Cold hunt - models and chat

[je282 2]

BBC weather 10 day forecast just said there is a chance of a “potential blocking pattern” in Europe affecting our weather at the end of the period. How would a block in Europe affect our weather? I thought this would need to be over Scandinavia or Greenland to get cold weather.

[Mike Poole 29,696]

GFS 18z illustrating perfectly what I think is now the direction of travel, as the northern blocking starts to come closer to the UK, so also does a slug of extremely cold air, now I've seen it on the models I get a feel for the possibility that the Met Office have been alluding to. Pub run T138:

White finger, does it have our name on it?  Watch this thread, come on guys, one last ride on the roller coaster, one more shot at the Jackpot?

[Djdazzle 5,472]

1 minute ago, je282 said:

BBC weather 10 day forecast just said there is a chance of a “potential blocking pattern” in Europe affecting our weather at the end of the period. How would a block in Europe affect our weather? I thought this would need to be over Scandinavia or Greenland to get cold weather.

Perhaps they meant a blocking Euro slug . . .??

[Scandinavian High. 2,794]

Did someone mention on here earlier about the chance that block setting up to the east of uk longer range forecast have just mentioned it.  getting very interesting..

[That ECM 9,020]

3 minutes ago, je282 said:

BBC weather 10 day forecast just said there is a chance of a “potential blocking pattern” in Europe affecting our weather at the end of the period. How would a block in Europe affect our weather? I thought this would need to be over Scandinavia or Greenland to get cold weather.

Scandinavia is in Europe ??

[Summerstorm 444]

9 minutes ago, Dancerwithwings said:

Did someone mention sweet spot

Yeah looks great for me too *Mic Drop* 

IMBY aside here as the 168 hr chart from the 18z run to keep this post on the models because who cares about those right? 

 

Edited January 29, 2019 by Summerstorm

[Kentish Snowman in Yorks 2,986]

22 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Was this in the script for Saturday?  Pub run T84:

Welcome to freezing February everyone ❄️

Full of Eastern promise that chart!

Is an unexpectedly snowy weekend on the cards?

[weirpig 10,099]

And arpege at 48 hrs 

[Matty J 200]

31 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Looking good Thursday snow thats very heavy South East England and some parts of the midlands 

I can’t put any trust in these charts at all, they may as well not exist.

I’ve had 4 hours of heavy rain here tonight in Essex when these charts a few days ago were showing a decent snow event. I’ve not even made the transition to sleet! ??

[Mike Poole 29,696]

1 minute ago, Kentish Snowman said:

Full of Eastern promise that chart!

Is an unexpectedly snowy weekend on the cards?

Not sure at the moment, but possible, depending on location.  Just interesting charts at the moment, even T84 beyond the reliable!!

[tight isobar 15,024]

This is difficult...

But anyway..

Im personaly loving this as my fascination with iso

baric strucure /influence is in full play...

We have @best a weak mlb-with forcing from the atmospheres obvious wanting of normality..

In a rapid nutshell..whether some are keen for gradients of forming/incoming LP-SYSTEMS and 4 want..in such as we are.. the forcing southwards- is almost certain..

Ive tryed hard to refrain from these notiins 4 accused of southerly 'bias'..but the truth is geostrophic winds will ONLY follow 1-format (ultimately)..and we are in a near perfect position 4 ref!..

Contour/isobars..are a sperate show..

And especialy on a microscale..

Anyway.. with a feabile mlb..and downward forces..(as atm)..

Systems aiming 4 the uk..are hit and fall!!..

And will bounce- by way of nature on a southerly track...

Its the middle leading- that needs scope!!

However interstingly thurs/fri..could be a rare split incur...and of miniscule system part...on the gradient scale...and with overheads...A LOT BETTER than this eve..

A massive event..could show its hand 'snow-wise'..

On a large scale situ ..4 mass uk..

Although again...no bias...but southerly tracking should be both noted/excepted..

And should that intail..god bless those areas..

BURIED!!..

 

 

Edited January 29, 2019 by tight isobar

[Empire Of Snow 199]

19 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Was this in the script for Saturday?  Pub run T84:

Welcome to freezing February everyone ❄️

Yes there was a scenario of a possible snow event Saturday night into Sunday for the East/NE/SE. 

Canadian vortex is more aggressive in this run, pushes the Azores high initially to ridge over UK and then flatten east. Possibly will lead to NW conditions again, milder for sure unless things change dramatically at 192+. Bad run so far.

[WhiteFox 794]

12 minutes ago, Stonethecrows said:

Most people will be too preoccupied with imby posts for thursday to notice i think.

Yes, that is the case sadly!

The GFS and ICON (possibly the UKMO as well) seem to be sniffing around the idea of further trough disruption over the UK.

