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Cold hunt - models and chat


Paul
Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
8 minutes ago, Hammer50 said:

Call that a snow bomb that was a powder puff lol.

Well if you are going to use the Daily express as your first port of call as a forecasting tool, then you are asking for trouble regarding forecast accuracy!

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Heads the way of the gefs in the extended .....getting there but pulling teeth on the way ! 

hopefully it will accelerate 

TBH now i just want one more shot so time doesn't bother me, if it gets there by 20th - 25th feb, that will still do me.

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Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
5 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended looks settled for most maybe a bit of patchy precipitation in the far south

ukm2.2019020600_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.63fca402ecc5115cfa2c58d4fd006f51.png

That’s a good chart for coldies . Ridge extending ne and a shortwave to the se over northern France .

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Posted
  • Location: redcar,cleveland
  • Weather Preferences: Winter cold,snow and frost. Summer hot and thundery
  • Location: redcar,cleveland

First decent day 10 ECM in a while, have we got another chace in us...

Of course bring it on

Screenshot_20190130-084111.png

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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
4 minutes ago, TEITS said:

My opinion is completely opposite. As expected the momentum towards an E,ly is gaining strength and even the ECM has finally seen the light. The flat, mild, unsettled pattern is slowly being replaced by the main low pressure being held back in the Atlantic, shortwaves edging SE, pressure rising to the NE.

The GEFS ensembles are now smelling the coffee. I commented on the lack of cold runs in the UK and Europe but clearly this isn't the case anymore.

t850Cambridgeshire.pngt850Berlin.png

Excellent +168 UKMO above.

We have seen stonking individual ensembles members and indeed some ens means have been excellent all Winter but we haven't seen anything concrete inside day 10. 

Given the Met Office extended we much surely start to see major changes soon as we should already be into that deeper cold spell in the 13/14 day timeframe.

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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
2 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

We have seen stonking individual ensembles members and indeed some ens means have been excellent all Winter but we haven't seen anything concrete inside day 10. 

I disagree to some extent. A couple of weeks ago when this weeks cold spell was starting to be sniffed out by ge GEFS there was a distinct lack of very cold uppers. What we saw as we got colder was a closer grouping of T850s between -5 & -7 for London. It always looked like a marginal slider event as there were very few very cold runs ie below -8. So far this winter there has been a real lack of very cold GEFS members 

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Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans

Icon 06z continues the theme to shear the occlusion tomorrow with some areas doing ok and others expecting a dump but reviving a flurry! 

This isn’t a sudden shift - it has been trending this way, run after run so should be reliable 

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Oh dear! Oh dear! Oh dear!:cray:

It seems as if tomorrow's 'will the snow turn to rain south of the M4, or not?' scenario has been replaced with the more customary 'how far north of the English Channel will tomorrow's snow get?' situation...?

Well, it could be that, I suppose - or it could be that, after so many eastward, westward, southward and northward 'corrections' one is becoming cross-eyed...?

Anywho...all eyes to possible downwelling!:cold:

Edited by Ed Stone
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Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
26 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

I disagree to some extent. A couple of weeks ago when this weeks cold spell was starting to be sniffed out by ge GEFS there was a distinct lack of very cold uppers. What we saw as we got colder was a closer grouping of T850s between -5 & -7 for London. It always looked like a marginal slider event as there were very few very cold runs ie below -8. So far this winter there has been a real lack of very cold GEFS members 

I don't think we can really compare this current colder than average spell with no northerly blocking to what we might potentially be seeing in the 10-14 days time frame though with proper northerly blocking and 850s in the sub -8 range.

Given that the UK Met long ranger would imply we are already into the colder spell by the 13th February we really need to see a firming up of the models in the extended continuing to point to that direction of travel.

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Posted
  • Location: Runcorn
  • Weather Preferences: SNOWWWWWWWW
  • Location: Runcorn
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh dear! Oh dear! Oh dear!:cray:

It seems as if tomorrow's 'will the snow turn to rain south of the M4, or not?' scenario has been replaced with the more customary 'how far north of the English Channel will tomorrow's now get?' situation...?

Well, it could be that, I suppose - or it could be that, after so many eastward, westward, southward and northward 'corrections' one is becoming cross-eyed...?

Anywho...all eyes to possible downwelling!:cold:

That's honestly what I'm looking for. Despite the fact tomorrow promises 5-10cm and then possibly another event for Saturday, I'm still keeping an eye on the mid to long term and the first signs of unleashing that beast.. Which I think we now have.

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Posted
  • Location: Hereford
  • Location: Hereford
11 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Icon 06z continues the theme to shear the occlusion tomorrow with some areas doing ok and others expecting a dump but reviving a flurry! 

This isn’t a sudden shift - it has been trending this way, run after run so should be reliable 

 

Got to agree with this sadly. There will be some areas that get the heavier stuff but the the front seems like it will fragment as it moves northwards.

You never know though as models don't always get this spot on, as sometimes ppn can weaken and reinvigorate as a front moves.

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Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.

NetWx-mr models take on Thursday/Friday snowfall.

