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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    2 minutes ago, swfc said:

    Gfs18z.the suspense is unbearable!!!will it or won't it?north or south!!!!

    Looks like about the same to me so far.

    Same as 12z GFS that is.

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

    Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

    Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Tad further South with heavy PPN although some light PPN does get very far North.

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
    2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

    Looks like about the same to me so far.

    Same as 12z GFS that is.

    Sorry your correct.it was a hint of sarcasm there sorry??

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    Posted
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking low pressure in winter. Hot and thundery in the summer
  • Location: Wellseborne, Warwickshire
    On 28/01/2019 at 18:16, MattStoke said:

    I think the joyous reaction in here tells us the Northern extent of the snow 

    Just a hunch, but I'm strongly inclined to suggest possible height rises immediately to our north inside t144 in the next 24 hrs, been studying something and I honestly don't see how it's not been picked upon my models at the min, I stand to be told different, 

    The vortex positioning along with low pressure through the heart of uk to our south through Europe is crying out pressure rises having a big influence on our weather, keeping it cold next week

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    Posted
  • Location: Horringford, Isle of wight
  • Weather Preferences: snow/thunderstorms
  • Location: Horringford, Isle of wight
    8 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    South & Wales snow fans rubbing their hands together at the Icon! 

    FA5DEF62-6F92-4732-9B7E-E0CE99B70B14.jpeg

    Not for us on the pile of Wight M8. Same old, rain rain and more rain. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    Models still struggling with this Thursday low at ridiculous timescales, here's ECM T48 and GFS 18z T42 for comparison 

    image.thumb.jpg.fbf166f232dc553d1538804c9ec70621.jpgimage.thumb.jpg.580dc3c9b817701b6d197a27832df0a0.jpg

    GFS doesn't want the trough disruption, I think it's wrong still, elongated low as per ECM is surely the most likely solution here.

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    Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook

    The look of the front is different on this run from the 18z GFs. The front is still a fair way further north than the model mean would suggest (admittedly from eyeballing it!), and in terms of absolute distance, its not that massive of a change, but the difference is HUGE for the SE in particular.

    Its not a total capitulation but a fair step towards every other single model, especially for the south which now has decent snow spell compared to rain the GFS had earlier today.

     

    Edited by kold weather
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    Posted
  • Location: Basingstoke
  • Location: Basingstoke
    1 minute ago, abbie123 said:

    Looking good Thursday snow thats very heavy South East England and some parts of the midlands 

    5C642E8D-D7A3-489E-BFFE-AF824BD8E593.jpeg

    Looks like central south to me, perfect

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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND

    Heights rising over iceland 1020 could be a great run. 

    gfs-0-78.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.
  • Location: Longton, Stoke-on-Trent.

    GFS further south on this run. More in line with the other models but still the most progressive, like it always is.

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    Posted
  • Location: Horringford, Isle of wight
  • Weather Preferences: snow/thunderstorms
  • Location: Horringford, Isle of wight
    3 minutes ago, Isleofwightsnowgal74 said:

    Nah surely even we’d see some from that?

     

    Believe it when it's showing on the radar .

    We only seem to do well from easterlies.

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
    3 minutes ago, saintkip said:

    Looks like central south to me, perfect

    Yep looking very good southern England snow Thursday it might not even get no more then the midlands we’ll see..

    Edited by abbie123
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    Posted
  • Location: Washington - Tyne and Wear
  • Weather Preferences: Severe Thunderstorms, Heat (Summer) & Snow in Winter
  • Location: Washington - Tyne and Wear
    7 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

    Looking good Thursday snow thats very heavy South East England and some parts of the midlands 

    5C642E8D-D7A3-489E-BFFE-AF824BD8E593.jpeg

    And heavy snow for our Welsh friends too.

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    Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire

    Reminding me of December 10th last winter, where a front dumped around 15cm of snow over the Midlands before providing a cm of snow here.

    Edited by Supacell
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    4 minutes ago, Supacell said:

    Reminding me of December 10th last winter, where a front dumped around 15cm of snow over the Midlands before providing a cm of snow here.

    The pedant in me says Derbyshire is in the Midlands.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres
  • Location: Sedgley Black country 731ft 222 metres

    Hirlams take at 48hrs  

    hirlam-1-48-0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
  • Weather Preferences: All
  • Location: 150m asl Hadfield, Glossop Peak District
    Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

    The pedant in me says Derbyshire is in the Midlands.

    Yep but Derby is about 50 miles SSE of where I live.  As you know Glossop is nearly East of Manchester but from a meto view, is in the East Midlands where as I may as well be in the NW. being less than a mile from  the GTR Manc Border.

    Yes it can get bl**dy confusing when the Midlands is mentioned as a sweetspot?

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    Message added by Paul

    Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
    Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

    For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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