It seems to me that with the building Siberian high and a lack of momentum for systems coming from the west we are at the crossroads. The ECM has another take on the 0z with the draining of the Canadian vortex towards the end of the run. 

If we were to see continued troughs dropping south over the UK as per the ICON/GFS/UKMO (possibly) with the draining of the vortex then it *could* imply heights building in to the north east.

Whether this came from a trigger low dropping south and heights building in from the east or the Azores high ridging NE and linking up to Scandinavia who knows, but it would open the door for something a little more interesting than marginal snow events from the Atlantic running into the coldish trough over us as we are currently seeing.

Just a few thoughts as we see another hint that the trend towards mild may not be as mild or long lasting as was suggested a couple of days ago...

[Mike Poole 29,696]

2 minutes ago, Empire Of Snow said:

Yes there was a scenario of a possible snow event Saturday night into Sunday for the East/NE/SE. 

Canadian vortex is more aggressive in this run, pushes the Azores high initially to ridge over UK and then flatten east. Possibly will lead to NW conditions again, milder for sure unless things change dramatically at 192+. Bad run so far.

Already probably gone off piste well before T192, given current levels of uncertainty, I can certainly envisage a dry cool settled spell setting in before any really cold synoptics occurring.  Interesting times for model watching...

[Ice Day 7,151]

Looking at the NHP it would appear to be ripe for some HLB to pop up anywhere?

[feb1991blizzard 22,712]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Already probably gone off piste well before T192, given current levels of uncertainty, I can certainly envisage a dry cool settled spell setting in before any really cold synoptics occurring.  Interesting times for model watching...

Could still be a good run in FI - signs of a southerly tracking Jet already at 216 - could be an FI similar to this week!

[Tim Bland 13,835]

10 minutes ago, Matty J said:

I can’t put any trust in these charts at all, they may as well not exist.

I’ve had 4 hours of heavy rain here tonight in Essex when these charts a few days ago were showing a decent snow event. I’ve not even made the transition to sleet! ??

???

lots of areas in Essex have had / are having snow now. I presume you are at a low altitude.

models look to be firming up on central southern England, south mids and wales as the sweet spot for Thurs now. BBC graphic has also been uodated 

[Stuie W 1,864]

3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Already probably gone off piste well before T192, given current levels of uncertainty, I can certainly envisage a dry cool settled spell setting in before any really cold synoptics occurring.  Interesting times for model watching...

Like your enthusiasm, Mike. Let's go with it, it is probably our last big shout into Feb.

Saying that, if we are just starting to experience any effects from the SSW who knows what could happen.

[markw2680 2,758]

Who wants to put bets on a freezing march with northern blocking? You just no that’s what’s going to happen.

anyway back to the here and now regarding Thursday I still think Manchester is going to be the northern extent of any snow maybe light up there, it’s going to swing north and south over the next load of runs but it’s like panic stations in the mids thread about it so thought I’d come here for a break ?

[Empire Of Snow 199]

2 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Already probably gone off piste well before T192, given current levels of uncertainty, I can certainly envisage a dry cool settled spell setting in before any really cold synoptics occurring.  Interesting times for model watching...

It will probably hint for Easterly deep in FI but I would only bank the weekend upgrade in this run. After this is a bore fest 

[Spah1 2,690]

4 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Looking at the NHP it would appear to be ripe for some HLB to pop up anywhere?

Been reading that since November

[kold weather 11,955]

Well the GFSp coming out now, wonder what its going to show for Thursday? Anyway we are getting close to the point where any differences on the models for Thursday are minimal, so unless things change dramatically, I'll probably shift that conservation into the regionals so this thread can go back to hunting for other cold possibilities.

[Vadoseflame 1,160]

20 minutes ago, Matty J said:

I can’t put any trust in these charts at all, they may as well not exist.

I’ve had 4 hours of heavy rain here tonight in Essex when these charts a few days ago were showing a decent snow event. I’ve not even made the transition to sleet! ??

You must of been very unlucky - most of Essex saw sleet or some snow??

[chris55 6,388]

Some decent 18z runs regarding Thursday, a more intense front -with a better angle of approach - drawing in more of an easterly/continental component as the ppn sets in. Should mean more snow for those further south.

 

[Mike Poole 29,696]

7 minutes ago, Stuie W said:

Like your enthusiasm, Mike. Let's go with it, it is probably our last big shout into Feb.

Saying that, if we are just starting to experience any effects from the SSW who knows what could happen.

Something like this, pub run T264:

Just needs an opening and the block will form!

Edit: T300:

Possibly a bit too far east on this run, but it's T300 will change, but it is good to see these charts appearing, a fair few today to be honest.

Edited January 29, 2019 by Mike Poole