668527480_viewimage(21).thumb.png.7f856f146ef3ddfa280e6a6b30f7eecd.png1461856774_viewimage(22).thumb.png.59a6fc0cfa82229a0f6fa469c1015baa.png1375493203_viewimage(23).thumb.png.2115af288c6b601bcd5d4582c7ac26d9.png

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
22 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Icon 06z continues the theme to shear the occlusion tomorrow with some areas doing ok and others expecting a dump but reviving a flurry! 

This isn’t a sudden shift - it has been trending this way, run after run so should be reliable 

 

It has been certainly the theme, though I have to admit its gone even further than / thought it might at first (even done here staying to wonder whether the heaviest stuff may just stay offshore, though I've still got some leeway at this stage). Certainly should prove a good lesson to people though.

Also, as previously said, those 955-965mbs ball like low that was forecast was never realistic with this type of set-up, there were always going to be secondary depressions and waves likely to form in the flow.

PM- its using GFS data, and the GFS still the most progressive in bringing milder air into the south. This is looking really unlikely now, thus Net weather model likely to be wrong, especially as GFS has been frankly a joke with this set-up and that's what this model is based off, so don't expect it to be much better

Edited by kold weather
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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire

GFS looks further N this morning. Come on.. Last minute shift N please. 

Even the ECM gives me some snizzle. 

Edited by CreweCold
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Posted
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl
5 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

NetWx-mr models take on Thursday/Friday snowfall.

668527480_viewimage(21).thumb.png.7f856f146ef3ddfa280e6a6b30f7eecd.png1461856774_viewimage(22).thumb.png.59a6fc0cfa82229a0f6fa469c1015baa.png1375493203_viewimage(23).thumb.png.2115af288c6b601bcd5d4582c7ac26d9.png

nope it definitely looks by that chart that we will miss out yet again, just hope there is a correction 

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

GFS looks further N this morning. Come on.. Last minute shift N please. 

Even the ECM gives me some snizzle. 

Marginally further north with the northern extent...however given the GFS has basically been a 1/10 thus far with this low pressure/frontal system, I wouldn't be banking on it being correct against the other models!

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Posted
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes of all kinds...
  • Location: Crymych, Pembrokeshire. 150m asl
1 hour ago, Newberryone said:

Mountain Shadows remark re “10 day potential” is very reasonable considering that’s undeniably been the story of winter ‘18/‘19 so far. While I admit there’s a certain degree of uncertainty beyond the next 3/4 day wintry snap there does seem to be a growing signal for less cold weather to take hold from next Mon onwards with nothing very noteworthy in the pipeline. We can only hope that Feb will produce many more bites of the cherry culminating in something very savory come months end. 

Something's got to turn up soon - there's only another two days left for people to say: 'Don't worry, it's stil only January'.....

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Posted
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Hoar Frost, Snow, Misty Autumn mornings
  • Location: Near King's Lynn 13.68m ASL
10 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

nope it definitely looks by that chart that we will miss out yet again, just hope there is a correction 

That's just a snapshot at midnight. The front will continue to push through Kent. Looking at the high rez WRF, you could do ok?

nmmuk-1-47-0.png?30-06

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Posted
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl
  • Location: ramsgate 42m asl
Just now, Yarmy said:

That's just a snapshot at midnight. The front will continue to push through Kent. Looking at the high rez WRF, you could do ok?

nmmuk-1-47-0.png?30-06

thanks for that we wait in anticipation

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Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)

Been a good winter for spotting individual model bias, to name but a few from many - GFS op with its short-term bias of pushing frontal systems too far north with lows moving SE to the SW of the UK, but also more mysteriously the EC high res keeps churning out mild outliers 

A7810F4A-FF00-4ADE-9699-67FC548B4537.thumb.png.347a063368bce119b5e42983dac4edcf.png

Although a slight warming trend at 850 hPa in the means into next week, this may not be truly reflective on the ground, so wouldn’t be surprised we stay cold at the surface well into next week, with shallow highs keeping an inversion, perhaps NW turning milder.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Hernia Bay
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy Snow
  • Location: Hernia Bay
18 minutes ago, PLANET THANET said:

nope it definitely looks by that chart that we will miss out yet again, just hope there is a correction 

What's your location 

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Posted
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
  • Weather Preferences: snowy or sunny but not too hot!
  • Location: Springfield, Chelmsford, Essex 30Mtr ASL
37 minutes ago, Ed Stone said:

Oh dear! Oh dear! Oh dear!:cray:

It seems as if tomorrow's 'will the snow turn to rain south of the M4, or not?' scenario has been replaced with the more customary 'how far north of the English Channel will tomorrow's snow get?' situation...?

Well, it could be that, I suppose - or it could be that, after so many eastward, westward, southward and northward 'corrections' one is becoming cross-eyed...?

Anywho...all eyes to possible downwelling!:cold:

If you have cross eyes Pete should it not be welldowning.

I am no expert but I believe that your area will do fine from Thursday night's precipitation. In fact South Suffolk could be the sweet spot.

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