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Message added by Paul

Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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4 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

Not all of the Midlands. Snow line stops just a few miles to my south. Makes me laugh how often that happens.

Stoke not that far north, been posted in NW thread, looks okay I thought?

see Wales thread for video about Thursday's snow

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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3 minutes ago, swfc said:

This low could be 200-miles either way come thurs.stop it guys please!!!

Nope - it won't track 200 miles further North i am afraid.

 

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2 minutes ago, swfc said:

This low could be 200-miles either way come thurs.stop it guys please!!!

Honestly I think its unlikely to be that much of a difference from here, the models all pretty much are within a 50 mile location by 48hrs out. There IS some differences in how the front is handled, but not by that much.

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13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Finally, the Met Office contingency planners 3 month forecast issued today - see appropriate thread for detail - uses text to describe likely cold and higher precipitation signals in February in particular that could come from a textbook on likely long term response from a SSW.  Game's still on folks!

Which is the appropriate thread?

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Just now, winterof79 said:

Yes and not one chart posted

For what reason? there available on meteociel.if you don't follow the models I guess you wouldn't know!!it's not rocket science to look without posting 

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1 minute ago, swfc said:

For what reason? there available on meteociel.if you don't follow the models I guess you wouldn't know!!it's not rocket science to look without posting 

Wasn't aimed at you SWFC more the people quoting where ICON is positioning things

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6 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Wasn't aimed at you SWFC more the people quoting where ICON is positioning things

No worries

I'll be glad when this low has gone and normal service on mo can resume !!! Btw will it snow in Sheffield s35 Thurs lol

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16 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

Kind of like where the ICON 18z is going at T99:

image.thumb.jpg.7468cc01d1eb272af21eb45263c90539.jpg

Kind of reminds us we are in a cold setup now, not looking for one.

Seems to have been a running theme so far. Models keen to push systems through the UK taking us into a milder theme, but as we get closer to the time they start to show troughing down through the UK to the south. It's a bit of a stalemate situation, especially with the Siberian high now out to the east preventing any further inroads.

As we have seen, it's not a lot of good for us if it's prolonged snow you are looking for as the trough is just too far east leaving us in a cold, yet not cold enough, NNW to NW flow. The situation almost looks like a phase 6 MJO setup on our side.

If the Canadian vortex ever decides to take a hike west or towards Siberia then we could see some action; towards Siberia would be good as it would drive very cold air down the eastern side of the high pressure as the latter pushed west.

On the other hand, it may be a case of waiting for it to wane enough as it naturally weakens into February.

Finally, we could be left with the stalemate for a while yet. I thought it looked like the UKMO 166 charts showed some signs of disruption so perhaps the cold but not cold enough pattern could stick for a while yet.

We shall see.

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