterof79 6,862]

Just now, ICE COLD said:

Come on baby ?

Good morning Mr Downwelling...….I've been expecting you

[General Cluster 60,059]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

I’ve been sitting hear watching quietly. Is there gonna be an easterly ?? Charts getting very interesting and it’s not FI. ??

Well I'm still putting my faith in Those Who Cannot Be Named. And, hopefully (now the short-rangers seem to be 'smelling the coffee'!) my faith is about to be rewarded...?

Usual caveat (don't measure your snow until after it's fallen) applies!?

[Met4Cast 11,828]

Trigger low moving West through Europe.. here comes the Easterly!

[Ali1977 9,585]

1 minute ago, Daniel Smith said:

Trigger low moving West through Europe.. here comes the Easterly!

Now this is an awesome chart - plenty of snow about to pile in

[Drifter 557]

2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Good morning Mr Downwelling...….I've been expecting you

Tell him he's late while you're at it!

Edited January 30, 2019 by Drifter
Typo

[ICE COLD 8,840]

She is in ???

[Paul_1978 3,158]

When you look at the 00z runs and think of throwing the towel in, and along comes the 06z........ I don't think anyone is going anywhere for now.... Gripping stuff this model watching. You just can't tear yourself away.

[Yarmy 7,618]

23 minutes ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

Been waaaay too busy with work these past 7 days to have time to look at the models (how do people find so much time to be on here, morning, noon and night??? lol); clearly I haven't missed anything. While we are currently experiencing a standard fayre winter spell of colder than average weather with some frost and wintry showers, it certainly isn't the SSW winter nirvana that many were predicting. And now it looks like the 850 uppers will be on the rise (just look at those toasty GEFS for February) and you really have to ask the question, when do the diehards finally admit defeat and throw the towel in? 

It has been a winter off day 10 promise all the way, and surely it's just straw clutching now. None of us have any idea what later February will bring but after the SSW bust, maybe it's time to walk out of the casino.

Exquisite timing. 

 

[kold weather 10,122]

I've not been paying too much attention to the longer range but certainly that's an interesting 06z. It does feel like we are moving into one of those classic slowly changing trends, each run shifts it just a little more favourable for us.

As I think a few of us said recently if an easterly can flip to mild within 144hrs, there is no reason why the opposite can't happen, less likely perhaps, but more than possible.

Remember my 5-10th call about some form of HLB, and BA talking about a Scandi high...

Edited January 30, 2019 by kold weather

[Vikos 1,463]

Feb 2018 reloaded patterns?

Edited January 30, 2019 by Vikos

[ICE COLD 8,840]

Lovely stuff from the 6z . It’s coming I’m telling ya ?

[ICE COLD 8,840]

Now look what’s coming as back up . ???

[winterof79 6,862]

2 minutes ago, Paul_1978 said:

When you look at the 00z runs and think of throwing the towel in, and along comes the 06z........ I don't think anyone is going anywhere for now.... Gripping stuff this model watching. You just can't tear yourself away.

To be fair ECM gave us a big nudge

GFS

UKMO has trigger low

[Met4Cast 11,828]

6z Looks rather like the 00z EPS majority cluster..

[Stonethecrows 515]

51 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

nope it definitely looks by that chart that we will miss out yet again, just hope there is a correction 

We? Looks a fair bit of snow around on that chart?

[mountain shadow 9,420]

5 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Exquisite timing. 

 

Right on queue given the Met Office long ranger, can we count it down to T+0?

[ICE COLD 8,840]

Day 10 ?

[IDO 8,077]

The wedge of heights from the Atlantic joining forces with the Siberian High is the de facto block:

The Siberian High opening the doorway to Arctic type cold!

Just need to see these types of charts on the 0z and 12z as the 06z has lately been the most progressive with HLB'ing, and is the worst of the runs verification wise.

Edited January 30, 2019 by IDO

[Snowman. 3,522]

6z is what I envisioned a few days ago but dropped as the ECM and GFS starting looking less favourable. Not saying it's right or anything but the signs for a Scandi ridge have been evident on the eps and gefs. 

Easterlies are strange beasts they can crop at D7 the disappear at D4 caution is advised but writing off winter may not be the best.

 

[Polar Maritime 16,257]

Certainly looks like the Models are now taking the SSW effects into serious consideration now! Was always due end of February, Some great Model watching to come I would think over the coming weeks..

Edited January 30, 2019 by Polar Maritime

[Mizzle 508]

7 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

UKMO has trigger low

What is a 'trigger low'?

[Met4Cast 11,828]

2 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

What is a 'trigger low'?

It's a term that was I believe made up on this forum.

It describes an area of low pressure that tracks just right to open up the flood gates to much colder air

[Yarmy 7,618]

4 minutes ago, IDO said:

The wedge of heights from the Atlantic joining forces with the Siberian High is the de facto block:

The Siberian High opening the doorway to Arctic type cold!

Just need to see these types of charts on the 0z and 12z as the 06z has lately been the most progressive with HLB'ing, and is the worst of the runs verification wise.

It is, but not by a huge amount:

But of course the whole evolution depends on the low over Scotland at T120 tracking down the North Sea and into Europe:

 

On the 0z, it a was much weaker affair and tracked NE into the Norwegian sea. Be interesting to see what the para does at the same time.