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Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Gfs18z.the suspense is unbearable!!!will it or won't it?north or south!!!!

Looks like about the same to me so far.

Same as 12z GFS that is.

Edited by feb1991blizzard

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I know i keep banging on bout this but 18z again is a midlands jackpot it seems!

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Tad further South with heavy PPN although some light PPN does get very far North.

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Looks like about the same to me so far.

Same as 12z GFS that is.

Sorry your correct.it was a hint of sarcasm there sorry🙃🤣

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On 28/01/2019 at 18:16, MattStoke said:

I think the joyous reaction in here tells us the Northern extent of the snow 

Just a hunch, but I'm strongly inclined to suggest possible height rises immediately to our north inside t144 in the next 24 hrs, been studying something and I honestly don't see how it's not been picked upon my models at the min, I stand to be told different, 

The vortex positioning along with low pressure through the heart of uk to our south through Europe is crying out pressure rises having a big influence on our weather, keeping it cold next week

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8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

South & Wales snow fans rubbing their hands together at the Icon! 

FA5DEF62-6F92-4732-9B7E-E0CE99B70B14.jpeg

Not for us on the pile of Wight M8. Same old, rain rain and more rain. 

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Models still struggling with this Thursday low at ridiculous timescales, here's ECM T48 and GFS 18z T42 for comparison 

image.thumb.jpg.fbf166f232dc553d1538804c9ec70621.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.580dc3c9b817701b6d197a27832df0a0.jpg

GFS doesn't want the trough disruption, I think it's wrong still, elongated low as per ECM is surely the most likely solution here.

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The look of the front is different on this run from the 18z GFs. The front is still a fair way further north than the model mean would suggest (admittedly from eyeballing it!), and in terms of absolute distance, its not that massive of a change, but the difference is HUGE for the SE in particular.

Its not a total capitulation but a fair step towards every other single model, especially for the south which now has decent snow spell compared to rain the GFS had earlier today.

 

Edited by kold weather

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Looking good Thursday snow thats very heavy South East England and some parts of the midlands 

5C642E8D-D7A3-489E-BFFE-AF824BD8E593.jpeg

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1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

Looking good Thursday snow thats very heavy South East England and some parts of the midlands 

5C642E8D-D7A3-489E-BFFE-AF824BD8E593.jpeg

Looks like central south to me, perfect

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Heights rising over iceland 1020 could be a great run. 

gfs-0-78.png

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GFS further south on this run. More in line with the other models but still the most progressive, like it always is.

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3 minutes ago, Isleofwightsnowgal74 said:

Nah surely even we’d see some from that?

 

Believe it when it's showing on the radar .

We only seem to do well from easterlies.

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3 minutes ago, saintkip said:

Looks like central south to me, perfect

Yep looking very good southern England snow Thursday it might not even get no more then the midlands we’ll see..

Edited by abbie123

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Wouldn't bother taking a whole load of notice of the icon, I'm pretty sure the met office will be using their own when making the forecast.

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7 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

Looking good Thursday snow thats very heavy South East England and some parts of the midlands 

5C642E8D-D7A3-489E-BFFE-AF824BD8E593.jpeg

And heavy snow for our Welsh friends too.

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Reminding me of December 10th last winter, where a front dumped around 15cm of snow over the Midlands before providing a cm of snow here.

Edited by Supacell

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4 minutes ago, Supacell said:

Reminding me of December 10th last winter, where a front dumped around 15cm of snow over the Midlands before providing a cm of snow here.

The pedant in me says Derbyshire is in the Midlands.

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4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Was this in the script for Saturday?  Pub run T84:

image.thumb.jpg.669673cded37be9264b054b7e1a9506a.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.aada69153f3b3ffb52de88a7c19e2a89.jpg

Welcome to freezing February everyone ❄️

Most people will be too preoccupied with imby posts for thursday to notice i think.

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Hirlams take at 48hrs  

hirlam-1-48-0.png

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

The pedant in me says Derbyshire is in the Midlands.

Yep but Derby is about 50 miles SSE of where I live.  As you know Glossop is nearly East of Manchester but from a meto view, is in the East Midlands where as I may as well be in the NW. being less than a mile from  the GTR Manc Border.

Yes it can get bl**dy confusing when the Midlands is mentioned as a sweetspot😄

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