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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
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ECM ensembles have very strong agreement with UKMO/ECM/ICON. Pretty impressive agreement, though the error is to the south, not to the north. That's not to say the north doesn't get any snow on the ensembles, however the main zone on quite a few is from my line Liverpool-Hull. Quite a few are a decent way below that as well.

We will see what the 18z models show, getting close to agreement now.

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

ECM ensembles have very strong agreement with UKMO/ECM/ICON. Pretty impressive agreement, though the error is to the south, not to the north. That's not to say the north doesn't get any snow on the ensembles, however the main zone on quite a few is from my line Liverpool-Hull. Quite a few are a decent way below that as well.

We will see what the 18z models show, getting close to agreement now.

Do you mean by that being that the northern limit line is Liverpool-Hull? With the heaviest precip further south?

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There's no point being in denial about it, next week becomes less cold on the Ecm 12z ensemble mean as was the case with the GEFS 12z mean..my hope is that the less cold phase proves to be short-lived and that the potentially very cold longer term signal will bear fruit as we go further into february!..

In the meantime, enjoy the wintry fun and games this week..there should be some ice..I mean  nice surprises.??❄️:cold-emoji:

EDM0-168.gif

EDM0-192.gif

EDM0-240.gif

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2 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

There's no point being in denial about it, next week becomes less cold on the Ecm 12z ensemble mean as was the case with the GEFS 12z mean..my hope is that the less cold phase proves to be short-lived and that the potentially very cold longer term signal will bear fruit as we go further into february!..

In the meantime, enjoy the wintry fun and games this week..there should be some ice..I mean  nice surprises.??❄️:cold-emoji:

EDM0-168.gif

EDM0-192.gif

EDM0-240.gif

A short, sharp spell of mild Atlantic filth would fit well with the opinion of Those Who Cannot Be Named...?

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11 minutes ago, kold weather said:

ECM ensembles have very strong agreement with UKMO/ECM/ICON. Pretty impressive agreement, though the error is to the south, not to the north. That's not to say the north doesn't get any snow on the ensembles, however the main zone on quite a few is from my line Liverpool-Hull. Quite a few are a decent way below that as well.

We will see what the 18z models show, getting close to agreement now.

Not sure what you mean by the error being to the south?

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5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

More ensembles are SOUTH of ECM track than are NORTH of the ECM track (I've given a bit of leeway to the ECM track though).

So theres more that go even further south than the ecm?

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Evening! Truly unusual weather territory tonight , A weather front coming in from the west and delivering snow , for some shows how cold the northern hemisphere is. !  Thursdays weather look very interesting as this may well be some of the most disruptive snow for the south of the uk since last March....

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2 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Not too bad then although some with poor orientation, but not bad.

some from an arctic POV https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/north-pole/m8_sea-level-pressure/20190213-0000z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/north-pole/m12_sea-level-pressure/20190213-0000z.html  https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/north-pole/m13_sea-level-pressure/20190213-0000z.html Greenland > https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/north-pole/m14_sea-level-pressure/20190213-0000z.html  https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/north-pole/m18_sea-level-pressure/20190213-0000z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/north-pole/m24_sea-level-pressure/20190213-0000z.html  https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/north-pole/m25_sea-level-pressure/20190213-0000z.html  https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/north-pole/m28_sea-level-pressure/20190213-0000z.html  https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/north-pole/m29_sea-level-pressure/20190213-0000z.html  https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/north-pole/m31_sea-level-pressure/20190213-0000z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/north-pole/m33_sea-level-pressure/20190213-0000z.html  https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/north-pole/m35_sea-level-pressure/20190213-0000z.html https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/north-pole/m37_sea-level-pressure/20190213-0000z.html  https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/north-pole/m38_sea-level-pressure/20190213-0000z.html  https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/north-pole/m43_sea-level-pressure/20190213-0000z.html  https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/north-pole/m44_sea-level-pressure/20190213-0000z.html  https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/north-pole/m46_sea-level-pressure/20190213-0000z.html 

and another quick point - those worrying overly about the position of the PV Greenland / Canada a reminder where it was positioned in the lead up to the beast from the east last year  archivesnh-2018-2-25-0-0.png  archivesnh-2018-2-26-0-0.png 

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2 minutes ago, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

somland / Canada a reminder where it was positioned in the lead up to the beast from the east last year  

True but we knew it was about to be destroyed and sent far away by a wave 2 upwelling.

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Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

True but we knew it was about to be destroyed and sent far away by a wave 2 upwelling.

yes mate just trying to say that even with the PV in that position it does not always = game over for any colder weather affecting us also the lows that it spawns could end up being sliders should there be enough above average heights to the N / NE to force them under ?  (trust me I am as frustrated as many in here as I have not had any snow this winter either, but I refuse to give up on this winter until there is 0 % hope whatsoever and ATM there is still some hope so on we march and hopefully the cold easterly's march toward us)

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1 minute ago, MattStoke said:

ICON very slightly further south on its 18z run.

Yep, less snow for far south due to slightly higher 850hpa temps, still does turn to snow though even to the coast eventually.

Also, slightly faster on this run as well. Midlands get a lot of snow this run!

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2 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yep, less snow for far south due to slightly higher 850hpa temps, still does turn to snow though even to the coast eventually.

Also, slightly faster on this run as well. Midlands get a lot of snow this run!

Not all of the Midlands. Snow line stops just a few miles to my south. Makes me laugh how often that happens.

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5 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Yep, less snow for far south due to slightly higher 850hpa temps, still does turn to snow though even to the coast eventually.

Also, slightly faster on this run as well. Midlands get a lot of snow this run!

Yup the whole of the midlands gets a lot!!good slight upgrade!!

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