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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Well the GFSp coming out now, wonder what its going to show for Thursday? Anyway we are getting close to the point where any differences on the models for Thursday are minimal, so unless things change dramatically, I'll probably shift that conservation into the regionals so this thread can go back to hunting for other cold possibilities.

Much further south. Gets to the Central Midlands and then dies out.

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GFSp furtherst south yet. Going to be a south coast event at this rate ! 

0DD021C0-73CD-44AA-8A70-F6EC9E35374E.png

A02FE74D-33BC-4215-810A-2B80E2048CB9.png

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2 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Much further south. Gets to the Central Midlands and then dies out.

My gut would be the GFSp and some of the other models may have 'over-adjusted' to the south, I wouldn;'t be shocked for a slight rebound north, though nowhere near as much as previously.

But who knows, as you say much further south and event us down here won't get that much!!

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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

My gut would be the GFSp and some of the other models may have 'over-adjusted' to the south, I wouldn;'t be shocked for a slight rebound north, though nowhere near as much as previously.

But who knows, as you say much further south and event us down here won't get that much!!

Keep us up to date with 18z ecm buddy!!hopefully a push north on that update!!

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8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

GFSp furtherst south yet. Going to be a south coast event at this rate ! 

0DD021C0-73CD-44AA-8A70-F6EC9E35374E.png

A02FE74D-33BC-4215-810A-2B80E2048CB9.png

Sounds good to me !

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The GfsP further south scenario isn't ideal for south areas. It will reduce almost 50% the ppn and only South Ireland will see some decent accumulations.

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1 minute ago, Empire Of Snow said:

The GfsP further south scenario isn't ideal for south areas. It will reduce almost 50% the ppn and only South Ireland will see some decent accumulations.

Surely it will take the rain boundary further south also though..?

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7 minutes ago, Empire Of Snow said:

The GfsP further south scenario isn't ideal for south areas. It will reduce almost 50% the ppn and only South Ireland will see some decent accumulations.

There is a balance to be struck, and indeed the GFSp maybe just a little too far south on that balance if you want the highest amount of snow down in the south.

Still its 100% better than the GFs 12z was for example and I'm glad the GFS op has at least somewhat come inline.

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EURO4 finally reaches the next potential significant snow event for England but only reaches the M4 corridor at T48. Dewpoints clearly below 0 or all; 850hpa temps below -5 excluding far SW & winds off the continent, looking good!

2022193721_Euro4snow.thumb.gif.28db04fd2a02d32a676c95e2327214b7.gif606352777_Euro4dewpoint.thumb.gif.b4916e2780ff2de619837e796ace7d52.gif490515484_euro4hpa.thumb.gif.4d7a727dbf6bead25080083d9002ea1e.gif1833141130_850hpawinds.thumb.gif.948b6808f8e4feaca25f00b4c40902d4.gif

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Euro4 now in range for Thursday - here's its first effort for 6pm

19013118_2918.gif

no doubt the front will get a bit further north in the hours after. 

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14 minutes ago, Nights King said:

Surely it will take the rain boundary further south also though..?

I didn't follow every run tbh but this event can't be on the marginal side even if it follows a northern path. Cold air will already be in place.

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GEFS pretty keen on an undercutting theme out into FI with a deep FI cold signal showing

graphe3_1000_264_81___.gif

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1 hour ago, Mike Poole said:

GFS 18z illustrating perfectly what I think is now the direction of travel, as the northern blocking starts to come closer to the UK, so also does a slug of extremely cold air, now I've seen it on the models I get a feel for the possibility that the Met Office have been alluding to. Pub run T138:

image.thumb.jpg.fc7a6315192e1ae143d1c369a8b512cc.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.25388a5f441a05c533da2213335f7514.jpg

White finger, does it have our name on it?  Watch this thread, come on guys, one last ride on the roller coaster, one more shot at the Jackpot?

With you all the way, and for a change I'm gonna say the met will be upgrading there forecast in the next couple of day, rather than the usual downgrading it! 

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12 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

Euro4 now in range for Thursday - here's its first effort for 6pm

19013118_2918.gif

no doubt the front will get a bit further north in the hours after. 

This seems to be trending further and further south with every run now. Any further trends south and it could become a non-event for many. 

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We’d have been salivating over this T+240 chart a couple of weeks back. Lovely Greenland block. Alas chalk and cheese when compared to the 12z. 

Either way, we hardly have an Atlantic onslaught on the horizon. Great model watching continues to abound!

 

103A78FF-1989-459D-BB01-961123452CA0.png

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3 minutes ago, Mucka said:

GEFS pretty keen on an undercutting theme out into FI with a deep FI cold signal showing

graphe3_1000_264_81___.gif

Just need the EPS to climb aboard the ship.

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8 minutes ago, shetland islands said:

This seems to be trending further and further south with every run now. Any further trends south and it could become a non-event for many. 

This is only till 6pm on Thursday, the band is just moving inland.

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24 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

EURO4 finally reaches the next potential significant snow event for England but only reaches the M4 corridor at T48. Dewpoints clearly below 0 or all; 850hpa temps below -5 excluding far SW & winds off the continent, looking good!

2022193721_Euro4snow.thumb.gif.28db04fd2a02d32a676c95e2327214b7.gif606352777_Euro4dewpoint.thumb.gif.b4916e2780ff2de619837e796ace7d52.gif490515484_euro4hpa.thumb.gif.4d7a727dbf6bead25080083d9002ea1e.gif1833141130_850hpawinds.thumb.gif.948b6808f8e4feaca25f00b4c40902d4.gif

Runs out further on weather.us

2EEBFB98-190F-47E6-8163-16407A16481B.jpeg

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A bit of from  China with love, its on, its on, the chase is back on, 

cma-0-240.png

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15 minutes ago, shetland islands said:

This seems to be trending further and further south with every run now. Any further trends south and it could become a non-event for many. 

Keepnit right there.. Euro4 is now my favourite model

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Most models are trending south but it seems challenging to keep the South west in an all snow event.. Really annoying

Edited by Dave Kightley
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I think I'd take the 18z FV3 at T300 as a decent holding position, until the real cold comes....

image.thumb.jpg.f1df1e1f3d60bd5d304a0e75de95b964.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.f92c71e66694de8febcd002a10e85dbc.jpg

Just illustrating possibilities at the moment, we need to see if these evolutions, which fit with the downwelling strat theory, actually come into the reliable.  Interesting times.

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I will be looking for a slight west and south movement of the low tomorrow. Must be an unavoidable warm sector within the front or the front gets to far north.. The south west and warm sectors are like best friends normally.. Hoping for a big fall out this week!

Edited by Dave Kightley

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the way the models are seemingly trending thursday's wintry stuff southwards, I'll take a punt that the sweet spot will be the Straits of Gibraltar 

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