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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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6 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

High resolution Euro4 model for midday Thursday, which as far as that model goes. The precipitation looks pretty weak to me.

38C582FE-533A-4B8B-987A-E8BB54B57FDD.jpeg

So Portsmouth the new sweet spot?

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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6 minutes ago, snefnug said:

They

do, don’t they, but would you really, really want them temps that Chicago get hit with tonight?

I would 100% . Not that we will ever get extreme cold like that . ?

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6 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

Extraordinary scenes here this evening. Google 'cork safety alerts'. Can't wait to see how the Thursday low works out

Somewhere in Ireland could get hammered, most likely away from the coast 

Dublin, always found Dublin a good place to get hammered ?

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2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended again looking less cold with some precipitation moving in from the west

ukm2.2019020512_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.251261482fc249c670c8bf848021f132.png

Indeed, as does the GEFS 12z mean...I think there's very good agreement that next week will become less cold as the pattern flattens out but having said that, I'm not anticipating anything particularly mild..just less cold than this week!

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17 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

High resolution Euro4 model for midday Thursday, which as far as that model goes. The precipitation looks pretty weak to me.

38C582FE-533A-4B8B-987A-E8BB54B57FDD.jpeg

4km res aint high

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23 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

High resolution Euro4 model for midday Thursday, which as far as that model goes. The precipitation looks pretty weak to me.

38C582FE-533A-4B8B-987A-E8BB54B57FDD.jpeg

Sorry to ask but do you have a link for that EURO4? 

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28 minutes ago, MattStoke said:

High resolution Euro4 model for midday Thursday, which as far as that model goes. The precipitation looks pretty weak to me.

38C582FE-533A-4B8B-987A-E8BB54B57FDD.jpeg

Chart works a little different mate, it doesn't have an intensity scale it has a weather type scale.

Look at the bottom. 

A bit confused as I thought that model also only went two days out?

Looks okay here

19013112_2912.gif

Edited by Snowman.
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4 minutes ago, Snowman. said:

Chart works a little different mate, it doesn't have an intensity scale it has a weather type scale.

Look at the bottom. 

Maybe ‘patchy’ and ‘not very extensive’ would have been better words to describe it.

It goes out to 54 hours on weather.us

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23 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended again looking less cold with some precipitation moving in from the west

ukm2.2019020512_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.251261482fc249c670c8bf848021f132.png

It's hard to tell on that chart. The 144 had a wedge (yes, I know!) of high pressure just to the east of the low with the system being neutrally tilted. It's a shame we can't see further north and east, because it could be about to disrupt judging by the shape. Also note the kinky isobars on the east of the Azores high.

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31 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

So Portsmouth the new sweet spot?

Well I'll take that for sure personally.

Anyway the front should at least get decently into the Midlands based on that, though how strong it would be remains to be seen. These do have a tendency to shift around somewhat at this stage as well, so don't take those outputs too literally, though looking more likely to be correct at the moment.

PS - weather.us has got 54hrs Euro4.

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1 minute ago, kold weather said:

Here is the link Tim:

https://weather.us/model-charts/gbr-hd

I'm just going to have a look through the ensembles and see where the ECM op run lies, from a quick look at the surface pressures, I'd suggest it is a little on the south side of the ensemble spread.

 

Find out if there is any hints of blocking on some members please, otherwise if there isn't, i am absolutely, totally and unequivocally gutted.

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