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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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2 minutes ago, Nick F said:

Been a good winter for spotting individual model bias, to name but a few from many - GFS op with its short-term bias of pushing frontal systems too far north with lows moving SE to the SW of the UK, but also more mysteriously the EC high res keeps churning out mild outliers 

A7810F4A-FF00-4ADE-9699-67FC548B4537.thumb.png.347a063368bce119b5e42983dac4edcf.png

Although a slight warming trend at 850 hPa in the means into next week, this may not be truly reflective on the ground, so wouldn’t be surprised we stay cold at the surface well into next week, with shallow highs keeping an inversion, perhaps NW turning milder.

 

Yes, subtle variations in the phasing of mini-ridges and LP systems can make a big difference in upper air flow. The GFS 06z and 0z comparison for S Ireland highlights this:

gfs-1-126.thumb.png.528ba5e34f38035051bcd060462e80e5.pnggfs-1-120.thumb.png.898e6b12742790cd0a22a979f2648a63.png 

We can make the best of a rather disappointing set up with good phasing...

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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1 minute ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

Been waaaay too busy with work these past 7 days to have time to look at the models (how do people find so much time to be on here, morning, noon and night??? lol); clearly I haven't missed anything. While we are currently experiencing a standard fayre winter spell of colder than average weather with some frost and wintry showers, it certainly isn't the SSW winter nirvana that many were predicting. And now it looks like the 850 uppers will be on the rise (just look at those toasty GEFS for February) and you really have to ask the question, when do the diehards finally admit defeat and throw the towel in? 

It has been a winter off day 10 promise all the way, and surely it's just straw clutching now. None of us have any idea what later February will bring but after the SSW bust, maybe it's time to walk out of the casino.

I will be very worried if the MO 30 dayer suddenly is confident of mild all the way,but that only takes us to the start of March, so a) it can still be wrong, b) even in generally mild conditions, you can get lucky and get a dumping with just a little amplification of the jet, and c) There is still all of March.

Realistically we are up against it but there are so many variables.

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4 minutes ago, claret047 said:

If you have cross eyes Pete should it not be welldowning.

I am no expert but I believe that your area will do fine from Thursday night's precipitation. In fact South Suffolk could be the sweet spot.

I hope you're right, Claret, but I fear that I'm up for a double whammy: bugger all snow and a disaster at Wembley, tonight?:cray:?

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1 minute ago, kumquat said:

Small "trigger low" at 126 on the GFS 6z??

gfsnh-0-126.png

These are exactly what we're looking for. Ridge building behind looks good. FI is probably T96 and any op could throw an easterly in at the D6-7 range. 

image.thumb.png.c9e2b2760a6903ddc502336613a26bc6.png.

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7 minutes ago, Easton Luna Boys said:

Been waaaay too busy with work these past 7 days to have time to look at the models (how do people find so much time to be on here, morning, noon and night??? lol); clearly I haven't missed anything. While we are currently experiencing a standard fayre winter spell of colder than average weather with some frost and wintry showers, it certainly isn't the SSW winter nirvana that many were predicting. And now it looks like the 850 uppers will be on the rise (just look at those toasty GEFS for February) and you really have to ask the question, when do the diehards finally admit defeat and throw the towel in? 

It has been a winter off day 10 promise all the way, and surely it's just straw clutching now. None of us have any idea what later February will bring but after the SSW bust, maybe it's time to walk out of the casino.

31st April. If there's nout by then towel in. As it stands three snow "events" here this winter already. Nothing substantial but enough to keep the appetite warm for a beast. Will be keeping the beady eye on the models for something more interesting until the end of April, we all know how changeable our climate is.

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Indeed the Easterly does prevail, ironic though that there is now only surface cold ready to come in.

Yes, but as we know, the cold will come if it sustains in situ!

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3 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Easterly flow developing, ridge still building, cold air filter down through Scandi...

gfs-0-162.png?6

This could be a great run, strong scandy high that just needs another little nudge North and we’re in beast territory. Or will it be shunted East ?

Edited by Ali1977
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1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Indeed the Easterly does prevail, ironic though that there is now only surface cold ready to come in.

For now, it looks like it could be quite a stable pattern if it can get in.

I'd expect deep cold to get to us after a few days.

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8 minutes ago, Deep Snow please said:

31st April. If there's nout by then towel in. As it stands three snow "events" here this winter already. Nothing substantial but enough to keep the appetite warm for a beast. Will be keeping the beady eye on the models for something more interesting until the end of April, we all know how changeable our climate is.

It definitely won't snow that day, I can guarantee that.

 

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It looks way too complicated over Greenland to know what’s coming, trends though, but an early FI to boot!!! 

671F3005-C78C-4F85-924D-D50500BC70CD.png

This is very close to something pretty epic though, still well in winter so non of this March sunshine to warm things up just yet.

Edited by Ali1977
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4 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Indeed the Easterly does prevail, ironic though that there is now only surface cold ready to come in.

gfs-1-186.png?6

FI but if the GFS is to believed we won't have to worry for long.

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From subtle signs of surface heights to an almost fully developed Scandinavian high on the 6z GFS.. we're trending in a good direction. The Atlantic crud has been well and truly pushed back, less cold this weekend/early next week though certainly not mild away from the NW. 

Beyond? Possibility of an Easterly is increasing in my eyes

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