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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

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BBC weather 10 day forecast just said there is a chance of a “potential blocking pattern” in Europe affecting our weather at the end of the period. How would a block in Europe affect our weather? I thought this would need to be over Scandinavia or Greenland to get cold weather.

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1 minute ago, je282 said:

BBC weather 10 day forecast just said there is a chance of a “potential blocking pattern” in Europe affecting our weather at the end of the period. How would a block in Europe affect our weather? I thought this would need to be over Scandinavia or Greenland to get cold weather.

Perhaps they meant a blocking Euro slug . . .😂😂

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Did someone mention on here earlier about the chance that block setting up to the east of uk longer range forecast have just mentioned it.  getting very interesting..

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3 minutes ago, je282 said:

BBC weather 10 day forecast just said there is a chance of a “potential blocking pattern” in Europe affecting our weather at the end of the period. How would a block in Europe affect our weather? I thought this would need to be over Scandinavia or Greenland to get cold weather.

Scandinavia is in Europe 🤣🤣

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9 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Did someone mention sweet spot :whistling::oldgrin:

image.thumb.png.3e5382c06e77d1ebb1277d352c910f98.png

Yeah looks great for me too *Mic Drop* 

IMBY aside here as the 168 hr chart from the 18z run to keep this post on the models because who cares about those right? :oldgood:

 

gfsnh-0-168.png

Edited by Summerstorm
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22 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Was this in the script for Saturday?  Pub run T84:

image.thumb.jpg.669673cded37be9264b054b7e1a9506a.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.aada69153f3b3ffb52de88a7c19e2a89.jpg

Welcome to freezing February everyone ❄️

Full of Eastern promise that chart!

Is an unexpectedly snowy weekend on the cards?

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And arpege at 48 hrs 

arpegeeur-2-48.png

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31 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Looking good Thursday snow thats very heavy South East England and some parts of the midlands 

5C642E8D-D7A3-489E-BFFE-AF824BD8E593.jpeg

I can’t put any trust in these charts at all, they may as well not exist.

I’ve had 4 hours of heavy rain here tonight in Essex when these charts a few days ago were showing a decent snow event. I’ve not even made the transition to sleet! 🙄😤

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1 minute ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Full of Eastern promise that chart!

Is an unexpectedly snowy weekend on the cards?

Not sure at the moment, but possible, depending on location.  Just interesting charts at the moment, even T84 beyond the reliable!!

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19 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Was this in the script for Saturday?  Pub run T84:

image.thumb.jpg.669673cded37be9264b054b7e1a9506a.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.aada69153f3b3ffb52de88a7c19e2a89.jpg

Welcome to freezing February everyone ❄️

Yes there was a scenario of a possible snow event Saturday night into Sunday for the East/NE/SE. 

Canadian vortex is more aggressive in this run, pushes the Azores high initially to ridge over UK and then flatten east. Possibly will lead to NW conditions again, milder for sure unless things change dramatically at 192+. Bad run so far.

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12 minutes ago, Stonethecrows said:

Most people will be too preoccupied with imby posts for thursday to notice i think.

Yes, that is the case sadly!

The GFS and ICON (possibly the UKMO as well) seem to be sniffing around the idea of further trough disruption over the UK.

It seems to me that with the building Siberian high and a lack of momentum for systems coming from the west we are at the crossroads. The ECM has another take on the 0z with the draining of the Canadian vortex towards the end of the run. 

If we were to see continued troughs dropping south over the UK as per the ICON/GFS/UKMO (possibly) with the draining of the vortex then it *could* imply heights building in to the north east.

Whether this came from a trigger low dropping south and heights building in from the east or the Azores high ridging NE and linking up to Scandinavia who knows, but it would open the door for something a little more interesting than marginal snow events from the Atlantic running into the coldish trough over us as we are currently seeing.

Just a few thoughts as we see another hint that the trend towards mild may not be as mild or long lasting as was suggested a couple of days ago...

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2 minutes ago, Empire Of Snow said:

Yes there was a scenario of a possible snow event Saturday night into Sunday for the East/NE/SE. 

Canadian vortex is more aggressive in this run, pushes the Azores high initially to ridge over UK and then flatten east. Possibly will lead to NW conditions again, milder for sure unless things change dramatically at 192+. Bad run so far.

Already probably gone off piste well before T192, given current levels of uncertainty, I can certainly envisage a dry cool settled spell setting in before any really cold synoptics occurring.  Interesting times for model watching...

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Looking at the NHP it would appear to be ripe for some HLB to pop up anywhere?

image.thumb.png.16e002e3098f3e62025e8081cff2bf72.png

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Already probably gone off piste well before T192, given current levels of uncertainty, I can certainly envisage a dry cool settled spell setting in before any really cold synoptics occurring.  Interesting times for model watching...

Could still be a good run in FI - signs of a southerly tracking Jet already at 216 - could be an FI similar to this week!

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3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Already probably gone off piste well before T192, given current levels of uncertainty, I can certainly envisage a dry cool settled spell setting in before any really cold synoptics occurring.  Interesting times for model watching...

Like your enthusiasm, Mike. Let's go with it, it is probably our last big shout into Feb.

Saying that, if we are just starting to experience any effects from the SSW who knows what could happen.

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Who wants to put bets on a freezing march with northern blocking? You just no that’s what’s going to happen.

anyway back to the here and now regarding Thursday I still think Manchester is going to be the northern extent of any snow maybe light up there, it’s going to swing north and south over the next load of runs but it’s like panic stations in the mids thread about it so thought I’d come here for a break 😂

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2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Already probably gone off piste well before T192, given current levels of uncertainty, I can certainly envisage a dry cool settled spell setting in before any really cold synoptics occurring.  Interesting times for model watching...

It will probably hint for Easterly deep in FI but I would only bank the weekend upgrade in this run. After this is a bore fest 

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4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Looking at the NHP it would appear to be ripe for some HLB to pop up anywhere?

image.thumb.png.16e002e3098f3e62025e8081cff2bf72.png

Been reading that since November

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Well the GFSp coming out now, wonder what its going to show for Thursday? Anyway we are getting close to the point where any differences on the models for Thursday are minimal, so unless things change dramatically, I'll probably shift that conservation into the regionals so this thread can go back to hunting for other cold possibilities.

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20 minutes ago, Matty J said:

I can’t put any trust in these charts at all, they may as well not exist.

I’ve had 4 hours of heavy rain here tonight in Essex when these charts a few days ago were showing a decent snow event. I’ve not even made the transition to sleet! 🙄😤

You must of been very unlucky - most of Essex saw sleet or some snow👍🏻

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Some decent 18z runs regarding Thursday, a more intense front -with a better angle of approach - drawing in more of an easterly/continental component as the ppn sets in. Should mean more snow for those further south.

 

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7 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Like your enthusiasm, Mike. Let's go with it, it is probably our last big shout into Feb.

Saying that, if we are just starting to experience any effects from the SSW who knows what could happen.

Something like this, pub run T264:

image.thumb.jpg.57f6734bbc2bea01a4d23f8469d6037b.jpg

Just needs an opening and the block will form!

Edit: T300:

image.thumb.jpg.47b06a7033268338ebb37642f843f7e6.jpg

Possibly a bit too far east on this run, but it's T300 will change, but it is good to see these charts appearing, a fair few today to be honest.

Edited by Mike Poole
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