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Please ensure that the majority of your posts in this thread are model related - a theme of model discussion needs to run throughout.
Some off topic chat and reactions are ok, but please use other, more relevant threads for entirely off-topic chat (such as snow reports, met office forecasts and general chat/moans about the weather or this winter).

For more no banter and just model discussion please head to the new focused model thread - this is also a great place to post (or cross post) your longer model summaries or thoughts around the models.

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1 minute ago, Mr Brown said:

BBC has 1-3cm for London and southeast. ??

That is based on the 0z cycle and maybe the 06z. They advised that they are uncertain and the Warnings will change if needed!

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For those who think the SSW was a bust take a look at this at T+3   Then look at the NW/SE jet axis over us, then look at the fact that the downwelling has been delayed but is just und

Feel I have an apology to make.  If people are wondering why this thread vanished for almost an hour, basically I went ahead a locked the thread first. Then, went and hid it. Was feeling fed

Leaked express headline for tomorrow.   #sorrynotsorry

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1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

2-8cm majority of Midlands, 1-3cm SE and 5-15cm South Wales they said on BBC

Don’t worry, this is the same company that broadcast quite widely for 1-3 or 2-5CM’s of snow widely throughout central England today, just last night. It’s rained all day with the odd flake on the back end. 

Somewhere from the south coast up to about Worcester should be very happy. That front won’t make it north of Birmingham. Enjoy the snow guys.

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6 minutes ago, kold weather said:

ECM 12z even further south with the main core of precip, Also weaker than 00z/06z with the front than on previous runs. Probably 1-2 inches this run in CS England, SE, Wales and the far south Midlands. North of that and returns rapidly fade away. Heavy snow limited to southern most counties

I'd say its even almost identical to that UKMO by the way.

Great stuff. I was hoping to miss out on yet another event!

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Just now, MattStoke said:

Great stuff. I was hoping to miss out on yet another event!

The ironic thing is, there’s no block to the east to stop the system in its track, which makes the modelling of the low all the worst. After what looked like a promising week for most of england and the north, the much maligned south are on the naughty step for stealing ALL of our snow.

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The precipitation on ECM 12z is very south - hardly makes much of an impression north of London for Thursday evening / Friday.  Pretty light stuff for East Anglia and the Midlands.

Edited by mulzy
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11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

^^^ At 69 / 72 theres a few purple specs in the SE indicating + > 10cm

Although Southern Ireland gets hit hard again...

Less than on previous runs though which were going more towards the 4-5 inch range more generally, now its more limited to areas close to the coast on this range.

Still this maybe just reflective of one of the less impressive ensemble runs, there were a few in there to be fair!

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1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes a weaker northward push - still good ( luckily enough for me but 48 hours is a long time-

Still for southern counties its the best news for them on a snow starved winter !

 

Indeed it is Steve it’s looking more and more like the front might stall and pivot somewhere around Worcester just hope the PPN remains heavy and even us coastal dwellers may get lucky with a cm or 2 

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GFS is often criticised for being too progressive and unable to resolve potential split energy off the Atlantic which is fair to a point but GFS has been leading the way with the possibility of a diving low and split energy creating a block in the mid range while ECM has been incredibly flat in an odd role reversal

EVM/GFS 168

ECH1-168.GIF?29-0gfsnh-0-168.png

 

Given the GFS solution is more in line with what I have been promoting then I hope it is right and ECM ends up with egg on its face, will likely know by tomorrow evening though even if we do get the blocking there will be an awful lot to resolve from there..

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9 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yes a weaker northward push - still good ( luckily enough for me but 48 hours is a long time-

Still for southern counties its the best news for them on a snow starved winter !

 

Will need to see how this compares to the ECM ensembles, I've got to think this maybe on the southern/weaker side of the ensemble range but we will see!

Poor ole GFS is looking rather isolated tonight it has to be said, I'd be stunned if it doesn't get its act together by 00z tomorrow!

Still time for changes as mad as that is, though we should be getting closer to the point of confidence of general locations that are at risk.

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Just now, Kirkcaldy Weather said:

@feb1991blizzard these the kind of charts you are looking for ?  gensnh-18-1-300.thumb.png.606e15e4fe089364859458e4c1d56d3a.pnggensnh-18-1-336.thumb.png.47767bd66a7c06a0202c43083ed8cc49.pnggensnh-18-1-360.thumb.png.e2419863e0b9257ee92c6fbefb18e6f9.pnggensnh-18-1-384.thumb.png.cbb34a4c833090ec4767e3b57ecc9c13.png   

some others gensnh-3-1-384.thumb.png.cb63afa19aa9e79fa08cd3570ed69ad9.png gensnh-5-1-192.thumb.png.24d1f947dc17838465499b257d4093ec.png gens-8-1-336.thumb.png.fad27a2a22ea81d8e3422f0dff175493.png gensnh-17-1-276.thumb.png.47470865d4cbcca3b811cfd0753c4d4b.png gensnh-19-1-384.thumb.png.3615aaebcc28d0f4e55e65aeb3df9792.png gensnh-20-1-312.thumb.png.7d0b8690ea062b720da5057add174658.png  

CMC is what our weather pattern could be if there were no short waves anywhere, oh and it vanquished the Greenland vortex and Azores heights. Best model ever! (No firing squad please) ? 

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If there's something strange in the neighborhood who you going to call?"low busters"!! anyway gFS para looked poor long range,EC looks like manic so I guess it's on to the gFS 18z to low watch.oh the joy!!!

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Gfs, Hirlam Icon have the front further North over Ireland. I note Icon had it more to the south on the last few runs. I don't think the track is nailed yet. Its way out in the Atlantic and such a complex setup,. I think we will have more corrections in the 00z, who knows which model has it correct. 

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